I glanced at your profile and I'm gonna' try to help you. First, you must understand there is a big difference between hitting a losing streak and calling yourself a loser.
If you are calling yourself a loser, I know that you are losing more money than you can afford. THAT IS A BIG RED FLAG.
STOP BETTING. AND I MEAN STOP.
Notice I didn't say quit. I said stop.
If you are out $1000, get on your knees and give thanks that you are not out $2000. Same applies for being out $10,000 or $50,000.
The first thing that needs to be addressed is money management.
Do you bet with a local or an offshore? What's the difference? Some locals have a $50 minimum. I have an offshore that has a $5 minimum. You might think, "Five dollars? Why bother?" Three weeks ago, in college football, I know a guy that hit (4) $5/ 10 team/ 7 point teasers. He invested $20 and made $440 profit. Can you afford to lose $20 on a football Saturday? Sure. Most of us can. Can you afford to lose $440? I damn sure can't.
I am a firm believer in "minimal exposure of your bankroll and conservative wagering." Why? Because I hate losing more than I enjoy winning (figure that one out).
If I'm testing out a new handicapping method, system, angle, etc, I am not gonna bet $100 to see if it works. If I could bet fifty cents, that would be my wager. Unfortunately, my offshore has a $5 minimum wager, so I make a face and bet $5. Could I bet more than $5? Sure, I could.
Last night, you mentioned that you fall for games that look so easy. Stronger team and soft line vs. weaker opponent. You have to take some time off and do some thinking. Before you even think of putting a penny on a game, look at the card, pick out a game/situation or two that has trapped you in the past and start asking questions like you did last night (look at the replies you received! And I'm still blabbin').
There is a lot of good help in this forum. There are very seasoned bettors here that will be willing to offer their opinions. But you need to ask the question.
You also have to understand that this is cyberspace. We are all hiding behind the internet. So, you don't really know if you're listening to someone who really knows what they're talking about or the village idiot. Be careful, here.
Remember when I said that Las Vegas is not in the business of handing out gifts? Let's take last night's game that did you in...west virginia -4' vs. JMADISON.
Question #1. To you, why did that line appear to be so "soft"?
I'll tell you why...
WEST VIRGINIA
11/16...NC ASHEVILLE...83-75 (WIN)
11/23...SO. MISS.......66--5 (WIN)
11/24...@ new mexico...88-85 (WIN)
12/1....ARK-MNTCELLO...105-73 (WIN)
(I don't have the closing lines for these games, so I don't know the ATS results which is also very important. But nonetheless, WVA won 4 games in a row. In your opinion, based on the above record, would you say WVA "has value" or "has no value"?)
JAMES MADISON
11/20...@nc state.....58-75.....(LOSE)
11/24...GRDNR WEBB....85-67.....(WIN)
12/1....DREXEL........58-71.....(LOSE)
So, what does this tell us? JMAD lost to NC state, a pretty good team. No shame there. Then, JMAD beats Gardner Webb (sounds like a farmer!). I don't know anything about Gardner Webb. That's a fact. Then, JMAD loses to Drexel by 13. This could be a key handicapping piece of info. What do we know about Drexel? I don't know anything. But, if JMAD was only getting 4' from a team like West Virginia that has just won 4 in-a-row, I'd bet a $10 bill that Drexel was pretty damn good. Is there shame in losing to a good team on your home court? None. Is there shame in losing to a bad team on your home court. Yes, there is.
In my opinion, I would say James Madison's game against Drexel was the key factor in handicapping this game. In addition, a road favorite that has just won 4-in-a-row is another thing to keep an eye on. Las Vegas is not looking at the win streak. I think they are looking at the how many points they covered by in each of those 4 games. For example, let's assume that West Virginia (in their last 4 games) covered the spread by +2, +4, +6, +8.
Then let's assume, that West Virginia (in their last 4 games) covered the spread by +8, +6, +4, +2.
Do you see the difference? One scenario shows a team "losing value" and the other scenario shows a team "gaining value".
There are many ways to determine a team's value. This, imo, is one of them.
I think you jumped on West Virginia because they won 4 in-a-row and were then playing a team that had just lost to Drexel, a team most of us know nothing about. If you research Drexel, I think you'll find that they're a pretty decent team.
A few years ago, during March Madness, South Carolina was the #1 seed in the East. They were awesome. They made it to the sweet 16. They were a 21 point favorite against Coppin State. For those who knew nothing about Coppin State, they damn sure knew who Coppin State was when that game was over. Coppin State beat South Carolina outright.
