notes

[selkirk]

this week a shareclub I belong to (there are two both meet once a month), picked a portfolio for a contest. 10 stocks/$100,000, each stock equal weighting, no trading, picks in jan and ends in november. no prizes just to see who is the best (or how badly we can do).

(everyone picked two stocks, then came down to a vote)
stocks had to trade on the TSE and are in CDN$

dividends do not count towards the total just capital appreciation

portfolio
1.Bombardier (maker of regional jets over $15cdn.)
2.CAE flight simulators over $10cdn
3.Bank of nova scotia $50cdn not a bad bank limited upside
4. Sobeys a grocery store, when people are scared they buy grocery stores Loblaws, Sobeys.
5. Anigotech is developing stents (heart)
6. Saputo (TSE=SAP) Cheese please, involved in Cheese and diary, also Vachon cakes, great company should earn $3 next year trading at $25cdn. put a 10X have a $30 stock, looking for a 15X. earnings are influeced by the price of cheese (they use of coarse) cheese wholesale prices should go higher still like the company, was my suggestion.

7. Nortel would have rather picked a tracking stock to track cdn. tech, ie. XIT. Actually would not mind Nortel falling, believe the stock sits, and waits until 2003. worse call ever made was when I stated it was still expensive but at $60 cdn, could go back to $90cdn. if they met their numbers, stock went to $30 of coarse I did say to bail when they disappointed, now trades at $11.

8. Noranda base metals company which may cut their div next year, good mines just low zinc and copper prices, would avoid.

9. TRP Transcanada prefer enbridge but this stock yield 4% which does not count for the contest trading around $19 upside limited to around $22.

10. Vincor a wine company, close to fully valued but good company with growth prospects

there is the list if it was up to me, only had one vote, would not have Noranda and TRP. also probably would throw out Angiotech.

member suggest Penwest natural gas play would have put a few energy companies in. also inco was suggested over noranda.

my other selection was coolbrands would wait until february to buy it, they make Eskimo pies, and other ice cream treats, when it is 100 in the summer people will look around for a small cap company in the ice cream business with growing revenues, just a fun play.

hope we win but doubt our chances.

will have a few reviews of some book currently reading. and the predictions for another year late December.

thanks
selkirk

 

[beertime]

hey sellkirk i pop in and check your writeups as others do im sure.i havent had time to look at stocks or gambling lately due to work but chit happens.

im curious if you have an opinion on a company i bought last year called neoforma.(NEOF).

its a company that helps sell medical goods to hospitals over the internet in a nutshell.
maybe if neemer reads this he would have an opinion also.

bsically in the last year i bought in at a buck a share and it reverse split 10 times and opened back up at 7 bucks a share and over the last six months or so has reached almost 28 bucks a share today.im back ahead and am thinking i should grab a buck or two and look elsewhere?or just let it ride?

no big deal but was curious if you heard of this company at all and had any opinions.

take it easy.

 

[selkirk]

beertime I have been busy also, think it goes with the season, also had trouble with my computers (2) that is now fixed now having trouble with my dish, will be fixed getting an new LNB. also hoping for a stock to drop another 10%.

I do not follow NEOF so it would be interesting to get someone in the medical field to give their response of how usefull it is and wether it works.

4 brokers are covering the stock and earnings estimates,year, run from .25-.32 a share. the number of hospitals they have signed up keeps increasing, good news as well as suppliers.

the stock was almost delisted new management seems to have helped this situation. good turnaround story.

when a stock has had a good run I may take some off the table (orginal cost maybe a little more), but as long as the stock reacts well and the news is generally positive I keep the stock.

would set stop losses, as the stock breaks through these stop losses would sell it. would also increase the stop losses as the stock moves higher.

I do not sell a stock making new highs and do not buy a stock making new lows, just a rule, go by.

one more thing if a company gives out bad news and the stock reacts badly I ussually find the exit, this could be a huge miss in earnings, revenues, accounting errors. if the company gets everything corrected can always buy the stock later.

good luck with it, looking at some small drug companies that have got beaten down, most are spec plays.

happy holdiays to everyone
thanks
selkirk

 

[beertime]

thanks for the response sellkirk.ill probably let it hang for the time being and see if it climbs anymore or stop like you said.merry christmas to all and to all a good year.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Thanks for all your efforts Selkirk!!!

Good work!

