NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* GREEN BAY over Detroit - The favorite in this series is 14-8-1 ATS the L/23 meetings & the Lions are 1-9-1 ATS in Green Bay losing by an avg margin of 31-16. Green Bay is 25-2 SU & 18-9 ATS at home after a SU loss. Brett Favre is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS vs Lions HC Steve Mariucci beating him by an avg of 26-17 when he had a more talented team with the 49ers. The Packers were absolutely awful in the 1H of LW?s game vs MIN. The Packers were outFD?d 12-7 & outgained 202-95. Favre went into the lockerroom with 66 yds passing (56%) & an 0-3 ratio in the Pack?s 30-25 loss to the Vikings at Lambeau. Detroit was mauled statistically LW (outFD?d 21-16 & outgained 439-261) and had a PR & int return for a TD to mask their deficiencies. Now they go from playing possibly the weakest team in the NFL to facing an angry playoff caliber team. The last time Mariucci brought a team into Lambeau we used the Packers as a 4?* Playoff Play of the Year. Will we use them again this week for the NFL GOM? FORECAST: GREEN BAY 33 Detroit 16
3* Seattle over ARIZONA - The SU winner of this series is 6-0 ATS and the visitor won and covered both games LY. The Cardinals are 2-16 ATS as September HD?s. The Cardinals raised quite a few eyebrows when they rushed for 249 yds (7.1 ypc) in the first game between the teams in their victory. However, the Seahawks outpassed the Cardinals LY 600-324. The Seahawks are without CB Shawn Springs but still have an impressive secondary while the Cardinals have one of the weakest WR units in the NFL. Matt Hasselbeck continued where he left off LY in slicing & dicing the Saints . The Cardinals hung tough with the Lions LW outgaining them 439-261 & earning a 21-16 FD edge but still allowed Joey Harrington 3 TD passes & now face a team with an experienced QB & a far better defense. Twice LY we went against the Cardinals in NFL Games of the Month winning both times. Will we go for the trifecta here? FORECAST: Seattle 30 ARIZONA 13
2* ST LOUIS over San Francisco - The favorite in this series is 14-2 since 1995 and the Rams are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS since 1999. Kurt Warner is 24-8 ATS when he starts in a dome. We also sided with the Rams over the 49ers for our 5* NFL Pro Play of the Year in 2001. LW Kurt Warner sustained a concussion in the 1Q & was held overnight for observation. Kurt Warner still aired it out vs the NYG defense throwing for 342 yds (63%) but the effect of the concussions showed as he was sacked 6 times & fmbl?d 6 times. 49ers QB Jeff Garcia only took 25 snaps in the preseason & didn?t look the least bit rusty as the 49ers manhandled the Bears. Garcia threw for 229 yds (54%) with a 2-1 ratio. Both teams are weak in the secondary due to injuries but STL plays the Cover-2 defense well & the 49ers are without a TE that can challenge it. LW?s results set this game up nicely as the 49ers are off a huge DD win & the Rams are off a tough DD loss. The Rams are not the Bad News Bears and will have more fight in this bitter division rivalry. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 31 San Francisco 14
2* KANSAS CITY over Pittsburgh - The last time these teams met was in 2001 when PIT won 20-17 as a 2 pt AD. This will be the first true challenge for the Steelers defense against a quality pass attack. Passing teams have been the bane of the Steelers franchise lately & KC has avg?d 363 yds offense & 31.6 ppg in their L/9 home games. Priest Holmes was rewarded with a contract extension LW & celebrated with 183 total yds showing no ill effects of his hip injury. Defenses that run the 3-4 tend to give up rushing yards & Pitt allowed 6 gms of 100+ yds LY but held Baltimore?s Jamal Lewis to just 69 yds LW. They will still be without Joey Porter & Kendrell Bell has not mastered the rush DE spot yet. The Chiefs had 12-4 FD & 281-49 yd edges and a 24-0 lead at the end of the 1H before cruising to a 27-14 win LW. The Steelers had a 12-5 FD edge & a 197-101 yd edge & led 13-0 at the end of the 1H. The Chiefs had the NFL?s best OL LY & they returned intact for this season. The Steelers did do well against our 25th ranked offense LW but now face our 2nd ranked offense. FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 31 Pittsburgh 17
