nolan's picks/follow-up comments

[pepin46]

well, who is this new guy? no contrarian play, no teaser wheels?

these are an extract of nolan's plays:

Philadelphia/Dallas UNDER 37.5 (BEST BET)

NO PLAY at 36.5 or lower.



Buffalo +3.5 vs. Seattle

NO PLAY at +2.5 or lower.



Tennessee / Cincinnati UNDER 39.5

NO PLAY at 37.5 or lower.



Chicago +5 vs. Tampa Bay

Play Bears getting +4 or more.



TEASER: Baltimore -2 / San Francisco -1

plays must be at 2.5 or less. Otherwise, NO PLAY.



Detroit / Phoenix UNDER 39.5

end of nolan's plays.

 

[pepin46]

a full detail of nolan's comments and reasons for his picks is in the "free picks" folder, if you are not familiar with it.

these are my(pep) comments on nolan's picks:

phil/dallas
looks like an excellent choice, and i would make it a best bet as well.

buff/seattle
i believe the "sandwich" aspect is already reflected in the line. nolan mentioned how seattle got beat by wash, but i do believe that is a special situation, where wash was and probably still is developing a much improved offense. due to buff's inability to score, and seeing a much improved defense from seattle, i would have to strongly disagree here and pick seattle.

chi/tampa
i will skip this one for one very good reason: you just don't know which dungy/tampa team will show up this sunday.

detroit/phoenix

i would pass on the under here, but would not go against nolan, as he has a pretty good handle on these types of games.

as far as balt/clev. i don't know, i am not even sure balt is the right side here, although the line suggests so. i would rather go with oak in a teaser, but then again, who knows.

i would add the following plays:

wash +8
wash is showing some very strong number trends that are hard to go against. wash knows exactly what has to be done in denver. does denver know how to beat the on-the-uppity wash? i have doubts. take the points.

clev +8
no matter all the arguments that can be brought up for balt, there is no way in the world i would give 8 points, and the logical result of such a statement is to pick clev.

jets +6
again, another very strong trend. ok, so they(jets) are not that good, but will rise to the ocassion once in a while. well, this is one of those ocassions, one of those that keeps passions burning. do you want to be the one who guesses when miami will finally beat the jets? not me. this is almost a must bet. take the points.

s.d./oak

a wonderful spot to pick up some (i didn't say this) easy money. s.d. is due for a real embarassment they way they are going, and oak will be more than happy to please. what, 9? pocket change here.

to win in the nfl, it takes b...s. these are the ones that i can't pull the trigger on, but have a notion......

carolina
cinci
jax
n.e.

still, it is only friday, so who knows.

pep

 

[pepin46]

i take back the jets not playing well. a 6-3 record is nothing to sneeze at in this very competitive league.


pep

 

[djv]

Ok my bud Nolan is back in his more normal flow. Pep I don't have time to be short and to the point. But will be back later. I payed great attention in the way things were said last week and my own thoughts that mixed well or did not. Some how came up with a nice Sunday. And that was not easy last week for many. This year has been a little stranger then most. So I got to see if there some magic here this week to. Later.

 

[djv]

Well I was a little differant last week with my ideas. Glad I was. Seems the consensus or tail jumpers just add to the down fall. We have to get diffeant ideas or it does no good to discuss any of this. Be differant, well you can't on everything it's just not that easy. However Philly under is mentioned it makes sence. Tenn under I have no idea. Rather say that, then say boy Tenn under is the play. Chigo looks good and there trying to win. BUT I think there a year away and will not cover here. More below on Chigo. Buff make sence. Seattle let down should be reason. Balt and S Fran tezed. As I said before im not high on many of these. Im just not a big parlay player. But this one I like. It just has the feal. Anytime someone says you cant cap a game because you have a feal for it. Tell them BS. Det under. Im going over. What the heck they will both end up throwing the ball up for anyone to get. They are throwing the ball over 70% of the time both teams. I just cant play under. No one mention Buff under. We have a low scoring team playing a team off a emotional high and points will not come easy. TBay over. Yes over. Pitt under. Pitt runs ball all day. Jack D is almost as good. Jacks D a little weeker at pass D. When does Pitt pass only when necessary. Does Pitt have enough revenge in ther heart for loss earlier this year to cover. Looks like odds maker made the line to tight to call that. Monday look for some points. Its do or die for the Vikes NY will even score on this D its going over. Use Balt in a tez I said I agree. How about Balt and Chigo If you like Chigo at +5 why not +11. In fact some place TB is at-5.5. Balt/Chigo tez. Im done said to much. GL To All
Nolan I miss the broadcasts they were fun.

