Notes and Info

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DR STRANGELOVE

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Mar 13, 2003
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12/28 Conference Notes: I?m in a tough spot with Purdue all year in the Big Ten. All of my research on them going into conference play featured Hummel and Hart, so I may not even look at their games for a while until I can comprehend what they?re doing different, if anything. Should be a bit of value on Minnesota if Nolen does in fact suit up because Wisconsin hasn?t really played a team with an inside presence all year, and definitely not in their last four games. Both teams have plenty of prep time going into conference play, so this should be a good matchup. I value Wisconsin slightly over Minnesota in conference play, so a few points of value on Minnesota here. Depaul has won three games in a row, so the confidence should be high going into conference play at Cincinnati. Cincy has won 12 straight and have failed to lose, while Depaul?s road games have been ugly. Cincy won this game last year by 5 despite not making a single three-point attempt and shooting 43% on a total of 32 free throw attempts. I think this is a rough spot for USF going on the road to open the Big East. Seton Hall hasn?t looked that great in previous losses to Dayton and Richmond, but their defense has been pretty good, and that?s really all you need to beat USF. The return of Gilchrist to the USF lineup will help them in the long-term for the season, but against a Seton Hall team that is going to get up and down, it could be a negative factor here having only played one game for 19 minutes in a much slower environment, conditioning could come into play. Seton Hall has looked awful without Hazell, but this could be one of the matchups that benefit them at the guard slot if they can control the pace and get USF up and down. Seton Hall also has revenge. Not really interested in Providence or Syracuse until I can see a bit more from both teams in conference play. Providence is pretty young, but they have some slashers that should help going against the zone. I will have more to offer on the Big West & Summit matchups in a bit.

12/28 Non-Conference Notes: Valpo has revenge from last year?s meeting with Ball State that saw Ball State shoot an amazing 58% from the floor, but what?s even more amazing, is that they attempted 48 free throws in that game compared to Valpo?s 24. It was a home opener for Ball State and the first road game for Valpo last year, so that could be the reason for the ugly game. This is a really weird scheduling spot Valpo. They just won a tournament in which they beat host school Oakland in a marathon of a game, and they have Butler on deck for an important Horizon League matchup. The thing that sticks out with this game is that both teams are coming off games where they scored 103 and 95 respectively. Now, they both have had a week off and with Christmas break, I wouldn?t expect anywhere near close to that. The two teams are pretty familiar with each other and both teams are much improved on the defensive side of the ball. Actually, Valpo has gotten TONS better defensively this year and it has showed. They still like to get up and down a bit, but Ball State should be able to control the pace here, and with the slight look ahead and sandwich situation with Valpo having Butler on deck, this is a pretty prime flat spot and one that points to the under. Both teams defend guards awfully well. Siena has been getting out in transition a bit more with Clarence Jackson out of the lineup to offset their offensive efficiencies. They?ve attempted shots of 61 and 57 in their last two, but have been shooting terribly. St. Bonaventure on the other hand, has played a game that went into 4 OT?s and followed that up with another OT game in which they looked gassed. With that said, probably not going to get a good effort from St. Bonaventure on the defensive end due to tired legs, and both teams should be able to get some shots up. The Bonnies have played two teams from the MAAC this year that totaled 150(Canisius) and 130 (Niagara). The Niagara game was lined at 144, and Siena brings in a much better offense, even without Jackson. There is some value in going over the 140, but I can?t play it with all these minutes logged by the Bonnies, break or no break. I like Niagara, although it?s more gut then anything. I can?t explain it. They match up decent at the guard spot, think they have a slight advantage in the post. They?re record is awful, but they?ve been on the road all year basically. They?re a team that is definitely under-performing, and I need to dig a bit deeper to see why.

Bets
Ball State/Valparaiso Under 135 (1 Unit)
 