NFL OTHER GAMES:
Miami 16 NY JETS 6 - The Jets are 17-6-1 ATS in this series (9-2-1 at home) vs the Dolphins. The SU winner in this series is 11-0-1 ATS the L/12 meetings. The Dolphins went 2-6 SU & ATS on the road LY. The last time Miami won in New York was in 1997 when they won 31-20 as a 3 pt dog. LW Curtis Martin only had 48 yds (3.2 ypc) vs a Redskins team that has a 5th round DC, a 7th rounder and a pair of UFA?s holding the middle together. He faces a stiffer test in with a far more talented Dolphins DL that has faster LB?s than the Redskins. The Jets do have an extra 3 days to gameplan here but in Testeverde?s L/3 starts he has only led the Jets to 23 points & put up 380 yds passing. The Jets are off LW?s emotional defeat where they lost on a FG by former K John Hall with :05 left. The Dolphins were shocked at home by the upstart Texans as they were looking ahead to this game. They now face their arch nemesis in a situation where the Fish are just 4-11 ATS on the road after a SU home loss. We are well aware of all the technical situations that favor the Jets but the Dolphins are the fundamentally superior team here & should improve their focus with a win especially with a division home game against Buffalo on deck.
BALTIMORE 35 Cleveland 31 - The visitor is 6-2 ATS in this series with the dog covering the L/4. LY the Browns went 7-1 ATS on the road. LY Holcomb stepped in for an inj?d QB Couch on Sunday night & put the Ravens back on their heels with a 98 & 76 yd TD drive. The Browns rec?d an onside kick & Holcomb (with a broken leg) took them down to the Ravens 17 before he was picked off with less than 1:00 left. The Browns defense was stout giving up just 270 total yards to the Colts LW and continuously harassed QB Manning. Kyle Boller who threw for 152 yds (51%) with a 1-1 ratio LW was inauspicious in his Raven debut as BAL was hammered by the Steelers. The Ravens front 3 DL are a bit small (6-2 285 avg) & inexperienced so Browns HC Davis, who prefers a power running game, could feature William Green who had 86 yds (4.1 ypc) LW to exploit an offensive opening here. Boller will benefit from a home crowd here & we still believe that Baltimore has a sound defense. This falls right around the number though we do believe that this will be a higher scoring game.
INDIANAPOLIS 27 Tennessee 17 - The Titans won & covered both games vs the Colts LY. The Colts outFD?d them (47-31) & outgained them as well (767-546) but 3 TO?s in the 1st meeting & 2 in the 2nd did them in. The Colts are a stunningly poor 6-20-1 ATS (9-18 O/U) as a Div HF (4-8-1 ATS since 1999) since 1989. They are also 8-20 ATS at home in September. The Colts were lucky to escape the dog pound with a win as Peyton Manning could only manage 211 yds through the air & Marvin Harrison had a very quiet 9 catches for 44 yds (4.9). Tennessee is off LW?s Sunday Night game vs Oakland & those results are unavailable. HC Jeff Fisher is 26-14 ATS as an AD in his tenure here & 8-3 SU & ATS (3-8 O/U) as a Div AD. We feel that Indianapolis is the best team in the AFC South & Manning will want to right the ship after LW?s lackluster offensive performance. The Titans are 2nd best team in the division but they will miss the playoffs partially due to a loss here.
ATLANTA 17 Washington 16 - Steve Spurrier gets to face a former disciple in Doug Johnson in this game. LW the Falcons lost their #2 WR Brian Finneran to a broken hand & will rely on 3rd yr & 7th RD DC WR Quentin McCord to step up. The Redskin defense did a good job containing the Jets LW with 17-11 FD and 327-158 yd edges. They also get another 3 days to gameplan for the Falcons here. Spurrier was only 1-5 LY off a SU win & the Redskins are only 1-4 the L/5Y in road openers. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS the last 16 hosting a non-division team & 2-10 ATS at home off a SU win. Doug Johnson struggled to move the ball early LW & had 85 yds passing (36%) in the 1H against the Cowboys. Atlanta was our System Play Winner LW & the 2nd half of the system is to play against them if they win the previous week.
