nolans thoughts on teasers
- Thread starter theGibber1
- Start date
Yes very impressive stats that on the surface make one want to jump out and start playing the home teams crossing 3,4,6,7 blindly. There is an important stat that Nolan has not put up and it may shed some light on just how valuable crossing the key numbers are(I have always maintained that the only time I would ever play a teaser was in football when crossing all 4 key numbers). The Stat I am looking for is what did these games hit ATS without teasing. In other words if the +1.5 to +2.5 home teams in this sample hit 58% ATS then the teaser aspect accounted for only an addittional 23%, where as if they hit 50% ATS then the teaser aspect accounted for an addittional 31%. Without this information the stats mentioned are potentially very misleading. Nolan, would appreciate it if you could provide the actual ATS prior to teasing of these games for each category mentioned. Great info.
I wish I could do that. However, I do not have the database to be able to run these numbers, other than doing it longhand.
I agree that knowing HOW MUCH ADVANTAGE we pick up by crossing 3,4,6, and 7 would be interesting. However, I'm not sure it's useful in discerning WHICH games to tease amongst those home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5.
Again -- I want to point out that what we are doing here is somewhat on the cutting edge, since very little has been written or published publically on teasers. We have a lot of talented people here, so if someone wants to run some numbers, I'm sure everyone would be grateful.
In the meantime, I'm going to continue looking at various number combinations.
I do what to point out one error in my write up yesterday. I blindly copied the winning percentage of this angle from a chart which said it was an 82 percent play. The correct percentage (134-39) is actually a bit over 77 percent. So, that's a noteworthy correction. This actually means that the BEST TEASER play may be teasing home favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 DOWN to -2.5 or lower. That's almost an 80 percent play (130-33).
The point is -- there are at least four angles which make teasers potentially profitable.
I still have lots of work to do. I hope readers will understand that there is a "learning curve" inherent in this process of discovery.
-- Nolan Dallla
I agree that knowing HOW MUCH ADVANTAGE we pick up by crossing 3,4,6, and 7 would be interesting. However, I'm not sure it's useful in discerning WHICH games to tease amongst those home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5.
Again -- I want to point out that what we are doing here is somewhat on the cutting edge, since very little has been written or published publically on teasers. We have a lot of talented people here, so if someone wants to run some numbers, I'm sure everyone would be grateful.
In the meantime, I'm going to continue looking at various number combinations.
I do what to point out one error in my write up yesterday. I blindly copied the winning percentage of this angle from a chart which said it was an 82 percent play. The correct percentage (134-39) is actually a bit over 77 percent. So, that's a noteworthy correction. This actually means that the BEST TEASER play may be teasing home favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 DOWN to -2.5 or lower. That's almost an 80 percent play (130-33).
The point is -- there are at least four angles which make teasers potentially profitable.
I still have lots of work to do. I hope readers will understand that there is a "learning curve" inherent in this process of discovery.
-- Nolan Dallla
CORRECTION: I don't have quite all the data we need to address the point made by SLAMDUNK, but here's some significant info:
NFL 1985 - 2000
(NOTE: This does not include 2001 season)
HOME DOGS ATS: (wins-losses-ties)
EVEN -- 36 - 27 -- 0
+1 -- 43 - 36 - 0
+1.5 -- 38 - 22 - 0
+2 -- 38 - 33 - 4
+2.5 -- 58 - 48 - 0
+3 -- 97 - 84 - 19
All these numbers together and home dogs of +3 or less are a remarkable 55.3 percent ATS.
Of the key numbers for the teaser, 1.5 to 2.5, those teams have produced 56.5 percent winners.
This lends some valifity to the point made by SLMADUNK, that the teaser (+6) is not the sole reason you are winning the bet. However, the teaser's performance over and above this mark certainly makes the play even stronger. One could argue (with math) that PLAYING HOME TEAMS in the +1.5 to 2.5 range is wise, IN ADDITION TO tesing the team, as well.
One other interesting point is that home teams which are getting +8 to +11 (that is, 8, 9, 10, or 11 points) is the best bet of all (SIDE BETS). These home dogs have gone 71-45-2 ATS since 1985 (Note that this goes back 16 years -- I had to use a different database than the one used that only goes back to 1990). However, teasing these teams does not improve the chances of a win much. Although the data is rough, these big dogs (of +8.5 or more) only hit about 66 percent of the time. That's not strong enough to include them amongst the FOUR RECOMMNEDED SITUATIONAL TEASERS in the report.
-- Nolan Dalla
NFL 1985 - 2000
(NOTE: This does not include 2001 season)
HOME DOGS ATS: (wins-losses-ties)
EVEN -- 36 - 27 -- 0
+1 -- 43 - 36 - 0
+1.5 -- 38 - 22 - 0
+2 -- 38 - 33 - 4
+2.5 -- 58 - 48 - 0
+3 -- 97 - 84 - 19
All these numbers together and home dogs of +3 or less are a remarkable 55.3 percent ATS.
