nolan's picks-comments

[pepin46]

<<<<<<< NFL WEEK 4 >>>>>>>

RECOMMENDED PLAYS:

CINCINNATI +6 vs. PITTSBURGH (recommended Tuesday)

Linesmakers have opened with an absurd line in this game. Get on this quick before it drops to +5.5 or lower. This line should be Steelers by -3.5 (at the most). NOTE: Line opened at +6.5, which dropped to +6 within minutes. WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Line down to +5.5 at the Mirage. THURSDAY UPDATE: Line down to +5 across-the-board. FRIDAY UPDATE: Line down to +4.5 at the Mirage



TEASE CINCINNATI +12/GREEN BAY +9 (recommended Tuesday)

I've struggled badly with teasers this season, but here's a great opportunity to play the live dog Bengals, getting double-digits against an offense that doesn't score many points. You may want to wheel this teaser with the board (see above). Best teaser appears to play this side with the Packers getting +9 (another live dog). In both cases, we're betting the stronger, more balanced teams.



TEASE CINCINNATI +12/PHOENIX +20.5

See comments above. Phoenix has played poorly thus far. But they are not in the same class with Dallas or Washington (both with terrible defenses and huge QB problems). Public is over-reacting here. I'll fade the public perception.



TENNESSEE +4 vs. BALTIMORE (recommended Tuesday)

Line could drop to 3.5 In a low-scoring game, points will be at a premium. Take the live division dog. UPDATE: Line now down to +3.5



NOR / MINNE UNDER 44 (recommended Tuesday)

I love this game to go UNDER the total based on two struggling offenses, the Saints excellent defense, and a total off by at least 3 points. Total opened at 42 and zoomed up to 44. I love it!



GREEN BAY +3 (-120) vs. TAMPA BAY (recommended Tuesday)

Line could drop to -2.5. Lay the extra vig at -120 and jump on the extra FG with the better team on a roll. Does anyone believe in the Tampa offense -- which struggled badly at Dallas and Minnesota (two of the NFC's worst defenses)?



MIAMI / NEW ENGLAND UNDER 36.5 (recommended Wednesday)

I love the hook on 36. I expect a game of FGs. Many FGs. In a perfect letdown situation here for New England, Patriots may not break 10 points in this game.



PHOENIX +14.5 vs. PHILADELPHIA (recommended Wednesday)

The hook on 14 is critical. Get this before it drops to 14, or 13.5

NOTE: Line dropped to 14 -- which is a much weaker play at this number.



NY JETS / BUFFALO UNDER 36 (recommended Wednesday)

Total is almost certain to drop. Get on this now. Why isn't this total closer to 34?



WASHINGTON/NY GIANTS OVER 35.5 (recommended Friday)

Total just dropped to 35.5. The bonus half point moving off of 36 is enough for me to make this play early. Play up to 36?..pass on 36.5

 

[pepin46]

cinci

certainly getting a lot of attention, and judging by the big drop in the line, nolan is not the only one chasing cinci here.

if we key on cinci alone, we find that they beat the line/won with balt, based almost exclusively on baltimore's turnovers, and kudos to them for taking advantage of the opportunity. that is a plus.

they go to san diego and hold their own for the first half, get no gifts from s.d., who patiently wait for their break and puts the game away without questions.

now, my first reaction when i saw the line was that indeed, for a pitt team that has problems scoring, and a cinci team that shows some improvement and team spirit this year, the 6 may be a lot to ask.

but taking everything into account, including kitna's propensity for interceptions, i would look for a fairly even game for the first 3 quarters, and once again, pitt waiting for their break to win the game. in my mind, the fourth quarter will determine the winner and the cover, and the potential for the pitt defense to do some scoring. pass on the straight pick, but have done teasers with cinci at +13, though.

tenn

tenn needs this one desperately, so baltimore is going to sit on their laurels? i don't think so. balt wants this one as much as any other game, and need to show themselves and the world that they are for real. a balt loss would be devastating, to say the least. baltimore to cover.

green bay

the superior team gets points,take them. they have a history of tight games and the recent performance tilts the balance in favor of green bay.

wash/giants over

here we are trying to guess the giants game plan, what we think or what we would do, and i for one, find that perfectly acceptable. wash needs to get something going, anything, and the giants need a break out game and take chances on their offense, which is suspect, to say the least. if there is a spot for that kind of experiment, this is it.
k.c. got a temporary moral boost from their big win at wash, and so should the giants offense. agree on the over.


adding:

i could not let the san diego pick escape here. we may all look back in a couple of months and say: how could i have missed it?
defensively, this is the best team s.d. will have faced so far, but the same applies to cleveland facing s.d.'s offense (and defense). give the points while s.d. is still cheap, and don't be surprised if this becomes a scoring festival.


pep

 

[pepin46]

update:

now that i have had a chance to look beyond the surface, new england is in a good spot to cover an outrageous amount of points given to miami.

brady's performance last week was flawless, and as long as he sticks to basic football, this game should end up in the 13-10 range or so, with either team having a shot at it.

nolan's under looks solid here as well.

pep

p.s.

changing baltimore to a pass, rather than a pick. this is too important for both of them and should be very tight at the end. 4 looks like too much in this spot.

[This message has been edited by pepin46 (edited 10-06-2001).]

 

[count zero]

Sub QBs starting for injured regulars have an outstanding ATS record in their first game, as the rest of the team tries to compensate. But they tend to play back to their usual level in subsequent games. Unfortunately, not the kind of thing you can run through a database, but guessing other posters have noticed the same thing.