nolan's picks/comments

[pepin46]

this page is an extract of nolan's picks. i will reply and hope others will as well.

nolan's picks:

Buffalo +9 vs. Jacksonville -- WON

This game went exactly as planned. Look for steady improvement by Buffalo in coming weeks.

TEASER: Buffalo +15 / Phoenix +8.5 (Recommended Monday)

I can't envision the Jags winning here by more than two TDs. In the second game, Cardinals are roughly on equal par with Kansas City. Give me lots of points with the home dog.


TEASER: Buffalo +15 / Pittsburgh +12 (Recommended Monday)

Steelers are playing much better football right now than Tampa. They have a better running game. Their defense is at least as solid -- maybe more so. The bye week doesn't seem to help many teams thus far (home team off a bye is 0-4 ATS this season), so I'm taking all these sweet points.


Pittsburgh +6 vs. Tampa Bay (Recommended Monday)

Steelers are clearly the better team at the moment. Better running game. Stronger defense. And they're getting 6 points? Give them to me. NOTE: Line dropped to 5.5 at most books -- and is 4.5 at CRIS!


Tennessee / Detroit OVER 37.5 (Recommended Monday)

Both teams are playing horrible defense. I mean just dreadful! In a dome, with QB Batch back as the starter -- give me the OVER.


TEASER: Pittsburgh +12 / Phoenix +8.5 (Recommended Monday)

I like both dogs to quite possibly win outright here. In the teaser we pick up key numbers 3, 4, 6, 7 on both games -- and 10 and 11 in the case of Pittsburgh.


Washington +3.5 vs. Carolina (Recommended Wednesday)

Oddsmakers are over-reacting to Redskins troubles. Look for Washington to possibly pick-up their first win of the season here. I love the hook on the 3, so I'm putting this bet down now.


TEASER: Baltimore-1.5 / Phoenix +8.5 (Recommended Thursday)

TEASER: Baltimore-1.5 / Pitt +12 (Recommended Thursday)

THIS IS THE BEST BET OF THE WEEK, IN MY VIEW (see new category -- BEST BETS)


TEASER: Baltimore-1.5 / Buffalo +15 (Recommended Thursday)


TEASER: Baltimore-1.5 / Wash +9.5 (Recommended Thursday)


Baltimore -7 (buy half point at -120) vs. Cleveland (Recommended Thursday) I'm confident of a Ravens' SU win, so I would be remiss not pick them in a side wager, as well. I don't like the half-point in a division road game, so I'll lay the extra vig to pick up the 7.

Philadelphia/NY Giants UNDER 35.5 (Recommended Friday)

This total may hold ~35, since MNF games get lots of betting action and the OVER crowd may keep this total stable.

end of nolan's picks

 

[yyz]

Originally posted by pepin46:
Oddsmakers are over-reacting to Redskins troubles.

That is not possible.......

 

[pepin46]

it is no secret for those who frequent this site, that both nolan and i, and a couple other cappers, have had our share of disappointents this season. although we work independently, apparently some of our thinking is along the same lines, as per our records.

regardless, that buffalo cover/win really boosted my morale, and by the looks of nolan's picks, his as well.

as far as his picks, i see a bunch of teasers, perhaps defensively, and i must admit i agree with all his teaser selections.

there are two items that i would question, if you will, which are: messing with the carol/wash game, and the giants under. i do lean to the giants under, but think it will be too close to actually commit, as it could tilt easily one way or the other with a field goal.

some plays i see that nolan did not touch:

denver/san diego

i have been burned twice in a row with s.d., but this looks like finally the right spot. their two previous road games included teams that had shown significant recent changes, which by the looks of it, have been positive. they finally get to play a team that there is plently of film on, and is on a slight down-turn. s.d. should be able to win this game and thus the spread.

tenn/detroit

very strong play with batch and a different psychology for the team in general. detroit, loose as a goose, will re-gain their home pride in this spot against a team who is seriously questioning not only the playoffs, but a winning season. i'm looking for the old detroit to dominate in a low scoring affair.

green bay/minny

another interesting game. green bay won some sort of superbowl last week and now face a joke of a minny team that is slowly putting it together in my opinion. yes, detroit made a tremendous come back in the latter stages of the game, but give credit to minny for doing everything right for most of the game and opening up a nice lead. sure, this is green bay, but minny is on a rebound. they will probably be taken lightly and give minny a chance for a win. the 3 point line is no coincidence, even though money should be pouring in for g.b.

