Novotel French Open

[Ian]

Been waiting to see when Pierre Fulke was going to put in a reappearance and this week is it, he does play well when fresh and having had a break since his 20th in Dubai could go well on a course where he has finished 3rd before - 66/1 at Coral seems quite generous when you consider the amount of shorter priced players who have not won before.
Adding a very speculative play on Nystrom at 100/1 Sporting Odds - has the ability to win at any time - bit like Stenson

 

[Ian]

Going to jump in on a couple of Clives picks with Sports.com - Jacobson 80/1 (100/1 for 4 place option) and Gilford 100/1 (125/1) - they also go 175/1 for my earlier pick Nystrom - so had to add a bit more!

 

[milpalm]

For me it's Jacobson at 80/1, Leaney at 40/1 and Owen at 50/1. Jacobson has some decent finishes this year at was 4th last year. Leaney was impressive down under and hopefully he has preserved that form. Owen did me a favour last week so I'm not deserting him now.

 

[bettingmad]

Greg Owen 50/1 1EW Bet365
Should Olazabal hold the title I will have some explaining to do to myself as to why I didn't back him... but the venue is different to last year so I will try a player in form at a more generous price. Owen's last 2 outings have produced 3rds in the Spanish & weather shortened Portugese and he was also a creditable 12th in Dubai and 9th in the Heineken - he looks a winner about to happen.... hopefully it will be this week. Hope Miguel Angel Martin doesn't do what Rocco Mediate did ... and win the week after losing my cash!

Owen now 40/1 at bet365 but 45/1 at sports.com with Sluman 66/1 both on the 4 place market (tasty 3081/1 double?)

Clive,
On the betfair front Petterson at 31 is a tempting lay.... he had an awful finish last week and his win was the weather shortened Portugese... what do you think?

 

[Clive]

Rather you than me...he looks pretty cool, don't think that will bother him at all.
There's plenty of low 40's available on Owen on Betfair which you would be most welcome to back! Now he's been tipped by the Life I hope to make a little profit on the 50s I took yesterday.

Jacobson is one of my favs and 66/1 is fair...problem with playing early in the week is that you miss sports.com prices

Stephen Leaney 40/1 ..if he can bring his form from Aus he must stand a good chance

David Gilford 80/1 (100 sports) could be on his way back and he has some decent finishes on this course

Good to see Ollie here, although couldn't back him at that price, although one forum which will remain nameless see him as a mortgage job...not for me

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Ricardo Gonzalez to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
No great surprises with this week's selections. All three finished in the top-6 last week and had previously been in excellent form. Gonzalez has a high finish of 26th this year and has secured two 6th place finishes. He needs to go at least one better this week and can surely do so against a weak field.

Carl Pettersson to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Finishes of 3rd, 1st and 4th in his last four events and the odds on Pettersson to win have fallen significantly since first backed at the end of last year. He has not played this course before this week, but such is his current form, it should not be a major handicap. He knows he can win on this Tour, but he will be determined to win over the full 72 holes this time.

Greg Owen to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Sportingbet
Back-to-back top-3 finishes for the Englishman and he should be as confident about his game as the other selections. Course form at Le Golf National is not that impressive, but he is a much better player in the last couple of years. He has played well at the nearby St-Nom-la-Breteche and looks good value against a field without most of its top players.

 

[bettingmad]

Bottled it... decided not lay Petterson... not going against Clive AND Stanley. Will review betfair offers in-running.

 

[Svengali]

I have been watching this site for some months now and really appreciated some of your steers. I have been primarily betting on match betting with some success (and some spectacular failures) and am going to post a few. This week -

E.Romero to beat Van de Velde @ Sports.com (10/11) (3 pts)
Van de Velde's outings this year have been pretty unspectacular and there's not much evidence of a break helping his game. He's missed cuts in 4 of the last 7 outings with only 2nd over quite a tame Cannes Mougins course at the end of last season standing out when he was fighting for his card. In comparison Romero has not missed a cut in Europe since Loch Lomond last year and has shown some form this season with a 4th in his last outing at Doha. Sure the French factor will help Van de Velde but not enough I think.


Leaney to beat Levet @ Bluesq (10/11) (2pts)
I have seen elsewhere the comments on what could happen if Leaney gets it going in Europe as he did in Australia over the winter and he certainly could be up there frequently this year. Levet has far from impressed this year and again I don't think the French factor will be enough - he has only ever made one cut in this competition once.

 

[Clive]

Welcome Svengali...

We need all the help we can get!!

 

[Snap-hooker]

I don't know what rules you have regarding bookies to be mentioned at this forum but I made a bet today at Centrebet which I thought was really good.

G.Owen to beat R. Karlsson over 72 holes @ 1.80 (5 units)

Last time I watched they had lowered it to 1.70 but I still think it's good value, when you look at their form lately. Karlsson must be really swinging bad for the moment since he didn't make the cut in a tournament he won last year!

 

[Monarch]

What is up with some of the greens at this place? I think 16 is a little worse than my back garden after I've taken my L-Wedge to it. Those French are full of diseases.

 

[bettingmad]

Midpoint update.

No surprises here as I'm on a roll...

Mediate m/c, then MA Martin m/c & Kuchar m/c and now Owen m/c ... doesn't look good for my Compaq man Sluman... currently hovering on the cut line

I have the forum tipping yips.... only saving grace is that the last 3 weeks have been non events.... with fancies hard to come by so stakes were low.

At least with Petterson in 8th glad I didn't lay him

 

[Svengali]

Both matches settled at halfway stage. Leaney showed that the lay off hasn't done him the world of good and his form isn't quite there yet - will avoid him until we see the green shoots of recovery - probably about November. Romero is looking very solid and Jean V de V was dead after yesterday - had a good round today so some promise for upcomng months.

No real interest for the weekend but I think that Immelman with 4 shots could do it but it's a big ask. 3-1 at BetFair doesn't look silly although Olly justifies favouritism.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 1-4-0; -7.41 units

Leaney/Van de Velde LOST by 6 (at cut)
Owen/Canonica LOST by 9 (at cut)
O'Malley/O'Hern LOST by 14
Gilford/Dyson LOST as both players were tied
Green/Forsyth WON by 3

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Gonzalez 11th
Pettersson 28th
Owen mc

Poor and frustrating event. Gilford managed to bogey the last three holes to finish tied with Dyson which meant a loss at Easybets. Would have broken event on the matchups otherwise. Gonzalez and Pettersson were always in contention, but poor final rounds ended any hope of a profitable event.