If it looks to good to be true, there's a good reason why it appears that way.
If you are calling yourself a loser, I know that you are losing more money than you can afford. THAT IS A BIG RED FLAG.
STOP BETTING. AND I MEAN STOP.
Notice I didn't say quit. I said stop.
If you are out $1000, get on your knees and give thanks that you are not out $2000. Same applies for being out $10,000 or $50,000.
The first thing that needs to be addressed is money management.
Do you bet with a local or an offshore? What's the difference? Some locals have a $50 minimum. I have an offshore that has a $5 minimum. You might think, "Five dollars? Why bother?" Three weeks ago, in college football, I know a guy that hit (4) $5/ 10 team/ 7 point teasers. He invested $20 and made $440 profit. Can you afford to lose $20 on a football Saturday? Sure. Most of us can. Can you afford to lose $440? I damn sure can't.
I am a firm believer in "minimal exposure of your bankroll and conservative wagering." Why? Because I hate losing more than I enjoy winning (figure that one out).
If I'm testing out a new handicapping method, system, angle, etc, I am not gonna bet $100 to see if it works. If I could bet fifty cents, that would be my wager. Unfortunately, my offshore has a $5 minimum wager, so I make a face and bet $5. Could I bet more than $5? Sure, I could.
Last night, you mentioned that you fall for games that look so easy. Stronger team and soft line vs. weaker opponent. You have to take some time off and do some thinking. Before you even think of putting a penny on a game, look at the card, pick out a game/situation or two that has trapped you in the past and start asking questions like you did last night (look at the replies you received! And I'm still blabbin').
There is a lot of good help in this forum. There are very seasoned bettors here that will be willing to offer their opinions. But you need to ask the question.
You also have to understand that this is cyberspace. We are all hiding behind the internet. So, you don't really know if you're listening to someone who really knows what they're talking about or the village idiot. Be careful, here.
Remember when I said that Las Vegas is not in the business of handing out gifts? Let's take last night's game that did you in...west virginia -4' vs. JMADISON.
Question #1. To you, why did that line appear to be so "soft"?
I'll tell you why...
WEST VIRGINIA
11/16...NC ASHEVILLE...83-75 (WIN)
11/23...SO. MISS.......66--5 (WIN)
11/24...@ new mexico...88-85 (WIN)
12/1....ARK-MNTCELLO...105-73 (WIN)
(I don't have the closing lines for these games, so I don't know the ATS results which is also very important. But nonetheless, WVA won 4 games in a row. In your opinion, based on the above record, would you say WVA "has value" or "has no value"?)
JAMES MADISON
11/20...@nc state.....58-75.....(LOSE)
11/24...GRDNR WEBB....85-67.....(WIN)
12/1....DREXEL........58-71.....(LOSE)
So, what does this tell us? JMAD lost to NC state, a pretty good team. No shame there. Then, JMAD beats Gardner Webb (sounds like a farmer!). I don't know anything about Gardner Webb. That's a fact. Then, JMAD loses to Drexel by 13. This could be a key handicapping piece of info. What do we know about Drexel? I don't know anything. But, if JMAD was only getting 4' from a team like West Virginia that has just won 4 in-a-row, I'd bet a $10 bill that Drexel was pretty damn good. Is there shame in losing to a good team on your home court? None. Is there shame in losing to a bad team on your home court. Yes, there is.
In my opinion, I would say James Madison's game against Drexel was the key factor in handicapping this game. In addition, a road favorite that has just won 4-in-a-row is another thing to keep an eye on. Las Vegas is not looking at the win streak. I think they are looking at the how many points they covered by in each of those 4 games. For example, let's assume that West Virginia (in their last 4 games) covered the spread by +2, +4, +6, +8.
Then let's assume, that West Virginia (in their last 4 games) covered the spread by +8, +6, +4, +2.
Do you see the difference? One scenario shows a team "losing value" and the other scenario shows a team "gaining value".
There are many ways to determine a team's value. This, imo, is one of them.
I think you jumped on West Virginia because they won 4 in-a-row and were then playing a team that had just lost to Drexel, a team most of us know nothing about. If you research Drexel, I think you'll find that they're a pretty decent team.
A few years ago, during March Madness, South Carolina was the #1 seed in the East. They were awesome. They made it to the sweet 16. They were a 21 point favorite against Coppin State. For those who knew nothing about Coppin State, they damn sure knew who Coppin State was when that game was over. Coppin State beat South Carolina outright.
If it looks to good to be true, there's a good reason why it appears that way.