kc/ariz

i had such high hopes for green and co., but have given up on them, not seeing any light at the end of the tunnel. they really have no business giving anyone points, especially away. ariz and plummer should shine here.

philly/giants

the giants own philly. that is a fact, and much more so at home. the 3 points become a laugher. give them.

pep

 

[pepin46]

good point, yyz, i missed that one.


pep

 

[PacMan]

Originally posted by pepin46:

green bay/minny

they (Minnesota) will probably be taken lightly

I completely disagree with this statement. I grew up in Wisconsin, and now live in the Twin Cities. I'm quite aware of how these teams feel about each other. Unless a team is up three touchdowns or more, I can't imagine either team backing down or taking the other lightly. In my (sheltered life) opinion, this is one of the leagues biggest/best rivalries.

I think you'd be hard pressed to find any Packers or Vikings fan who thinks the Packers would take this game lightly. (Unless it's a Vikings fan who don't know jack.)

I'll admit I'm a Vikings fan, so consider that. If you do want to take my word for it, give the points here or leave it alone. The total looks about right.

Good luck.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

XYZ:

I probably phrased that wrong. No one is more critical about Washington's situation, and the messed-up team and coaching staff, that I am. In fact, I was among the early critics of Shottenheimer's "PRE-SEASON GAMES DON'T MEAN ANYTHING" mentality. B*llsh*t! When a new coach comes into camp he MUST establish some confidence with the veterans and young players. He need not necessarily win the pre-season games, but the team must click and play well to a certain extent. Shottenehimer IGNORED all the early warning signs, told everyone to stay clam, and the thing snowballed and blew up in his face.

Nevertheless....

Washington has FINALLY shown some life in the last two games, leading in one in the fourth, and tied in the other. This is SIGNIFICANT improvement for a team that was TOTALLY uncompetitive for it's first seven games under Shottenheimer. I suggest odddmakers ARE over-reacting to the Redskins 0-5 record here. I think this team stinks, but even bad teams can play well and cover at any time. I think this is the week the Redskins do so.

My word choice of "over-reaction" was also in part due to Carolina as the opponent. Should a 1-4 road team EVER be a road favorite of 3.5 points? I don't think so.

Still, I do understand your point -- which is to emphasize how bad the Redskins are at this point.

To Shottenheimer -- What was that again about "PRE-SEASON GAMES DON'T MATTER?"

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[PacMan]

Originally posted by pepin46:

tenn/detroit

i'm looking for the old detroit to dominate in a low scoring affair.

Sorry - playing devil's advocate again.

Does Detroit have even *four* healthy defensive backs this week? Rice and Fair are expected to play, but in what condition? Westbrook *could* play in the nickel. Schulz is still out.

Detroit injury report (DBs only)
S Kurt Schulz Back Out
CB Bryant Westbrook Achilles Doubtful
S Tommy Bennett Hamstring Questionable
CB Terry Fair Foot Probable
S Ron Rice Ankle Probable
CB Todd Lyght Shoulder Probable


For Tennessee, Samari Rolle and Blaine Bishop are Questionable. So is Eddie George. If Eddie isn't healthy enough to play, that means 2nd year, 7th round draft pick Mike Green, with his 6 career rushes, is the starting halfback.

Tennessee should be able to throw on Detroit, and they may have to, since their running game is getting them nowhere. (George is averaging a whopping 3.0 yds/rush) I realize their receiving core isn't exactly world class, but against this beat up Lions secondary, they should hold their own.

Based on that info alone, I'd lean toward the over if anything. I doubt I'll play it, but I have to say the under doesn't look good to me.

I agree on your Arizona and Giants picks. Both look solid. I'll take a closer look at the Chargers after seeing your write up.

Good luck.

P.S. - I always look forward to your analyses, and appreciate that you share the results of your hard work. Thanks!

