I'd like to see what folks around here think of this game - after all, we are forced watch it. I'm willing to share, so here is what I think -
North Texas 27, New Mexico State 20
NT has played several teams similar to NMSU this year. As a matter of fact, all of their last 4 opponents (Utah St, MTSU, Troy St and Arkansas St) have been quite similar defensively to NMSU. Three of the four are conference opponents; and while MTSU is somewhat weaker pass defense-wise, the NT?s passing yardage in the game reflects that appropriately. The QB and main RB positions seem to have been settled since week 5. With this much stability, it seems reasonable to predict NT passing to produce results like 10 of 15 for 120 yards, a couple of TDs and an INT. Similarly, a prediction of NT rushing might be 47 carries for roughly 225 yards. Based on these types of performances, I would look for NT to score in the 24-31 range.
NMSU seems to be playing better since they went to Buck Pierce on a consistent basis. Pierce is a better match-up against the NT defense, which would be better prepared to contain Dombrowski than NMSU?s other conference opponents have been. NMSU is probably still going to run the ball around 40 times for maybe 125 yards, while I guess Pierce?s numbers to be around 20-28 for about 250, a couple of TDs and no picks. My wild guess here would be 17-24 points.
The game situation is that NT has already clinched the Sun Belt title, so they could let up a bit, try to get all the seniors in, try some other things, etc. On the other hand, Coach Dickey did not do that last year in a similar situation against Cincinnati and bowl selections have not (officially) been made yet. Lastly, and I think, most importantly, NT has the chance to finish 7-0 in conference play. NMSU is definitely playing better lately, having played three good quarters at Arkansas (1, 2 and 4) and not blown the lead against Utah State. I don?t think either of these things would have happened earlier in the year, especially when they were playing Dombrowski half the time.
There are no new significant injuries, though I do empathize with JayMay.
NT is batting .500 on the road, but the 3 losses were to Oklahoma, Arkansas and Air Force. The road wins were nothing particularly to brag about (Idaho, UL Monroe and MTSU). NMSU is sub par everywhere they play, though no worse at home than on the road. I cannot find any significant home field advantage in this game.
All told, since I cannot find any reason for any net adjustments, my little analysis ends up North Texas (24, 31) to NMSU (17, 24). If I had to refine things further, I would put NMSU toward the higher end and NT toward the lower end with a confidence of about 25% (two coin tosses). I make the spread to be about 7 in this game. Pinnacle has it at 8?. Who am I to argue? I can't see either team as being clearly more likely to cover based on this spread (I would never claim to be able to hit within 1.5 points of the final spread, would you?). NO BET.
North Texas 27, New Mexico State 20
NT has played several teams similar to NMSU this year. As a matter of fact, all of their last 4 opponents (Utah St, MTSU, Troy St and Arkansas St) have been quite similar defensively to NMSU. Three of the four are conference opponents; and while MTSU is somewhat weaker pass defense-wise, the NT?s passing yardage in the game reflects that appropriately. The QB and main RB positions seem to have been settled since week 5. With this much stability, it seems reasonable to predict NT passing to produce results like 10 of 15 for 120 yards, a couple of TDs and an INT. Similarly, a prediction of NT rushing might be 47 carries for roughly 225 yards. Based on these types of performances, I would look for NT to score in the 24-31 range.
NMSU seems to be playing better since they went to Buck Pierce on a consistent basis. Pierce is a better match-up against the NT defense, which would be better prepared to contain Dombrowski than NMSU?s other conference opponents have been. NMSU is probably still going to run the ball around 40 times for maybe 125 yards, while I guess Pierce?s numbers to be around 20-28 for about 250, a couple of TDs and no picks. My wild guess here would be 17-24 points.
The game situation is that NT has already clinched the Sun Belt title, so they could let up a bit, try to get all the seniors in, try some other things, etc. On the other hand, Coach Dickey did not do that last year in a similar situation against Cincinnati and bowl selections have not (officially) been made yet. Lastly, and I think, most importantly, NT has the chance to finish 7-0 in conference play. NMSU is definitely playing better lately, having played three good quarters at Arkansas (1, 2 and 4) and not blown the lead against Utah State. I don?t think either of these things would have happened earlier in the year, especially when they were playing Dombrowski half the time.
There are no new significant injuries, though I do empathize with JayMay.
NT is batting .500 on the road, but the 3 losses were to Oklahoma, Arkansas and Air Force. The road wins were nothing particularly to brag about (Idaho, UL Monroe and MTSU). NMSU is sub par everywhere they play, though no worse at home than on the road. I cannot find any significant home field advantage in this game.
All told, since I cannot find any reason for any net adjustments, my little analysis ends up North Texas (24, 31) to NMSU (17, 24). If I had to refine things further, I would put NMSU toward the higher end and NT toward the lower end with a confidence of about 25% (two coin tosses). I make the spread to be about 7 in this game. Pinnacle has it at 8?. Who am I to argue? I can't see either team as being clearly more likely to cover based on this spread (I would never claim to be able to hit within 1.5 points of the final spread, would you?). NO BET.
