Doesn't look like this side is all that popular amongst the respected MadJack crowd tonight, but I'm stepping back in with this play to hopefully start the bowl season off on the right track.
Several tangible, as well as, intangible factors that I weigh heavily during bowl season, point to North Texas covering the number and likely winning SU tonight.
UNT has clearly established themselves as the dominant Sun Belt football team. While dominant and Sun Belt football may seem like an oxymoron to most, there is no discrediting the job that Coach Darrell Dickey has done with this program over the last few seasons. After failing to win a game in their first 4 games this season, the Mean Green have reeled off 7 straight games. They also are the holders of an impressive 25 game winning streak against conference foes, dating back to several seasons ago.
Sure, a case can be made that the Sun Belt is a bottom tier conference in football and I'm not going to argue much. That being said, those W-L records do indicate a team that knows how to win, and clearly one that carries utmost confidence going into each and every contest. Attitude and motivation cannot be understated during the bowls! In fact, it is my #1 factor to look at before even looking at the physical matchups. They don't play these games on paper and teams that are aren't happy to be in their respective bowl game WILL NOT perform to their potential, no matter how large the athletic mismatch!
One cannot forget that at the start of each season, North Texas' GOAL is to win the Sun Belt and go to the New Orleans Bowl. That is their motivation, their measure of success, whatever you want to call it. Regardless of how outsiders may view it, they are always extremely happy to be in this game. The fact that they are getting used to making this annual bowl trip should be looked upon as a mark of consistent success, rather than "just another New Orleans Bowl." Much of the same offensive core from last year's New Orleans Bowl are returning to make better on their disappointing visit last year. If UNT can keep making this bowl, I really feel that the comfort and confidence level is going to lead to more victories for them as they will continually be out to prove something to a run of the mill C-USA team that by the very nature of the bowl selection process should be coming in off a disappointing season.
That is certainly how I would classify the Golden Eagles this year...a disappointment. I still believe that they are living off their past reputation and there is good reason that they are only a short fave here. This team started 4-0 and just fell apart down the stretch. Historically, the Southern Miss football program has been as solid a mid-major as they come. However, the last few seasons have found them stumbling a bit. This season, IMO, they have only made even more steps backward. The thing that had earned the Golden Eagles such a solid reputation over the years was mainly their defense and ability to protect their home turf in Hattiesburg. They did neither very well this year. The eye-raising spanking the Cincy Bearcats put on them in Hattiesburg this year, speaks volumes about how mediocre this squad is on defense. 52 points allowed? In Hattiesburg? Clearly, not something this proud program has become used to over the years!
Offensively, the Golden Eagles are no great shakes, either. QB Almond has fought through some injuries and has put up decent numbers at times, but he is far from the type of QB that will torch this UNT secondary, or ANY secondary for that matter. The coaches have really been down on their running game of late, too. Lack of a quality back to step up and make plays combined with less than stellar offensive line play. Granted, the running game could get a little better tonight against an undersized Mean Green DL, but the bottomline is that this is not a good rusing attack, averaging under 150 yards/game. Overall, this USM offense isn't going to scare anybody.
While the Mean Green do hold some defensive liabilities and obviously don't have a great history when stepping up in class, I am just not convinced that this Southern Miss team is much of a step up. Afterall, the Mean Green D did make minimal strides as the season wore on.
I especially love the fact that UNT is the much better rushing team, averaging almost 200 yards/game. The "rushing dog" handicapping angle has historically made bettors very happy during the bowl season and for good reason. I expect it to contribute another winner tonight.
Even beyond UNT's rushing dominance, senior QB Scott Hall is serviceable and plays within himself. He is not going to wow you, but he can make throws when needed and is accurate. I expect UNT to have some success with the play-action tonight after they let Jamario loose for awhile. While some might cite lack of quality defenses faced by "Super Jamario" and Co., I foresee the Mean Green's rushing attack being undeterred by a Golden Eagle defense that has yet to really prove itself as a quality stop unit.
Even though, all indications from Coach Bower are that USM is focused and ready to win tonight, I just think it's coach speak. The very fact that he has stated that at times their collective team motivation hasn't been there in some games this year is reason enough to expect another lethargic effort from them tonight. And that type of effort will for sure get them beat tonight. In my eyes, they HAVE to be disappointed and unmotivated here. After all, this is a team that expects to be in the Liberty Bowl every year, representing C-USA as the conference champ. How can playing in the New Orleans Bowl against the North Texas Mean Green really motivate this squad tonight? I could be totally wrong here, but I just don't see it!
Give me the hotter team, with the better rushing attack, likely playing with a chip on their shoulder over the mediocre, and likely disinterested favorite any day of the week.
BTW, along with 3 units on North Texas +5 for the game, and 1.2 units on ML @ +190, I am also playing Mean Green +1/2 -125 to win 1.2 units in the 1st quarter, as I expect them to pounce on the Golden Eagles right out of the gates. USM might wake up eventually and mount a comeback, but expect those North Texas boys to hold on for the victory tonight!