Buffalo 23 JACKSONVILLE 16 - JAX is 12-4-1 ATS at home in September & 6-0-1 ATS the L/7Y in home openers. Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in their L/8 road openers. BUF returns to the hot & humid Florida climate next week vs division rival MIA. JAX has road games against IND & HOU up next. Jacksonville gave Carolina an unexpected challenge LW & had 10-1 FD and 165-36 yd edges at the end of the 1H. The Panthers came back for the SU win only after they put in Jake Delhomme. In the 2H JAX was outFD?d 16-7 & outgained 206-166 with 65 of the Jags yds coming on a quick strike TD pass. Buffalo had a 23-16 FD edge & outgained the Pats 319-239. We rated Buffalo as our 10th best defense entering the year & that was a key factor in our 3* Late Phone Winner on the Under in their game LW. SS Lawyer Milloy showed his worth to the Bills LW with 5 tkls & a sack. While Buffalo may not have as stout a defense as the Panthers they do have an offense with more weapons which gets the job done here.
NEW ORLEANS 23 Houston 17 - The Texans go from playing an unforgiving defense in a humid grass surface stadium to playing a high powered offense on turf in a domed stadium. The Saints are 4-10-2 the L/16 vs the AFC & 8-15-1 ATS at home the L/3Y. The Saints are 3-9-1 ATS at home off a SU road loss (0-2-1 LY). The Houston OL was outstanding holding the Dolphins sackless & allowing David Carr to scorch the much publicized Miami secondary for 266 yds. We do not want to overreact to the Texans win or the Saints loss LW. The Saints did outgain Seattle 359-270 & outFD?d them 20-17. This will pit the strength vs strength with the Saints offense facing the Texans defense which should keep the game low scoring.
4* GREEN BAY over Detroit - The favorite in this series is 14-8-1 ATS the L/23 meetings & the Lions are 1-9-1 ATS in Green Bay losing by an avg margin of 31-16. Green Bay is 25-2 SU & 18-9 ATS at home after a SU loss. Brett Favre is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS vs Lions HC Steve Mariucci beating him by an avg of 26-17 when he had a more talented team with the 49ers. The Packers were absolutely awful in the 1H of LW?s game vs MIN. The Packers were outFD?d 12-7 & outgained 202-95. Favre went into the lockerroom with 66 yds passing (56%) & an 0-3 ratio in the Pack?s 30-25 loss to the Vikings at Lambeau. Detroit was mauled statistically LW (outFD?d 21-16 & outgained 439-261) and had a PR & int return for a TD to mask their deficiencies. Now they go from playing possibly the weakest team in the NFL to facing an angry playoff caliber team. The last time Mariucci brought a team into Lambeau we used the Packers as a 4?* Playoff Play of the Year. Will we use them again this week for the NFL GOM? FORECAST: GREEN BAY 33 Detroit 16
3* Seattle over ARIZONA - The SU winner of this series is 6-0 ATS and the visitor won and covered both games LY. The Cardinals are 2-16 ATS as September HD?s. The Cardinals raised quite a few eyebrows when they rushed for 249 yds (7.1 ypc) in the first game between the teams in their victory. However, the Seahawks outpassed the Cardinals LY 600-324. The Seahawks are without CB Shawn Springs but still have an impressive secondary while the Cardinals have one of the weakest WR units in the NFL. Matt Hasselbeck continued where he left off LY in slicing & dicing the Saints . The Cardinals hung tough with the Lions LW outgaining them 439-261 & earning a 21-16 FD edge but still allowed Joey Harrington 3 TD passes & now face a team with an experienced QB & a far better defense. Twice LY we went against the Cardinals in NFL Games of the Month winning both times. Will we go for the trifecta here? FORECAST: Seattle 30 ARIZONA 13