 

[redsfann]

 

[selkirk]

thanks for the response, will have the annual predictions soon and a review of last years (they were about 500). Saputo is up to $28 hopefully will not go up to much more since the contest start on the Jan 1.

will bring back the oil thread oil stocks look to be good value if oil can hold $20 if it increases to $25 well then they should have a nice bounce.

note hearing more bearish comments on Natural gas which can mean only that this time next year that is also higher.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

shareclub contest update

shareclub contest update

had the monthly shareclub meeting last friday 6-8. found out the prices of the shares we selected, date selected was early January (7?). anyways here is the stocks and the prices along with current prices and my thoughts.
cannot trade these stocks hold for one year.

stocks TSE CDN $

Angiotech ANP $86.25 current $85.34
unlucky on this one as it was $68 when we chose it for the contest in December. would keep it.

Bank of Nova Scotia $50.10 $45.95
hurt by Argentina may have to write off $700 million worse case scenario. would keep it. maybe write covered calls on it.

CAE $11.97 $10.13
trains pilots how to fly, and also builds flight simulators. would write covered calls on the stock but would keep it, more of their business is coming from the military.

Bombardier BBD.b $17.30 $12.79
makes regional jets and trains, when we selected the company was $14 and heading higher. if I could would sell the stock. announced they are taking Chrysler to court, the train operation they bought off them is apperently worth 0. they are landing train contracts but the profit compared to planes is very small. at $12.79 would sell the stock.

note: I wrote $10 put on BBd.b in November got between $1.10- $1.20 (was trading at $11.50 at the time). will keep the position however should probably close it out and take my gains.

Noranda NRD $15.65 $16.72
I voted against this stock, just because it yields over 4% and you cannot count divs. would rather have Inco, or Alcan, may move more. still not a bad stock to have for a base metal play.

Nortel $13.57 $8.70
like I said before would rather had something a little more diversified for a tech holding, like XIT. networking stocks are reporting lower revenue with no end in sight, Nortel will miss revenue numbers this quarter, and Bell South is another large teleco that is cutting back on spending this year. and will probably do the same next year. may come back but if I could would SELL SELL SELL SELL

Saputo SAP $25.95 $28.50
my selection that got selected, they produce cheese, cakes, bread, milk, mostly a diary play. on the TSE just announced good earnings and growing revenues. hit $30. bought some, basically bought for $26 and sold for $29, $3 gain in one month is not a bad gain. hit $30. will look at buying back if it falls below $26. other half of my positon going to keep. stop loss $24. good stock

Sobeys SBY $33.50 $33.42
grocery store play, Loblaws their rival and bigger company (1/3 of all food sales) is the winner so far this year. Walmart rumours about a take over. would be expensive but would give Walmart a large position in the Canadian Grocery store market. would keep sobeys in the portfolio.

do not own Sobeys or Loblaws which I feel is expensive. of coarse Loblaws still keeps going up so.....

Trans Canada Pipelines TRP $19.74 $21.36
I voted against this company to because could not count div. over 4% yield. they increase their div. conservative pipeline paying over 4% yield. worse plays than this. would write covered calls, with calls and div should be able to get a 15% return for the year.

Vincor VN $22.90 $22.52
have not looked much at this wine company, but it looks good with good growth, just seems fully valued.

by the way three most selected stocks among all of the shareclubs were Bombardier, Nortel, CAE. in any year the most popular selections I find do not usually hold up well.

My second stock I suggest Coolbrands COB.a TSE. was rejected it was small cap and under $5 so thought it would be. anyways stock in December was around $3.80, now it is $4.44. believe it could hit $5. just did a $15 million bought deal, so they can raise money. which some large companies cannot say in this market. Basically an Ice cream play, for a hot summer, would have stop loss at $4.15.

will have an update on the stock and the contest in three months or so.....

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

shareclub contest update

shareclub contest update

my monthly shareclub meeting is coming up so thought would review our contest portfolio. These are stocks picked in late December 01, and bought in early Jan, divs do not count, and cannot trade any. also must trade on Toronto

the two I suggested were Coolbrands (COB.a) ice cream and Saputo (SAP)diary,milk

name price bought current
Angiotech ANP $86.25 current $74.30
this one is volatile do not follow it much.

Bank of Nova Scotia $50.10 $51.25
wrote off most Argentina assets, still good operating numbers, want to own a small bank, there are worse plays. trades on TSE,NYSE

CAE $11.97 $10.35
If I owned this stock would write options against it, treading water for now.

Bombardier BBD.b $17.30 $14.30
same as CAE, write options against the position, note: I have $10 puts out on Bombardier, seem safe. stock will tread water. maybe now will write $12.50 puts, nothing yet.