 

[pepin46]

pacman

good points. in detroit, i am looking more at the pshychology of the game, and where both teams stand. for sure, the "old" detroit would give tenn a run for their money with a good chance of an upset. you really must wonder about tenn's performance so far. detroit, in my opinion, in the uppity, starting with the last quarters of last week and qb chance. tenn win last week was, errr, whatever.

as far as g.b.: while nobody will dream they will treat it as a scrimmage, there is no way they will be as pumped up and ready as they were last week, especially after the fiasco in tampa. i wonder how long it took them to get that win out of their minds, if they have at all. i still think it is a good spot for a slip-up. take a hint from the line itself.

as far as my work, well, i have always said that it is easier to criticize (agree or disagree) with the man (nolan) than to expose my original thoughts. i know nolan likes the challenge, and we believe it is a nice plus for the forum.

sure would like to see more input, especially on the tenn/detroit and green b/minny.


pep

 

[PacMan]

pepin - I have no disagreements with taking the Lions and the points. My reservations are with the under. Yes, 39 isn't exactly a low total for a NFL game - Only 30 of 72 games thus far have topped it.

I just don't like the (good) chance that Tennessee may be forced to pass, considering the condition of the Lions secondary.

I don't think Det/Ten under is a bad pick, just don't know if it's good enough to play.

Anyone else?

 

[PacMan]

As far as the Redskins go, I HATED that pick at first. After talking it over with another capper, I realized it does have value. Especially since I was able to get the 'Skins at +4.5.

I personally believe that Washington is the *worst* coached team in the NFL. I have seen way too many 3-4 yard passes from them on 3rd and long, with no lead blocking. You just don't move the chains that way.

But... Carolina, despite the fact that they won as a major dog in week one, is not exactly a great team. It wouldn't surprise me if they win this game, but by four points, on the road, the way they've been playing, might be a stretch for them.

Plus, Washington has stayed in the last two. They lost in Dallas on a last second FG (not much consolation for losing to Dallas), but they did keep it close with the Giants.

Anyway, I have to agree with Nolan. No matter how bad Washington is, taking them +3.5 or better against a 1-4 team is the right call.

 

[PacMan]

Another reason I like the Packers -3 is because of Minny's horrible offenive line. If you've watched Minny over the past season and a half, you know that Culpepper is one tough customer to sack. Unless you get in untouched on a blitz, you're not taking him down alone. At least two people need to penetrate; he can almost always get away (run from, shake off) from one pass rusher.

On that note, here's a little trivia question. Guess which NFC Quarterback has been sacked the most times this year? Answer: Daunte Culpepper. He's been sacked 17 times already this year.

Another interesting trivia question: Guess which NFC Quarterback has thrown the most interceptions this year? Yep, you guessed it, Daunte Culpepper.

The reason Culpepper leads the NFC in times sacked and INTs is because of Minnesota's horrendous offensive line. Vikings running backs are averaging just under 3.4 yds/rush. The only reason their rushing stats are mildly respectable is because Culpepper has scrambled well. Big deal when he runs for 8 yards on 3rd and 10.

Toss in Culpepper's three lost fumbles (or is it four?), and Minnesota is a sweet -7 net in giveaways/takeaways. That's second to last in the NFC to Detroit, who Minnesota barely beat. (Green Bay is an NFC leading +6)

With Bennett out, this offense is quite one-dimensional. That may not seem like a bad thing for Minnesota; their passing game is quite strong. It just makes it much easier for the defense to play well, concentrating on the passing game, knowing that Chapman isn't going to break away on too many runs.

Another stat: Vikings (team) sacks: 7. Gbaja-Biamila for the Packers has 9. (Team has 21) Packers come in with the 2nd highest rated offense in the NFC, and the top rated pass defense in the NFC. Plus, Packers won both games last year by 5 and 6 points.

The Packers should have Culpepper running all game. If he can't even get his first read, the Vikings are toast.

Anyway, yes, they (Vikings) did play fairly well the first three quarters of last week. But they did it at home vs. an inferior team, with a badly beat up secondary.

In summary, you're right. The Packers -3 sure looks like a sucker bet. I guess I'll be the sucker this week.

 

[pepin46]

i just looked at the hilton numbers, and i guess your argument and theirs will be enough to make skip this one (minny), as i have about 8 games to narrow down to 5. i still think it is going to be a tight game and minny may just "steal" it, despite their shortcomings.

also, the ariz game is pretty tight. s.d. is an overwhelming favorite, reinforcing my belief, so are n.e., pitt and the jets, which i also have marked.

i'll be jumping over to the nfl match-ups to dig a little deeper into the games.

gl

pep