D

DR STRANGELOVE

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12/28 Conference Notes Cont'd: One important thing to note on the Big West Conference season: A majority of these schools are close to one another, and with very little attendance, and a hop/skip/jump short bus rides, there really isn?t a home court advantage on too many schools. Pacific is one of the schools who has showed an advantage, but they also have the best coach and have been the best team for a few years now. Some decent matchups in the Big West Conference tonight, with probably the best matchup being Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara. Both of these teams prepared themselves well for the conference run as they both played high-end schedule strengths. I will look elsewhere in the conference, and that?s with UC Davis. These two teams played each other three times last year with UC Davis coming out on top all three times, and all three featured close ballgames, so the familiarity is there. They shot a worse percentage from the floor in two of those games, and still won outright. As for this year?s makeup of each team, I have commented on UC Davis quite a bit in previous posts. Having two guards in the backcourt that are 6?7? and 6?8? is going to be a nightmare matchup for any team with having to defend Payne and Harden. Payne is a great distributor of the ball, and Harden was the Hustle player of the year in the conference last year. Coming into the year, they were hoping to find some role players to go along with the big-two, and early they could not find anyone. It took an injury about four games ago, and a slight change in offensive philosophy to find a role player, and that role player is Eddie Miller. He?s started the last four games for the Aggies and has played better than both Payne and Harden in the past four games, which included road games against North Dakota State and UCLA. They covered both of those games as dogs, and primarily featured five guard offensive sets, which is a slight change from earlier in the year when they were a more focused defensive squad. They?ve taken a weakness in rebounding, and put that into scoring more points and getting up and down at a faster pace, which is what they?ll need in this conference to compete, which I fully expect them to do this year. In many instances, when a team loses it?s defensive stud (like UC Davis has done here with Lowenthal), they fail to take advantage and see a drop off. In this case, for some odd reason, they haven?t really seen a dropoff, and have actually produced a better product than before. They?ve taken the smallest guard on the court (which is 6?3? by the way), and replaced his in-effective offense with a 6?5? slasher and scorer, and it?s paid off. UC Davis will probably start the seven footer in the middle to start, but I don?t expect him to see many minutes in this contest. I?ve also commented on Fullerton a few times this year, primarily noting the huge amount of luck they had last year, playing 6 overtime games, and sneaking out a ton of close victories. Those things usually adjust to the mean after you lose a few players, and that?s what is happening. They have four wins, two of those wins came against San Diego, and another a win against Occidental. Coming in, the team was in trouble. They?re PG Streeter decided to transfer in the off-season, and Bryce Webster decided to go pro (yet he was undrafted). They brought in a ton of junior college transfers to adapt to going up-tempo, and it?s paid off a bit offensively, but their defense is one of the worst in the country. Probably, the most important player they brought in was Andre Hardy, and he just returned from an injury just one game ago. He?s small for a post player at 6?6?, but he was a fantastic rebounder at Oral Roberts. The lone returner that I?m worried about is Peltier who hit 70+ three-balls as a freshman, but without a true PG to distribute the ball, he?s being forced to take shots that he normally wouldn?t, thus putting it up at only a 34% clip. He comes in at 5?11?, and was guarded in all three games last year by Joe Harden who is 6?7? and this is key. In the 77 minutes Peltier played in last year?s matchups, he was 8-20 from the field, however, when Harden was on the court, Peltier shot 4-16. Harden was in foul trouble in the second meeting last year, and while Harden was on the bench at the end of the 1H, Peltier hit a few three?s. He would go quiet the rest of the game, until the last few minutes of regulation and OT due to Harden fouling out late 2H. Yes, I?m sick that I know all of this, but I watched this game last year with great detail b/c these two were going to meet in the Conference tournament a few days after this game was played and I wanted to see what was going to transpire. It was the one game that really caught me on the makeup of this UC Davis team, and it?s helped in most situations I?ve used them...


...
As for tonight?s game, there is two keys I see present. One, UC Davis has always been a team that has liked to slow itself down, get the best shot available, and use its height to its advantage in the half-court setting. However, they can no play both styles, and they?re being forced to play both styles with the help of Eddie Miller?s scoring. They have not shyed away from getting up and down against a high pace team this year, and they shouldn?t here. They?re not doing any offensive rebounding or crashing the glass, and with the addition of Hardy to the Fullerton roster, they won?t be able to tonight either, so they?re going to get out and go. The second key is Harden on Peltier as I?ve noted. If Harden can stay active in the game, he should be able to put a strangle on Peltier, thus limiting the Fullerton offense immensely. This is a play simply on what I feel is the better conference team as a whole and a fade on a team which I feel will struggle in the Big West all year. The team owns an impressive 65-29 record at home under Burton, but that is contributed to a 35-3 non-conference mark against teams they have no business playing (they have the worst strength of schedule combined last five years in Big West). So, they?re just 30-26 in conference home games, nothing to be overly excited or fearful of, considering they have had better teams than this one in the past, also noting an average of below 700 people attending games this year. Neither of these teams are world beaters, but there should be a significant talent difference in conference play.

No real value in the Summit League openers, Oakland probably could be favored by more than the 25 they currently are. Slight lean to IPFW, decent game and matchups against Oral Roberts. Those two teams are pretty similar and should be close to each other in the Summit by year?s end. Oral Roberts offense has been atrocious with the loss of Craion early in the year, and they haven?t been able to recover being on the road basically since the beginning of the season. It should help that they?re at home, but Craion is to Oral Roberts as Hazell is to Seton Hall, only Craion was counted on for much more than offense. He scored, he slashed, he defended, he rebounded, and he got to the foul line. IPFW offense is decent enough to hang.

Bets
UC Davis +2 (2 Units)
Ball State/Valparaiso Under 135 (1 Unit)
 
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