nolan's picks and ensuing comments

[pepin46]

these are nolan's picks and his comments. i will reply with my comments and hope others will add their agreements/disagreements with their reasons.

NFL WEEK 7

Recommendations: I have TEN plays this week. The wheel team is San Francisco, which is included in THREE teaser bets. I also have THREE sides and THREE totals for your consideration.



Pittsburgh -3 (Even) vs. Tennessee (Monday Night)

(Recommended Tuesday)

This line opened at -2.5! I barely missed posting a bet at that number, and got -3 instead. Oddsmakers are essentially suggesting these two teams are EQUAL in talent, since home field is worth ~3 points. Of course, this is misguided, given the direction each team is headed. Steelers are one of the NFL's hottest teams at the moment, with a rare chance to shine on MNF at home in a new stadium, playing against an AFC rival that is struggling badly, especially on defense. The opening line was insane, and at -3, we still have excellent value. This is a BEST BET.



Phoenix (pick'em) vs. Dallas

(Recommended Tuesday)

Cardinals have been hammered in Dallas many times over the years. Now, it's payback time. Line opened at Dallas -2 (another dumb line) and quickly plummeted to pick 'em in Vegas, and Cardinals -1 offshore. Somebody at these sportsbooks is smoking dope. UPDATE: Line is now up to Phoenix by 3.



Oakland +1.5 vs. Philadelphia

(Recommended Wednesday)

Line will probably drop on this game to 1 and perhaps even to pick'em. I'm taking the team that has the better offense, coming in fresh, against a team that played an intense game versus a division rival just 6 days ago.



TEASER: Oakland +7.5 / Carolina +8.5

(Recommended Wednesday)

Obviously, we have to move quickly here to pick-up the teaser and get +7.5 At +7, the strength of this teaser play diminishes somewhat.



TEASER: Oakland +7.5 / San Francisco +8.5

(Recommended Wednesday)

Raiders should keep this game close (at worst), so take the TD plus. 49ers are the first real offense Chicago has faced this season. I expect 49ers may win this game outright. Give me the points.



Miami / Seattle UNDER 37

(Recommended Thursday)

I'm surprised this total hasn't dropped further based on news that QB Hasselbeck is starting for the Seahawks. Total opened at 37.5, dropped to 37 immediately and has held steady ever since.



NY Jets / Carolina UNDER 39.5

(Recommended Thursday)

Total will probably stay up around 39, but could drop if rain develops. There are some handicappers that expect points to be scored in this game, but I 'don't see it happening.



TEASER: San Francisco +8.5 / San Diego -2.5

(Recommended Thursday)

I'll tease these two teams, solid on both sides of the ball, across the key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7.



New Orleans / St. Louis UNDER 49

(Recommended Thursday)

This total appears a bit high, considering both defenses are above average. Total is probably tainted a bit by fears that Rams could score lots of points, but keep in mind in ALL THREE GAMES last season between these two teams, St. Louis was held under 30 points.



TEASER: San Francisco +8.5 / NY Giants -1.5

(Recommended Thursday)

I'll include the Giants on a teaser, as well, which should rebound strongly after a disappointing MNF loss to the Eagles. Pressure may be off the Redskins this week somewhat, after picking up their first win.

end of nolan's picks and comments.

 

[pepin46]

well, i am glad we have different directions this week:

tenn/pitt

i am not sold on pitt just sweeping everything that comes their way. there are many reasons to actually pick tenn in this confrontation, among them:

the line itself is "off" what would be a normal tenn-2 or -3, based on tenn's recent weakness and pitt solid wins. fair enough for expectations, as that is where it should be. that is the "sticker" price.

pitt has been a so-so team for the last few years and nothing is really different, except that they have been taken lightly in my opinion. let's face it: the mighty tampa bay worried about pitt? nah. i had pitt in that game, btw.

ok, so jerome bettis, who has been with them for many years, is suddenly finding many holes and running up a storm, setting up their 17-20 point scores, keeping those drives long and alive, and thus, their defense has been superb, no question about it.

so now we have a match-up of, on the one hand, one team struggling to re-gain their status as one of the teams to beat, and a re-born team with nothing new to offer, but has managed a few straight wins against decent teams.

not that there is any consolation, but tenn has won 7 straight from pitt, although most have been close, but nevertheless wins. this fact alone will keep me away from pitt.

other things come into play, like, will tenn just allow bettis to roam free? can he just run at will, not being a surprise that if you stop bettis, you beat pitt? is tenn that ignorant or is their defensive line that hopeless?

conclusion on tenn/pitt: pass or tease tenn +9.

i don't have any conflicts with the rest of the picks, and rather agree strongly on teasing oak +8.5 with your favorite teams.

i will add the following, which i believe nolan may have overlooked:

balt -7.5 how low can you go, baby? if there is a game where balt can put their stuff together, this is the one, at home. they are worth at least a spot on a teaser, possible a pick.

n.e./denver

indy is terrible, n.e. is lucky, they have their number, n.e. lost to miami. yeah, yeah. there is one little number, though: brady and n.e. are kicking a..., they really have their act together and still getting 7 to boot! macaffrey's absence, as pointed out by my friend bernie, will keep making the difference. n.e. is a pick and also worth a small money line wager. it looks like n.e. will keep rolling until they run into a strong defense.

buff/s.d.

you guys keep playing your dogs, and leave s.d. to me. this revenge or whatever works both ways, so they cancel out. s.d. still in the comforts of home faces a clueless team. even in a low scoring affair, s.d. will not leave the door open and try to seal this with at least a 2 td advantage. line is down to 7, at 6.5 a gift. i have already played them at -8.

not quite yet a pick, but a strong suspicion:

nygiants/wash

they are both having their own problems, but...wash was real close the last time before a late interception made the score look better for the giants. giants looked awful vs. philly, losing their marbles in the last quarter. wash struggled vs carol, but they did pull the win.

the key in this game is the absurd line: 7.5. that is two scores from a team who cannot score. any kind of half-a...game plan by wash with a little surprise here and there will cover this line.

anyone who played the giants vs. wash last time or vs philly last week will surely identify with this opinion.


pep

 

[pepin46]

updating

s.f.+ points

wrong team favored here. s.f. controls the air and the game. last year it was 17-0 in s.f., this year 17-10?


pep

p.s.