Noranda NRD $15.65 $17.73
I voted against this stock, just because it yields over 4% and you cannot count divs. still it is doing good, and the div seems safe and will give the stock support.

Nortel $13.57 $8.09
like I said before would rather had something a little more diversified for a tech holding, like XIT. Nortel if lucky will have earnings in 2003, maybe 2004, why hold the stock. SELL SELL SELL SELL

Saputo SAP $25.95 $31.34
my selection that got selected, they produce cheese, cakes, bread, milk, mostly a diary play. on the TSE. when I made this selection some people did not think highly of owning a diary stock. still 20.77% return in three months is very good in this market. note I sold half my position at $29 (like an idiot) and made over 11% on half of my position. The other half I am holding in no hurry to sell.

Sobeys SBY $33.50 $35.15
not crazy about Sobeys or Loblaws but they keep going up, it will probably have a good year.



Trans Canada Pipelines TRP $19.74 $21.86
I voted against this company to because could not count div. over 4% yield. decent stock, good yield growing earnings, and the div will also grow in the future. boring but stable. would write covered calls or puts on the stock to enhance return.

Vincor VN $22.90 $25.25
the stock seems to me fully valued but read a research report with a $28 target. good wine company and if it hits $28 no complaints.

well 6 stocks up, 4 down, not bad start. If I could would have thrown out Bbd.b, cae, and nortel just because they were the most widely selected.

Coolbrands (cob.a) my small cap that was not selected is up 44.73% (roughly ) it was $3.80 in late December and is now around $5.50. my one year target was $5, but who know when a stock goes on a run.

note: own a position in Coolbrands and Saputo, mainly to see how they would do. also positions in BBd.b (options), BNS, and slowly building a position and have options out on TRP.

thanks
selkirk

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

thanks for the write-up buddy....!!

 

[selkirk]

cxontest update

cxontest update

an update on the contest, we are in 4th place out of 8 teams. we have been buried by a few stocks. on the good side as of March 29, our portfolio was up $1,003, not good but at least on the plus side. We are tied for first with the most stocks in positive territory with 7.

here is a review of what I think of the picks with latest prices.

name price bought current
Angiotech ANP $86.25 current $71.09
do not follow it,

Bank of Nova Scotia $50.10 $53.80
Canadians are starting to bid up bank stocks, BNS is well run, not cheap but which Cdn. bank is, still not a bad stock to own.

CAE $11.97 $12.02
this stock has won some military contracts, for their flight simulators, and the stock has gone up since last update. would forget about the options nothing good on Montreal on CAE. could hit $14 but getting fully valued.

Bombardier BBD.b $17.30 $14.27
would write options against the position, have written $10, and $12.50 puts. treading water.

Noranda NRD $15.65 $18.42
has had a nice run, base metals stocks have done well as people hope better economic times are here.

Nortel $13.57 $5.54
stock is down sharply from last update of $8.09 when I said SELL SELL SELL SELL, still do not like it, but would hold it at this point and write options against the position. so HOLD

Saputo SAP $25.95 $31.80
my selection, sold half at $29 good food company, fully valued but happy with the pick in this market.

Sobeys SBY $33.50 $39.75
not crazy about Sobeys or Loblaws but they keep going up, it will probably have a good year. Candians want to buy grocery stores companies, valuations are getting stretched but will not argue with stocks on the way up.

Trans Canada Pipelines TRP $19.74 $22.13
may get hurt by rising interest rates, but still not a bad stock to hold in this market.

Vincor VN $22.90 $25.60
the stock seems to me fully valued but read a research report with a $28 target. still doing well


my small cap selection Coolbrands that was not selected around $3.80 is now at $6.26. own a position, they sell Ice cream and weight watchers products (good plan people need to lose weight after eating the ice cream ). at the meeting reminded everyone about Coolbrands, maybe next contest we will select a few small caps.

stop loss on Coolbrands 50% at $5.75 the other 50% at 5.25. announced increased earnings and revenue, my orginal target is $5. believe it is fully valued but if the market wants to take it higher...have no complaints.

note: own a position in Coolbrands and Saputo, mainly to see how they would do. also positions in BBd.b (options), BNS (own the stock and have written $50 puts), and slowly building a position and have options out on TRP.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

May udpate: the monthly shareclub meeting is tongiht so will give a quick update on the stocks the club chose, had to trade on the TSE (now called the TSX-that marketing for you) and did not count divs, and could not sell any positions.

purchase price current price
Angiotech ANP $86.25 $64.27
the drug stocks got hammered this past month do not follow the stock.

