Round 1 plays (4pts):
Webb Simpson to beat Jordan Spieth -110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365, Stan James and Carib]
Opposing Spieth who has yet to show the consistency of Simpson who has finished in the top-10 in six of his last seven starts and that one 'failure' was a 23rd place position in the Humana Challenge. The other reason for opposing Spieth is that course form is very important around Riviera. He is not the same player that missed the cut two years ago, but Simpson's finishes of 15th and 6th in his two starts here put him at a decisive advantage.
K.J. Choi to beat Ian Poulter -110 @ 5Dimes
A course form angle here as well: Poulter is playing the West Coast Swing to ensure that he has the minimum 15 Tour starts to retain his PGA Tour membership, so he is now playing a course that he hasn't played since 2007 when he missed the cut, as he had done in 2005. Choi has been here every year since 2001 and can count four top-10 finishes on this course. He has also shown decent form this year, finishing 2nd in the Farmers Insurance Open whereas Poulter has a best finish of 47th. Poulter's famous enthusiasm isn't evident this year and I'll certainly oppose him ahead of next week's matchplay event.
Jimmy Walker to beat Jordan Spieth -110 @ 5Dimes
Also opposing Spieth with this year's hottest player. He didn't play the week after his win in the Sony Open in Hawaii, but when he played the week after his win in the Frys.com in October last year, he finished 12th the following week so a post-win letdown appears to be unlikely. And similar to the Simpson play, there is a strong course form element - in the last three years, he has finished 4th, 4th and 16th on this course.