Good Luck to All,
-JC
Several tangible, as well as, intangible factors that I weigh heavily during bowl season, point to North Texas covering the number and likely winning SU tonight.
UNT has clearly established themselves as the dominant Sun Belt football team. While dominant and Sun Belt football may seem like an oxymoron to most, there is no discrediting the job that Coach Darrell Dickey has done with this program over the last few seasons. After failing to win a game in their first 4 games this season, the Mean Green have reeled off 7 straight games. They also are the holders of an impressive 25 game winning streak against conference foes, dating back to several seasons ago.
Sure, a case can be made that the Sun Belt is a bottom tier conference in football and I'm not going to argue much. That being said, those W-L records do indicate a team that knows how to win, and clearly one that carries utmost confidence going into each and every contest. Attitude and motivation cannot be understated during the bowls! In fact, it is my #1 factor to look at before even looking at the physical matchups. They don't play these games on paper and teams that are aren't happy to be in their respective bowl game WILL NOT perform to their potential, no matter how large the athletic mismatch!
One cannot forget that at the start of each season, North Texas' GOAL is to win the Sun Belt and go to the New Orleans Bowl. That is their motivation, their measure of success, whatever you want to call it. Regardless of how outsiders may view it, they are always extremely happy to be in this game. The fact that they are getting used to making this annual bowl trip should be looked upon as a mark of consistent success, rather than "just another New Orleans Bowl." Much of the same offensive core from last year's New Orleans Bowl are returning to make better on their disappointing visit last year. If UNT can keep making this bowl, I really feel that the comfort and confidence level is going to lead to more victories for them as they will continually be out to prove something to a run of the mill C-USA team that by the very nature of the bowl selection process should be coming in off a disappointing season.
That is certainly how I would classify the Golden Eagles this year...a disappointment. I still believe that they are living off their past reputation and there is good reason that they are only a short fave here. This team started 4-0 and just fell apart down the stretch. Historically, the Southern Miss football program has been as solid a mid-major as they come. However, the last few seasons have found them stumbling a bit. This season, IMO, they have only made even more steps backward. The thing that had earned the Golden Eagles such a solid reputation over the years was mainly their defense and ability to protect their home turf in Hattiesburg. They did neither very well this year. The eye-raising spanking the Cincy Bearcats put on them in Hattiesburg this year, speaks volumes about how mediocre this squad is on defense. 52 points allowed? In Hattiesburg? Clearly, not something this proud program has become used to over the years!
Offensively, the Golden Eagles are no great shakes, either. QB Almond has fought through some injuries and has put up decent numbers at times, but he is far from the type of QB that will torch this UNT secondary, or ANY secondary for that matter. The coaches have really been down on their running game of late, too. Lack of a quality back to step up and make plays combined with less than stellar offensive line play. Granted, the running game could get a little better tonight against an undersized Mean Green DL, but the bottomline is that this is not a good rusing attack, averaging under 150 yards/game. Overall, this USM offense isn't going to scare anybody.
While the Mean Green do hold some defensive liabilities and obviously don't have a great history when stepping up in class, I am just not convinced that this Southern Miss team is much of a step up. Afterall, the Mean Green D did make minimal strides as the season wore on.
I especially love the fact that UNT is the much better rushing team, averaging almost 200 yards/game. The "rushing dog" handicapping angle has historically made bettors very happy during the bowl season and for good reason. I expect it to contribute another winner tonight.
Even beyond UNT's rushing dominance, senior QB Scott Hall is serviceable and plays within himself. He is not going to wow you, but he can make throws when needed and is accurate. I expect UNT to have some success with the play-action tonight after they let Jamario loose for awhile. While some might cite lack of quality defenses faced by "Super Jamario" and Co., I foresee the Mean Green's rushing attack being undeterred by a Golden Eagle defense that has yet to really prove itself as a quality stop unit.
Even though, all indications from Coach Bower are that USM is focused and ready to win tonight, I just think it's coach speak. The very fact that he has stated that at times their collective team motivation hasn't been there in some games this year is reason enough to expect another lethargic effort from them tonight. And that type of effort will for sure get them beat tonight. In my eyes, they HAVE to be disappointed and unmotivated here. After all, this is a team that expects to be in the Liberty Bowl every year, representing C-USA as the conference champ. How can playing in the New Orleans Bowl against the North Texas Mean Green really motivate this squad tonight? I could be totally wrong here, but I just don't see it!
Give me the hotter team, with the better rushing attack, likely playing with a chip on their shoulder over the mediocre, and likely disinterested favorite any day of the week.
BTW, along with 3 units on North Texas +5 for the game, and 1.2 units on ML @ +190, I am also playing Mean Green +1/2 -125 to win 1.2 units in the 1st quarter, as I expect them to pounce on the Golden Eagles right out of the gates. USM might wake up eventually and mount a comeback, but expect those North Texas boys to hold on for the victory tonight!
Good Luck to All,
-JC
Thanks for posting and GL tonight. Looking forward to much more of your wisdom 