Bank of Nova Scotia bns $50.10 $53.50
the cdn. banks have held up well, but they may fall further in the coming months, not at their cheapest valuations, still not a bad stock to have in a portfolio.

CAE $11.97 $12.62
makes flight simulators, winning some nice military contracts. do not follow it closely but would look at it around $11.50.

Bombardier (BBd.b) $17.30 $14.45
has not done much of late, I have $10 June puts written in November and Oct $12.50 puts (march/april). stock is fairly valued here. would write options on it if I held it.

Noranda NRD $15.65 $19.19
stock has done better than I thought, div appears safe, large spending on mines is winding down, good base metals play. did not like it since it yielded over 4% and we could not count divs. has worked out well.

Nortel $13.57 $4.49
well should have kept the SELL SELL SELL SELL instead of hold since last update at $5.54. would still rate it a hold but would sell covered calls against it, $7 dec, $6 Dec, $6 sept. anyone one of those not much upside, of coarse do not think they go bankrupt this year. what a thing to say about the once mighty Nortel. blowing billions on useless acquistitions will do kill even the great companies (past tense).

Saputo sap $25.95 $33.40
my selection for the club, must love a well run food company, mostly cheese and milk, however went grocery store shopping and noticed one of their diaries was selling pure Orange Juice and Apple Juice. so with in arm reach you can buy their orange juice, apple juice, milk and few steps away their cheese. up over 28%.

note I sold half at $29, idiot move. keeping the other half, target $35 for year end.

Sobeys SPY $33.50 $42.05
has done well Cdn. like defensive stocks and everyone has to eat, doing well, strong competition from the GREAT LOBLAWS.
note hopefully Saputo can gain more, know the person who suggested this stock and we have $50 bet on the line....cdn. of coarse.

TransCanada TRP $22.90 $23.50
voted against this stock because cannot count div, fully valued but if you want a stock with a 4% yield and probably growing divs, better than 1% sitting in cash. Cdn. pipelines like Enbridge and TransCanada have provided good steady return unlike the US companies. both ENB and TRP are close to fully valued but would add them on a 10% pullback. own ENB and TRP (options out to)

Vincor VN
$22.90 $25
actually down $1.60 today do not know why on a pullback to low $20s cdn. would look at it, good wine company, just not crazy about the price, still $28 target is in site.

Coolbrands the other stock I suggested but was not accepted (small caps never are) around $3.75-$3.80 now at $5.90. my target was $5 for the year but do not argue with a stock, market likes it, getting more coverage have stops at $5.50 and $5.25. up over 55%.
have small positions in Saputo and Coolbrands, wish I bought more.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

last meeting until September was held on June 14, 2002. talked about BCE, Onex, trouble with cdn. banks, ie. TD. chance of it testing $32.50. most liked BCE thought it would go over $30 cdn. and perphaps even better.

since then BCE has decided to buy 20% of Bell Cdn. from SBC for $6.3 billion. BCE is better served by resovling this issue and owning 100% of the cash cow Bell Cdn.

here is our contest holdings my two picks Saputo and Coolbrands have done well so far.

purchase price current price

Update of shareclub contest (prices as of July 5.)

Angiotech ANP $86.25 $56.48
drug sector has gotten destroyed, actually looking at juniors, great potential and no one cares.

Bank of Nova Scotia bns $50.10 $49.67
very good cdn. bank may have trouble in Brazil, due to left winning elections in the fall. would wait for a cheaper price to buy.

CAE $11.97 $11.75
bought some CAE, yesterday, went down as they are going to list in the US ($11.29). small position. worth watching, makes simulators, mainly flight. civilian and military. starting to like the company.

Bombardier (BBd.b) $17.30 $12.45
have options on it, July $10 puts, should expire and $12.50 in the fall maybe trouble.


Noranda NRD $15.65 $19.65
stock has done better than I thought. by the way the person who suggested this stock and Sobeys also like Onex and BCE.


Nortel $13.57 $2.51
would rate it a hold. but close to a spec buy. Nortel has won some contracts but ussually shoots itself in the foot. close to a spec. buy.


Saputo sap $25.95 $29.90
my selection for the club, note I sold half at $29, idiot move. keeping the other half, target $35 for year end.

Sobeys SPY $33.50 $41.95
defensive stocks have done well in Canada, people are falling in love with Loblaws and Sobeys.