 

[pepin46]

the more i think about this buff game, the more i am convincing myself it will be a 3-4 point game, hopefully 4. can't for the life of me see buffalo winning here, despite the arguments against seattle. the minuses at buffalo overwhelm seattle's situation.

i have also convinced myself that detroit will push the game in ariz over and win it outright, although picking against nolan here is a bit masochistic.


pep

 

[djv]

Pep not to worry. Nolan Believes in others having some ideas. He wants to win just as we do. And I believe He wants us to speak our minds. For everyone to just say ok got to go this way. Hell nobody learns. So I was asked how can you learn. Well after the game is over I look to see what Nolan said. I look to see what you said. I take a look at our match up site to see what other said. Then I can say Dam I missed that. I just learned something. Even if my work has me on the right side. I learned from what I did that worked for that game. And maybe you guys see what I said and say. Yup see what he meant. Now I do not write as much as some do here. I hate to type. But when I say it I try to say enough to help. GL Tomorrow To all.

 

[kcwolf]

Nice conversation fellas. Going to interject a few thoughts and ramblings.

Not one to cut and paste the "perfect" word perfect post. So bear with.......

Would like to start with a subject that kind of relates to what you are talking about, also relates to Nolan and his "change" this year.

More than any other sport, line moves in the NFL dictate my wagers. The NFL is a tough sport to excel in, ask any local book willing to tell you the truth.

There are obvious reasons for making plays early, but I prefer laying a wager late. Most important reason revolves around injuries - sometimes due to the "felonious" reports from the teams reporting in, more times because of practice causing injuries. I'm just not willing to play hard earned money before teams are done practicing for the week.

Yes, this "might" cost me a play or two per week.

Forget the last sentence, as I threw it in for debate. Sure, if all goes well, with no injuries, and you can predict the weather early - by all means place your wager early.

Well, I can't assume, no injuries, and sure as hell can't predict the weather on Tuesday, let alone Saturday morning. The Weather Channel and my local TV weather person are not all that reliable. I play on Sunday morning!

IMHO, more chances to win playing late. Knowing I may miss one oportunity, but probably gaining 3 better chances to win playing late.

Sorry to wear you out with this lengthy prelude. But it does bring me back to my point about Nolan.

Nolan used to post on Saturday or early Sunday morning. I don't know Mr. Dalla's thinking on this subject, but he was far more successful posting along that time line.

May have nothing to do with his success, as it may only try and fortify my reasoning. My small thinking.

Anyone heard enough? Probably and don't blame you.

A few shallow thoughts on Nolan's picks, the topic of this thread. I need to read a couple of books worth of information yet. It's all printed out, laying on my desk.

PHI/DAL un 37.5 - Line has already dropped a half. QB roulette for Dallas makes this a little foggy, but agree for now.

Buffalo +3.5 Would not play Seattle.

Tennessee un 39.5 Looks good, also favor TEN.

Bears +5 Love it! Expect to see +6 tomorrow, already at +5.5.

Teasers: Not interested.

Det/Arz un 39.5 Maybe

Enough bull for tonight.

Think unders and dogs in the NFL first. Then make adjustments as need be.

kcwolf