Of the key numbers for the teaser, 1.5 to 2.5, those teams have produced 56.5 percent winners.
This lends some valifity to the point made by SLMADUNK, that the teaser (+6) is not the sole reason you are winning the bet. However, the teaser's performance over and above this mark certainly makes the play even stronger. One could argue (with math) that PLAYING HOME TEAMS in the +1.5 to 2.5 range is wise, IN ADDITION TO tesing the team, as well.
One other interesting point is that home teams which are getting +8 to +11 (that is, 8, 9, 10, or 11 points) is the best bet of all (SIDE BETS). These home dogs have gone 71-45-2 ATS since 1985 (Note that this goes back 16 years -- I had to use a different database than the one used that only goes back to 1990). However, teasing these teams does not improve the chances of a win much. Although the data is rough, these big dogs (of +8.5 or more) only hit about 66 percent of the time. That's not strong enough to include them amongst the FOUR RECOMMNEDED SITUATIONAL TEASERS in the report.
-- Nolan Dalla
No question that Nolan's analysis makes teasers from 1.5-2.5 to 7.5-8.5 look good. Here is my problem with it.
We are talking about an average of one play per week here. Even if home dogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points are teased indiscriminantly, those numbers say it will be rare that one will see very many weeks with even two teams that fit into that catagory.
This week we have Seattle and Carolina. Maybe everyone on the board should tease the two of them together and see if we can make some loot. In fact, I may actually try it just for fun (I will be at the Seattle game, too, so that will give me action, baybee). But the fact is that clearly a scenario where two teams or more in any one week are 1.5 to 2.5 point home dogs is unlikely at best. That lends itself to my second complaint about teasers (aside from the added mathematical house edge), that teasers cannot be played as single bets and therefore the house edge increases qualitatively.
The bottom line remains that teasers are offered because they bring money into the house at a higher rate than standard -110 side and total bets. Period, bottom line, end of story. If you want to spend your time trying to beat an even greater house advantage, <i>se la vive</i>. I can't stop you.
The reason so many pro gamblers focus on baseball is because the house edge is small, so more money can be won that way. The reason so many football players lose their wads is because the house edge is larger in the NFL. Don't make the house edge any larger than it already is. Keep your focus on moneylines, sides and totals.
We are talking about an average of one play per week here. Even if home dogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points are teased indiscriminantly, those numbers say it will be rare that one will see very many weeks with even two teams that fit into that catagory.
This week we have Seattle and Carolina. Maybe everyone on the board should tease the two of them together and see if we can make some loot. In fact, I may actually try it just for fun (I will be at the Seattle game, too, so that will give me action, baybee). But the fact is that clearly a scenario where two teams or more in any one week are 1.5 to 2.5 point home dogs is unlikely at best. That lends itself to my second complaint about teasers (aside from the added mathematical house edge), that teasers cannot be played as single bets and therefore the house edge increases qualitatively.
The bottom line remains that teasers are offered because they bring money into the house at a higher rate than standard -110 side and total bets. Period, bottom line, end of story. If you want to spend your time trying to beat an even greater house advantage, <i>se la vive</i>. I can't stop you.
The reason so many pro gamblers focus on baseball is because the house edge is small, so more money can be won that way. The reason so many football players lose their wads is because the house edge is larger in the NFL. Don't make the house edge any larger than it already is. Keep your focus on moneylines, sides and totals.
Just one short thought and correction about Nick's post (see above):
There are not only two plays that potentially provide TEASER +EV this week, but perhaps as many as 7. Since any angle that is above the 70.7 break even point for teasers applies, we average not just one or two plays as Nick states, but quite a few more.
THIS WEEK, ALL OF THESE PLAYS ALLOW YOU TO PICK UP THE 3, 4, 6, and 7.....
NY Giants -7.5 teased down to -1.5
Seattle +2.5 teased up to +8.5
San Diego -7.5 teased down to -1.5
Denver -7.5 teased down to -1.5
Carolina +2.5 teased up to +8.5
San Francisco +2.5 teased up to +8.5
Baltimore -7.5 teased down to -1.5
I want to add that whatever happens with these seven potential plays this week proves nothing. It's just too low of a sampling to have any statstical significance. Furthermore, I have CLEARLY stated that you should handicap these games on top of doing qualitative analysis. For instance I think teasing SEATTLE and/or BALTIMORE this week would be foolish given their quarterbacking problems. So, I do not want anyone to be misled and start playing all of these plays without any additional measures.
