Nordic Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Brian Davis to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
Disappointed as a selection last week, but still retained at higher odds and against a much weaker field. As argued last week, he has had six top-10 finishes since the Tour came to Europe, including 6th at the British Open last month. Very few in this week's field can compete with this form. Thomas Bjorn obviously can, but the media pressure must be intense with this being the first European Tour event to be staged in Denmark.

Alastair Forsyth to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and Paddy Power
Large price for someone so in-form when they last played. Forsyth did finish down in 59th place at the British Open, but he had been 4th until he had a torrid time on the Saturday. He had also been 2nd twice and had one further top-10 finish in his four events before Royal St. George's so his 36-hole form was no surprise. This is his first outing since and if he can play as well as he did in June/July, then he will be a very serious contender for the title.

David Lynn to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet
The leader after 36 and 54 holes in the Irish Open two weeks ago, Lynn faltered in the last round and finished 4th. It was a virtual repeat of his performance in Dubai Desert Classic in March when he also led after 36 and 54 holes and eventually finished 3rd. Obviously not a proven winner, hence the place-only play, but he does get into contention on a frequent basis and on a variety of types of course. Also, his only Tour win was in the 1997 Danish Open when it was a Challenge Tour event, so this could be another strong performance from the Englishman, albeit for only 54 holes!

 

[milpalm]

There's a description of the course here (in Danish) .

http://www.berlingske.dk/sport/

Looks like this could become a putting contest as there's not much wind predicted. Lynn must have a decent chance. Got 50/1 with Sportingbet. Soren Hansen might be worth a look as this is his home course.

 

[Stanley]

The official golf club site has only limited information - http://english.simonsgolf.alletidersweb.dk - but a better one would be http://www.nordic-open.dk/composite-260.htm

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

John Bickerton to beat Sven Struver -105 @ BetandWin
Struver may have found some form of late with finishes of 6th in the Irish Open and 16th in the Scandinavian Masters, finishing ahead of Bickerton both times, and he even finished ahead of him by a shot in their previous event, the Scottish Open, but those the only times in the last year (17 common events) that Bickerton has not beaten Struver. Taking the better player who also finished 18th in a Challenge Tour event on this course in 1994.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Sven Struver -139 @ Easybets and William Hill
Struver also finished ahead of Kjeldsen in the Scottish Open (by 2 shots), but that is the only time he has done so in the last three months. In that time, Kjeldsen has won the Diageo Championship and will receive strong local support this week. Like Bickerton, he also has course experience from his Challenge Tour days.

David Lynn to beat Nick Dougherty -115 @ WWTS
A good performance from Dougherty last week following his diagnosis and thus treatment for glandular fever. It broke a long spell of poor golf for obvious reasons, but "Little Nick" has a long way to go to be a consistent player and shouldn't beat the outright selection who won the 1997 Danish Open on this course.

Stephen Gallacher to beat Marcus Havret -149 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Large difference in form between these two. Gallacher may no longer be making top-10s (he made three in a row in June), but his missed cut last week was his first in eight starts. Havret has missed three of his last five with a best finish of 50th. Gallacher also played in the 1997 Danish Open on this course and finished 8th behind Lynn to justify the price.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Ian Poulter(28/1 & 25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Poulter's misfire at Royal St. George's seems easy to forgive, as going in it seemed like the wrong place and the wrong time for anything other than a disappointment. Otherwise, his game and his confidence have been running at full tilt, and I've been somewhat close to the mark with my speculation on his fluctuating chances in recent weeks. The more snipets of info I glean about Simon's GC, the more it appears that good attacking golf under favorable weather conditions is the style of play that will be rewarded this week. In his final run up to a rare sortie in America, I like Ian's chances of being keenly interested in his golf and showing good form on a course that suits in a fascinating corner of the world.

Brian Davis(24/1) for 0.50* e.w @ 5 dimes
There is clearly some unfinished business left in his season. Coming off a disappointing performance (by his recent standards) in which he was paired the first two days with eventual winner Adam Scott, I view this as a fairly attractive spot for Davis' sparkling season to continue.

PARLAY Poulter(25/1) w/ Garcia(22/1) for 0.20* e.w. @ Bet365
Going Huge.

Next up for tournament outrights . . . With limited course knowledge, I'll see if sitting tight for now and waiting for something to develop isn't the better policy.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

In-running @ Bet365:

John Bickerton(28/1) for 0.40* e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Friday:

A tad late in posting again:

Bickerton(-115) over Donaldson for 1* @ 5 dimes
Poulter(+150) over Coltart/A. Hansen for 1* @ Bet365
Jiminez(-138) over Remesey/Stenson for 1* @ Bet365
Dier(+175) over O'Malley/McKenzie for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Bickerton/Struver Leads by 4
Kjeldsen/Struver Leads by 1
Lynn/Dougherty Leads by 8
Gallacher/Havret Trails by 5

Davis 5th
Forsyth mc
Lynn 2nd

Very nice position at the cut with two strong challengers for the title and in the only matchup that is the trailing the opponent is an inexperienced tournament leader. The leaderboard is very packed, so plenty will happen over the next 36 holes.

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday:

Dier(-110) over Lomas for 1* @ 5 dimes

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Soren Hansen a surprise? It's his friggin home course and he's been practicing to be a national hero. What a cheater!!! (Hansen: ?I felt confident. It?s my home course and I know every bump and bounce. I played great golf today and made a lot of putts. I knew the lines before I even got to the putts and I was just walking around the greens for show, really!?) And Bjorn will be an inspiration and his biggest fan all day.

Monty (on a course that rewards good attacking play) and Soren were partners and spent spent the first two rounds getting comfortable and acquainted.

Poulter is playing the best golf of his life, but he's drawn tough duty this Sunday - so have Jimenez and Davis.

On all tours this week, I believe I've had the outcome change on the final hole in 5 of 13 matchups (plus another matchup in which both players birdied the last). I can't recall a week close to it.

SUNDAY MATCHUPS for 1* each @ 5 dimes:

S. Hansen(-138) over St. Webster
Montgomerie(-138) Davis
Coltart(-105) over Hedblom
Poulter(-122) over Jimenez

And parlay all four for 1* @ 9.57/1

GL

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +2.27 units

Bickerton/Struver WON by 6
Kjeldsen/Struver WON by 7
Lynn/Dougherty WON by 7
Gallacher/Havret TIED (Lost)

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Davis 6th
Lynn 43rd

Disappointing return from a very promising event. Davis had held the lead at one stage during the final round, but failed to hole anything on the back nine and dropped out of the place positions. Lynn's final round fade occurred 9 holes earlier than usual, while it was a frustrating loss on the Gallacher matchup. He finished 3rd and I expected Havret to miss the cut rather than finish on the same mark - ties lose at Sportingbet which sums up this event.

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 41-39; -7.55 units
18-holes: 48-41; +13.54
Outrights: 7-49; -38.55 units