TransCanada TRP $22.90 $23.25
would write some options on this if you own it, however yields over 4%, just a boring pipeline company. when compared to some of the US pipelines that might be a good thing.

Vincor VN
$22.90 $25.75
good wine stock, could hit $28 good return in this environment.

Coolbrands the other stock I suggested but was not accepted ($3.75-$3.80 now at $7.30.
stop loss has been moved up to $6.50.
almost a double.

have small positions in Saputo and Coolbrands, wish I bought more.


thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

Well the contest is over, no club managed to make money, in this market came down to who loss less. We will finish in 2-3 out of 8 clubs. not bad would have liked to have won.
would have liked dividends to count (that would have helped us only 3 of our stocks did not pay a div, also a chance to drop 2 stocks every 3 months as we had some huge losers.

final recap. will start a new thread for the next one.


Angiotech ANP $86.25 $57.45
do not follow it,

Bank of Nova Scotia bns $50.10 $45.89
we now have a cheaper price, not a bad entry for the long term investor, they may have some more loan losses on American Utilities. hopefully in the future they stick closer to home.

CAE $11.97 $5.35
I got stopped out on this stock and now I wrote puts that are in the money still think can play this for a profit. makes simulators, problem high debt load, so if you play it, a small play and there is higher risk


Bombardier (BBd.b) $17.30 $5.40
own some, put to me, hopefully the airline business turns around, currently have $6 Jan calls out on my position


Noranda NRD $15.65 $14.27
looked at one of the new mines they brought into production. these people cannot operate a mine, would rather own Alcan or Inco or about a dozen other mining stocks. high div yield should support it, but would rather play Alcan or Inco for base metals.


Nortel $13.57 $2.02
would rate it a hold. but close to a spec buy. Nortel has won some contracts but ussually shoots itself in the foot. close to a spec. buy.

Nortel after falling to 70 cents Cdn. is now going up now at around $2.20. If they do not do a reverse rollback, the stock could go to $3+. still high debt and if the industry does not pick up next year this stock could be in big trouble. just a good momentum stock not a long term buy.

Saputo sap $25.95 $24.80
my selection for the club, note I sold half at $29, idiot move. keeping the other half, target $35 for year end.

well I sold the other half of the position at $25.50, latest report earnings were up slightly but revenue was down. Cheese prices in the US are weak. good company and it made me money in a terrible market, but the defensive food plays are over. will look at the stock if it drifts to $22.50. will take my gain and just watch it for now.

Sobeys SPY $33.50 $37.25
defensive stocks have done well in Canada, people are falling in love with Loblaws and Sobeys.

person who recomended this stock has sold it at $37.50, again not a bad stock but defensive food stocks have had a good run in a difficult market time to take some or all off the table.

TransCanada TRP $22.90 $22.84
would write some options on this if you own it, however yields over 4%, just a boring pipeline company. when compared to some of the US pipelines that might be a good thing.

would continue to own some TRP maybe do some options on them along with the div you get a good return. they are looking to buy assets for US utilities that are desperate to sell. A conservative company and would still hold as they may get some good buys in the sector.

Vincor VN
$22.90 $23.65
good wine stock, could hit $28 good return in this environment.

has not done bad, do not own it.

Coolbrands the other stock I suggested but was not accepted ($3.75-$3.80 now at $7.30.
stop loss has been moved up to $6.50.
almost a double.

sold as it hit my stop loss $6.50, now trades at $5.50.

good return was focussed on the Ice cream but they also make Weight watchers. A company that sell fatteing Ice cream and then sell you meals to lose weight. great concept.

still good company sold and do not like managment they tried to grant themselves 20% of the company in stock options, it was later lowered, not enough to suit me. Also it is getting more coverage so will look for another small cap. do not trust managment.

well there is the contest we did not do bad and both of my picks made money which is better than if they tanked. thanks
for reading these ramblings.

thanks
selkirk

 

[1837]

Thanks Selkirk for your hard work. My brother works for CAE in Montreal and things are going back to normal. If i had some $ for the market, i would definitely buy some stock at the cheap price it is now...

 

[selkirk]

1837 I believe will make decent profit on CAE, using options on the stock...time will tell. Know someone who works at an airport and he knows of 4 flight simulators that are going to be bought. However says the airline industry will take time to recover.

the Company got out of many businesses they should have never been in, but then managment went on a buying binge and had some rose coloured glasses on, they thought their business would only expand and grow at 10-15%+. very good company my main concern is their debt.

thanks
selkirk