-- Nolan Dalla
There are not only two plays that potentially provide TEASER +EV this week, but perhaps as many as 7. Since any angle that is above the 70.7 break even point for teasers applies, we average not just one or two plays as Nick states, but quite a few more.
THIS WEEK, ALL OF THESE PLAYS ALLOW YOU TO PICK UP THE 3, 4, 6, and 7.....
NY Giants -7.5 teased down to -1.5
Seattle +2.5 teased up to +8.5
San Diego -7.5 teased down to -1.5
Denver -7.5 teased down to -1.5
Carolina +2.5 teased up to +8.5
San Francisco +2.5 teased up to +8.5
Baltimore -7.5 teased down to -1.5
I want to add that whatever happens with these seven potential plays this week proves nothing. It's just too low of a sampling to have any statstical significance. Furthermore, I have CLEARLY stated that you should handicap these games on top of doing qualitative analysis. For instance I think teasing SEATTLE and/or BALTIMORE this week would be foolish given their quarterbacking problems. So, I do not want anyone to be misled and start playing all of these plays without any additional measures.
-- Nolan Dalla
okay I went through it by hand and here is what I found......keep in mind that there is no "official" Las Vegas line and what is listed in my data base @ + 1.5 could be +1 in somebody elses likewise a +2.5 could be somebody elses +3.....but I show home dogs +1.5 to +2.5 from 1990 up to this week at 90/74 .548
[This message has been edited by Statman02 (edited 10-25-2001).]
[This message has been edited by Statman02 (edited 10-25-2001).]
by the way I bought the book Sharp Sports Betting and was using this angle during the pre season.......it worked great for three weeks but the last week had a lot of plays that qualified.......sooooooo of course I had to play them all......needless to say I got killed on that little trick.....I think it went about 1/4.....like Nolan says you better add some handicapping with it
So based on Statman's stats, the group that went 77.4% when teased hit 54.8% ATS(slightly lower than the figure for the larger sample mentioned by Nolan). Taking that at face value, the tease aspect is worth 22.6%, which means what?. Well what if the next group of +1.5 to +2.5 dogs hit only 50% blindly, which seems reasonable, then blindly playing them would yield individual results of ballpark 72.6% or net teaser results of .726 *.726 or 52.7% slightly above the 52.38% break even point. My conclusion is as follows based on this one sample set(looking at the other sample sets will obviously shed much more light)
1) that crossing the 3,4,6,7 makes teasers certainly advantageous enough to overcome the negative expectation of your typical teaser and in fact seems to overcome the edge enough to make what would ordinarily be 2 negative expectation plays(50% games), into a tiny positive expectation teaser.
2) To take the above a step further, what if the player is able to hit just the break-even rate of 52.38 % on his plays. Adding the 22.6% gives each tease a hit rate .7498 per game or a 56.2 % hit rate on a two team teaser. Thus turning break even handipapping into a pretty decent return.
3). Combined with solid handicapping and avoiding sporadic teams(teams that seem capable of being blown out or losing straight up in the case of chalks when they play poorly) this should prove a very good strategy of making money in the NFL. However, I certainly would not advise playing these situations blindly.
The bottom line is it seems(I would have to look at the other sample sets to make a more definitive conclusion) that every player from the seaoned pro to the pure Square can use this strategy to improve their bottom line.
1) that crossing the 3,4,6,7 makes teasers certainly advantageous enough to overcome the negative expectation of your typical teaser and in fact seems to overcome the edge enough to make what would ordinarily be 2 negative expectation plays(50% games), into a tiny positive expectation teaser.
2) To take the above a step further, what if the player is able to hit just the break-even rate of 52.38 % on his plays. Adding the 22.6% gives each tease a hit rate .7498 per game or a 56.2 % hit rate on a two team teaser. Thus turning break even handipapping into a pretty decent return.
3). Combined with solid handicapping and avoiding sporadic teams(teams that seem capable of being blown out or losing straight up in the case of chalks when they play poorly) this should prove a very good strategy of making money in the NFL. However, I certainly would not advise playing these situations blindly.
The bottom line is it seems(I would have to look at the other sample sets to make a more definitive conclusion) that every player from the seaoned pro to the pure Square can use this strategy to improve their bottom line.
I've read and re-read both NICK's column and NOLAN's, and I can only conclude one thing. BOTH make valid points, but NICK does NOT seem to give enough emphasis to the KEY numbers that NOLAN is mentioning. In pure mathematical terms, teasers may NOT be a wise investment if bet randomly. BUT, in certain circumstances, and when placed methodically to take advantage of key numbers, I feel Nolan is right that there are times when they are to be played.