2* ST LOUIS over San Francisco - The favorite in this series is 14-2 since 1995 and the Rams are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS since 1999. Kurt Warner is 24-8 ATS when he starts in a dome. We also sided with the Rams over the 49ers for our 5* NFL Pro Play of the Year in 2001. LW Kurt Warner sustained a concussion in the 1Q & was held overnight for observation. Kurt Warner still aired it out vs the NYG defense throwing for 342 yds (63%) but the effect of the concussions showed as he was sacked 6 times & fmbl?d 6 times. 49ers QB Jeff Garcia only took 25 snaps in the preseason & didn?t look the least bit rusty as the 49ers manhandled the Bears. Garcia threw for 229 yds (54%) with a 2-1 ratio. Both teams are weak in the secondary due to injuries but STL plays the Cover-2 defense well & the 49ers are without a TE that can challenge it. LW?s results set this game up nicely as the 49ers are off a huge DD win & the Rams are off a tough DD loss. The Rams are not the Bad News Bears and will have more fight in this bitter division rivalry. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 31 San Francisco 14
2* KANSAS CITY over Pittsburgh - The last time these teams met was in 2001 when PIT won 20-17 as a 2 pt AD. This will be the first true challenge for the Steelers defense against a quality pass attack. Passing teams have been the bane of the Steelers franchise lately & KC has avg?d 363 yds offense & 31.6 ppg in their L/9 home games. Priest Holmes was rewarded with a contract extension LW & celebrated with 183 total yds showing no ill effects of his hip injury. Defenses that run the 3-4 tend to give up rushing yards & Pitt allowed 6 gms of 100+ yds LY but held Baltimore?s Jamal Lewis to just 69 yds LW. They will still be without Joey Porter & Kendrell Bell has not mastered the rush DE spot yet. The Chiefs had 12-4 FD & 281-49 yd edges and a 24-0 lead at the end of the 1H before cruising to a 27-14 win LW. The Steelers had a 12-5 FD edge & a 197-101 yd edge & led 13-0 at the end of the 1H. The Chiefs had the NFL?s best OL LY & they returned intact for this season. The Steelers did do well against our 25th ranked offense LW but now face our 2nd ranked offense. FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 31 Pittsburgh 17
NFL OTHER GAMES:
Miami 16 NY JETS 6 - The Jets are 17-6-1 ATS in this series (9-2-1 at home) vs the Dolphins. The SU winner in this series is 11-0-1 ATS the L/12 meetings. The Dolphins went 2-6 SU & ATS on the road LY. The last time Miami won in New York was in 1997 when they won 31-20 as a 3 pt dog. LW Curtis Martin only had 48 yds (3.2 ypc) vs a Redskins team that has a 5th round DC, a 7th rounder and a pair of UFA?s holding the middle together. He faces a stiffer test in with a far more talented Dolphins DL that has faster LB?s than the Redskins. The Jets do have an extra 3 days to gameplan here but in Testeverde?s L/3 starts he has only led the Jets to 23 points & put up 380 yds passing. The Jets are off LW?s emotional defeat where they lost on a FG by former K John Hall with :05 left. The Dolphins were shocked at home by the upstart Texans as they were looking ahead to this game. They now face their arch nemesis in a situation where the Fish are just 4-11 ATS on the road after a SU home loss. We are well aware of all the technical situations that favor the Jets but the Dolphins are the fundamentally superior team here & should improve their focus with a win especially with a division home game against Buffalo on deck.
BALTIMORE 35 Cleveland 31 - The visitor is 6-2 ATS in this series with the dog covering the L/4. LY the Browns went 7-1 ATS on the road. LY Holcomb stepped in for an inj?d QB Couch on Sunday night & put the Ravens back on their heels with a 98 & 76 yd TD drive. The Browns rec?d an onside kick & Holcomb (with a broken leg) took them down to the Ravens 17 before he was picked off with less than 1:00 left. The Browns defense was stout giving up just 270 total yards to the Colts LW and continuously harassed QB Manning. Kyle Boller who threw for 152 yds (51%) with a 1-1 ratio LW was inauspicious in his Raven debut as BAL was hammered by the Steelers. The Ravens front 3 DL are a bit small (6-2 285 avg) & inexperienced so Browns HC Davis, who prefers a power running game, could feature William Green who had 86 yds (4.1 ypc) LW to exploit an offensive opening here. Boller will benefit from a home crowd here & we still believe that Baltimore has a sound defense. This falls right around the number though we do believe that this will be a higher scoring game.