4bubba's stats and comments on game:

schedule and results
SF
ATL -won 13-10 OT
STL -lost 26-30
@NYJ -won 19-17
CAR -won 24-14
@ATL -won 37-31 OT
SF is off a bye week. Except for STL they really havent been challenged by a better team. They have done what was required to win. 4-1 is a great mark so far. They seem to be playing together, O and D.
CHI
@BAL -lost 6-17
MIN -won 17-10
@ATL -won 31-3
ARI -won 20-13
@CIN -won 24-0
CHI has overachieved so far this year. SF will be the best balanced team they have faced this year. There defense has been playing great and I am sure they are praying for rain this weekend.
This could turn out to be the best game of the weekend. CHI is also 4-1.
Who would have thought that SF and CHI would be 8-2 at this point?

end of 4bubba's comments



[This message has been edited by pepin46 (edited 10-26-2001).]

 

[GM]

Gotta go with Chicago this week. Look at that total creampuff schedule SF has played. They barely squeak by a weak Atl squad twice, eek out a win over the Jets, and were it not for Carolina's total ineptness in the redzone (not in just this game, but every week) they could have lost that game. They DID hang close to St Louis.

Chicago's loss to Baltimore was much closer than the score indicates, hanging tough until late in the game. They beat a team (Minn) that many thought going into this season was superior to the Bears. Shutout Cinci who had previously been very hot on their own field...and throw in a laugher vs Atlanta (team that SF barely beat twice), and a mediocre performance vs Ariz.

All in all that makes Chi's performances a lot more impressive than San Fran's thus far. Only thing I am worried about is that Chi has not faced too many teams with the kind of offensive threats that San Fran has (maybe Minnesota, but they were not clicking well when Chi met them, other than that, no one comes close).

I will still take the Bears to cruise on their home turf.

 

[pepin46]

gm

i should have expanded a bit:

your points are valid and the reason why chi is favorite here.

chicago is now, as a result of their generating some offense, a defense to fear. they have shown they can dominate the best. that, together with some scoring, has been more than enough to put them at 4-1.

chicago is excellent against the run, and this in itself forces opponents to play a one-dimensional game, something that was not in their plans, plus, most teams need a balanced offense in order to be effective. most teams except s.f.

we have to go back to last year's confrontation in s.f. to get an idea: s.f., if memory serves me right, ran for only about 60 yards, took the lead and basically had an easy game, not having to worry about a chicago comeback. the final was 17-0. they won the game in the air, and thru the air also dominated the time of possesion, somewhere around 40 minutes. that means a lot of successful inbounds passes. that is their offense, and some teams can defense it better than others. apparently, this is the bears' aquilles heel.

true, chicago is very aware of this and they will try to set their game plan to adjust to the s.f. air attack. how succesful they will be, or will that open up some run opportunities for s.f., well, that is part of both team's game plans and to be seen.

i can assume that s.f. will not dominate the time of possesion like they did last year, if only because chicago should generate some drives and score. however, i also assume that s.f. will keep driving and scoring thru the air as they have successfully in the past against chicago.

i expect this game to be a lot tighter than last year's, but also keep in mind that s.f. had no pressure to put any more points on the board. it was a very easy game for them.

conclusion:

to expect that chicago will be able to turn everything around just because they have generated some offense this year would be on the hopeful side. they should be able to put scoring pressure on s.f., and prior performance tells me s.f. will be able to respond to the challenge. i have to go with what appears to be the sure side, and expect s.f. to be able to clear at least a 4 point win over the bears, somewhere in the area of 17-13, 20-16 or so. it could also get ugly if chicago scores more than expected and forces s.f. to go all out.

if nothing else, it should be an enjoyable game to watch.


pep

 

[djv]

Chicago just lost there top receiver or one of there top two. Another part of a so/so O is gone. there going to play D alright. and Sf is playing that alittle better two. They want to leave that total 39.5 infact local has it 40.5. Ill take under. And if it is low scoring give me the points.

 

[djv]

Pep it's funny I like most of there plays to. Infact on a tez I like NYG better then Carolina. I would drop Carolina. You get a team you don't trust to much and that's what happens. Your thoughts on Pitt are some what like mind. I cant call them a BB. I will use then but lightly. I think they areon a roll. But if Tenn is going to stop the bleeding it must be this week or for get them. One last thing. I can't get anyone to think under in that Pitt game. That 37 in agame I have at 33 is to hard not to play under.

 

[Super Idiota]

Go 49ers!

Chicago Bears will go down!

 

[pepin46]

djv

even though my scenario calls for a 27-37 point game, i guess people are guessing s.f. is going to press on, plus some chi scoring= over. small play on the parlay that way, coupled with n.e. and over, who i also think is going to take it and push it over.

if only it was as easy as writing it here, eh?


gl

pep