Nolan's article, the NCAAs, and a big change

[TheShrimp]

I enjoyed Nolan's NCAA article, and I appreciate the stats on 1st round games. I've always been a dog bettor in the tourney and agree with many of the reason's Nolan outlined. Travel and nerves can be great equalizers. I also wonder what would happen if you bet a ML on every dog in the first round...Maybe I'll look into it.

However, before anyone goes and bets blindly on the Dogs this year (that's NOT what Nolan was espousing, just to be clear), there is a MAJOR change to consider: High seeded teams are playing near home this year.

That is, a #2 seed Maryland, instead of travelling to BOISE to play Georgia State in the first round, would be playing in the MCI center in DC, in effect giving them a home court advantage. That was an example based on what they did last year. They won't be a 2 seed and GS won't even be in it.

I don't know how much of an effect this is going to have, and I don't know how extensve this change will be, that is: is this courtesy just extended to 1 and 2 seeds, or 1-8 seeds, or 1-4 seeds? Is it even possible to do this for every 1 - 4 seed, or will there be conflicts with two teams that are nearby each other with equal seedings?

Mainly, its just something to look at if you're like me and lean heavily on the dogs in the first round.

Comments welcome if you know more about the logistics, or views on the travel factor.

TheShrimp

 

[rrc]

From today's Chicago Sun Times. The result of the new format will be more highly seeded teams playing before their fans than ever before. It is quite likely, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney said Monday that under the new system,2 conference teams could play in the subregional at the United Center on March 15 and 17. Two more might end up in St. Louis on March 14 and 16, and Ohio State may be asked to go on the relatively short drive to Pittsburgh.
But as more teams receive this sort of favorable treatment, Delaney wondered if more aren't likely to complain. It's one thing when only the few top seeds are given favorable treatment, but look for a chorus of howls when one #8 seed is kept close to home and another is packed off to Sacramento. "We'll get some whining I guarantee you," Delaney said.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Excellent points.

I would like to add a few things:

(1) It remains to be seen if linemakers will make an adjustment to the games where one team enjoys a home court advantage (MD is a perfect example). Let's say they play TEAM X. If that game were to be in Boise, the Terps would be 24 point favorites. But, if the game is at the Capital Arena might the line be 29 instead? This is going to call for some really subjective judgement. It's a very important point to consider, since the home teams could run up the score and cover more easily under the new system.

(2) I had some e-mails from people on this -- Phil Turcotte and other wrote to me asking about the records of the top seeds (or teams that were favored 20+). I also had questions about games where the #7 seed plays the #8 seed. Trouble is, I did not have access to the seedings when I tracked the ATS results. If someone has a record of the seeds ATS, that might be helpful. But, I must confess that I don't have this info and did not even consider the possibility that some seeds might be more favorable (as wagers) than others. I would think the best seeds to bet on would be #8 through #12, but I that's just speculation.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[TheShrimp]

If I understood your last paragraph correctly, you might be 1 off. In the first round, 7 plays 10, 8 plays 9 (1-16, 2-15, etc), and I think traditionally 9 has beat 8 more often than 8 beats 9. Also, 10-7 might be about 50-50, but I think the seedings affect "Polyester Pants" (that'll never die Nolan) more than they should...

If one had the seeds, you could see if betting all lower seeds did better than betting all dogs. e.g. a 9 might be favored over an 8, but not by enough because of the Polyester Premise.

Of course this data is out there. I don't currently have the time to track it down, but maybe I'll nose around the net before the tourney starts and report back.

TheShrimp

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Nice work Shrimp. You are right, that the Polyester will be pounding the upper seeded teams. That would seem to indicate line value on the lower seeded teams. Also, my mix up on the 7=8 seeds, I meant to say 8 vs. 9, etc. That's what happens when you wake up and the first thing you do is make a post.

-- Nolan Dalla