INDIANAPOLIS 27 Tennessee 17 - The Titans won & covered both games vs the Colts LY. The Colts outFD?d them (47-31) & outgained them as well (767-546) but 3 TO?s in the 1st meeting & 2 in the 2nd did them in. The Colts are a stunningly poor 6-20-1 ATS (9-18 O/U) as a Div HF (4-8-1 ATS since 1999) since 1989. They are also 8-20 ATS at home in September. The Colts were lucky to escape the dog pound with a win as Peyton Manning could only manage 211 yds through the air & Marvin Harrison had a very quiet 9 catches for 44 yds (4.9). Tennessee is off LW?s Sunday Night game vs Oakland & those results are unavailable. HC Jeff Fisher is 26-14 ATS as an AD in his tenure here & 8-3 SU & ATS (3-8 O/U) as a Div AD. We feel that Indianapolis is the best team in the AFC South & Manning will want to right the ship after LW?s lackluster offensive performance. The Titans are 2nd best team in the division but they will miss the playoffs partially due to a loss here.
ATLANTA 17 Washington 16 - Steve Spurrier gets to face a former disciple in Doug Johnson in this game. LW the Falcons lost their #2 WR Brian Finneran to a broken hand & will rely on 3rd yr & 7th RD DC WR Quentin McCord to step up. The Redskin defense did a good job containing the Jets LW with 17-11 FD and 327-158 yd edges. They also get another 3 days to gameplan for the Falcons here. Spurrier was only 1-5 LY off a SU win & the Redskins are only 1-4 the L/5Y in road openers. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS the last 16 hosting a non-division team & 2-10 ATS at home off a SU win. Doug Johnson struggled to move the ball early LW & had 85 yds passing (36%) in the 1H against the Cowboys. Atlanta was our System Play Winner LW & the 2nd half of the system is to play against them if they win the previous week.
Buffalo 23 JACKSONVILLE 16 - JAX is 12-4-1 ATS at home in September & 6-0-1 ATS the L/7Y in home openers. Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in their L/8 road openers. BUF returns to the hot & humid Florida climate next week vs division rival MIA. JAX has road games against IND & HOU up next. Jacksonville gave Carolina an unexpected challenge LW & had 10-1 FD and 165-36 yd edges at the end of the 1H. The Panthers came back for the SU win only after they put in Jake Delhomme. In the 2H JAX was outFD?d 16-7 & outgained 206-166 with 65 of the Jags yds coming on a quick strike TD pass. Buffalo had a 23-16 FD edge & outgained the Pats 319-239. We rated Buffalo as our 10th best defense entering the year & that was a key factor in our 3* Late Phone Winner on the Under in their game LW. SS Lawyer Milloy showed his worth to the Bills LW with 5 tkls & a sack. While Buffalo may not have as stout a defense as the Panthers they do have an offense with more weapons which gets the job done here.
NEW ORLEANS 23 Houston 17 - The Texans go from playing an unforgiving defense in a humid grass surface stadium to playing a high powered offense on turf in a domed stadium. The Saints are 4-10-2 the L/16 vs the AFC & 8-15-1 ATS at home the L/3Y. The Saints are 3-9-1 ATS at home off a SU road loss (0-2-1 LY). The Houston OL was outstanding holding the Dolphins sackless & allowing David Carr to scorch the much publicized Miami secondary for 266 yds. We do not want to overreact to the Texans win or the Saints loss LW. The Saints did outgain Seattle 359-270 & outFD?d them 20-17. This will pit the strength vs strength with the Saints offense facing the Texans defense which should keep the game low scoring.