Myself, I often play teasers from SUN to MNF, teasing the HOME TEAM down early, knowing that JOE PUBLIC will more times than not, be on a HOME FAV on MNF. I also tease the total, normally OVER, knowing the PUB's tendency to follow that same theory, HOME FAV and OVER. IF my original play hits, I'm set up with a nice middle situation where I can take back the dog, normally at a 7 to 8 pt middle, or the UNDER at the same middle spread. IF I feel my play is "safe" or the right side, I may sit on it til HT, but I have many options at this point. This to me is the ideal situation, as I will quite often tease as many as six games to MNF, 3 to the side and total perhaps, and hope to have a minimum of four alive going in. At $100 a play, I'll have 660 invested at this point, and in most cases, I'll have FOUR live teasers, at significantly FAVORABLE numbers going into MON game. I can then play the OPPOSITE for one unit if I so desire, and have a possible outcome of -2.6 Units if all teasers lose, to a possible gain of +3.8 Units if all hit. ALL six games I play on SUN to MNF are games I already considered plays, and my hope if that I "buy" a win or two by using the additional six points. To really complicate things, you can always TEASE the MNF game to the next week's games on THUR or SUN. This gives you a 13 to 14 pt middle situation in most cases, which I feel is significant in the NFL.
Myself, I often play teasers from SUN to MNF, teasing the HOME TEAM down early, knowing that JOE PUBLIC will more times than not, be on a HOME FAV on MNF. I also tease the total, normally OVER, knowing the PUB's tendency to follow that same theory, HOME FAV and OVER. IF my original play hits, I'm set up with a nice middle situation where I can take back the dog, normally at a 7 to 8 pt middle, or the UNDER at the same middle spread. IF I feel my play is "safe" or the right side, I may sit on it til HT, but I have many options at this point. This to me is the ideal situation, as I will quite often tease as many as six games to MNF, 3 to the side and total perhaps, and hope to have a minimum of four alive going in. At $100 a play, I'll have 660 invested at this point, and in most cases, I'll have FOUR live teasers, at significantly FAVORABLE numbers going into MON game. I can then play the OPPOSITE for one unit if I so desire, and have a possible outcome of -2.6 Units if all teasers lose, to a possible gain of +3.8 Units if all hit. ALL six games I play on SUN to MNF are games I already considered plays, and my hope if that I "buy" a win or two by using the additional six points. To really complicate things, you can always TEASE the MNF game to the next week's games on THUR or SUN. This gives you a 13 to 14 pt middle situation in most cases, which I feel is significant in the NFL.
To repsond to something Nick said: "That lends itself to my second complaint about teasers (aside from the added mathematical house edge)"
There is no "added mathematical house edge" on teasers. There are no "true odds" in sports wagering, and teasers and other parlays do not give the house any inherent mathematical edge. (I do not say "added" mathematical edge because straight plays at 10:11 odds do not give the house any inherent edge to begin with.) If you researched it, you would presumably find that playing every possible teaser combo indiscriminately would be a disastrously bad losing proposition at the prevailing odds. But that's beside the point, because the player doesn't have to play every teaser combo. The player can pick and choose, and whether he identifies a general category of profitable teaser selections (as Nolan says he has) or simply finds individual plays that for whatever reason appear to have a win-probability of more than the square root of .5238 (on a two-team 6-point teaser), there is no theoretical or mathematical reason why a player cannot find an edge and turn a profit.
[This message has been edited by mw (edited 10-27-2001).]
There is no "added mathematical house edge" on teasers. There are no "true odds" in sports wagering, and teasers and other parlays do not give the house any inherent mathematical edge. (I do not say "added" mathematical edge because straight plays at 10:11 odds do not give the house any inherent edge to begin with.) If you researched it, you would presumably find that playing every possible teaser combo indiscriminately would be a disastrously bad losing proposition at the prevailing odds. But that's beside the point, because the player doesn't have to play every teaser combo. The player can pick and choose, and whether he identifies a general category of profitable teaser selections (as Nolan says he has) or simply finds individual plays that for whatever reason appear to have a win-probability of more than the square root of .5238 (on a two-team 6-point teaser), there is no theoretical or mathematical reason why a player cannot find an edge and turn a profit.
[This message has been edited by mw (edited 10-27-2001).]
The best thing out of all this is. We have some sharp minds looing for that extra 2/3 maybe 4% that can go our way. Every little bit that can help is a bonus.
For years I followed a rule any Div underdog at home getting 3 or less was to be looked at hard for a play. They did run at about 53 to 54% for some time. Now I have not followed it for some time real close. But it would be nice if someone has the program to check just this angle with a 6 point tez add to D home dog 3 or less. Could be another sleeper.
For years I followed a rule any Div underdog at home getting 3 or less was to be looked at hard for a play. They did run at about 53 to 54% for some time. Now I have not followed it for some time real close. But it would be nice if someone has the program to check just this angle with a 6 point tez add to D home dog 3 or less. Could be another sleeper.
