Putting this up for ridicule ... lol...
This is basically designed for an Australian-based website that I do a lot of stuff for ...don't panic, it all gets posted here too....
So some of it may seem pretty basic to u guys; I'm still trying to tread a little carefully with Down Under punters less experienced.
I know some people hate these kind of futures bets for various reasons - too many variables, ties up bankroll, poor odds etc.
But I've taken as many variables into account as possible, only plays (as always) 2-2.5% of my bankroll and considering I average around 60-70 wagers a week then 5 futures isn't crippling. I have also played all 5 bets at what I believe to be are odds that offer strong value.
Am very keen to get any opinions - I will be concentrating heavily on 'capping the NFL this season after a good year last season. Look forward to sharing info, thoughts and plays with the team all season long.
The 2002/03 NFL season kicks off on September 5 when the NY Giants host the San Francisco 49ers in what promises to be a hugely emotional encounter.
Lines have been set for Week One matches and over the coming weeks I will look at those games closely and see if there is an edge we can exploit for an early play or two _ keep an eye out this week for the first of these.
Pre-season games start in early August. I know many people feel betting on pre-season matches is foolish but I learnt last year that there is value to be found in certain lines if you study hard enough. I will preview each week's round of pre-season matches and expect to find a few plays that offer us some betting options each weekend.
The futures markets have been out for a while and I've spent the past fortnight looking at each team's off season moves to evaluate what they may produce in the coming season. I don't intend to place a futures bet on the Superbowl winner but have a number of plays on the "Regular Season Win Total" market that follow here:
Note: It's imperative you shop around for the best lines. These lines vary immensely from book to book and where there is value at one out there is none at another.
DENVER BRONCOS UNDER 9.5 WINS +110:
For example, this total is -130 at another book, in which case I would never play it.
The Broncos to me look to be a powerhouse franchise on a downslide. Not that they're a bad team, but I think they'll struggle to be better than a .500 side in the AFC West. The key will be the home and away matches against fellow AFC West teams Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders. I feel the Raiders may be slipping too with their veteran line-up and without Jon Gruden coaching but they have enough experience to be tough opponents for the Broncos this season. I think the Chargers will struggle to improve on their dreadful form in the 2nd half of last season but I expect the Chiefs to continue their late improvement and be a real contender to win this division.
The Broncos have a big question mark over quarterback Brian Griese _ is he good enough to take this team to the playoffs and is he capable of statying fit enough. Former Panther Steve Beuerlein is his back-up; he threw 19TDs and 18 INTs last year and takes over the back-up role from Gus Frerotte, who has joined the Bengals.
WR Ed McCaffrey will be back after missing last season with a broken leg. He will help take the pressure and double coverage of Rod Smith but may not be back to his best immediately while RB Terrell Davis had athroscopic knee surgery on May 20 and it's yet to be seen if he's capable of repeating past glories, although Shannon Sharpe is a good acquisition from the Ravens.
The Broncos aren't a bad side by any stretch of the imagination. But they look fragile and their past seasons' record indicates a team on the slide _ 14-2 in '98, 11-5 in 2000 and 8-8 in '01.
Let's look at their schedule. Home and road games v the Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers. Best case scenario? 4 wins. Likely? 3. That means they need another six wins minimum, more likely seven from the remainder. They have the Rams (h), 49ers (a), Dolphins (h), Pats (a), Seahawks (a), Jets (a) - conceivable they might only win 1 or 2 of those at best. Main hopes are home wins v Bills, Cards and Colts.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OVER 8.5 -115:
Yes, it's still hard to fathom that the Pats won the Superbowl. But those who regard the triumph as a fluke based on an easy schedule in the regular season are conveniently forgetting how they dismantled both the Steelers and Rams to win it all.
The Pats let Drew Bledsoe join the Bills to end any talk of a QB controversy and got rid of trouble-making Terry Glenn to the Pack. Their biggest moves were at TE, picking up Cam Cleeland, Christian Fauria and draft pick Daniel Graham - they will provide Tom Brady with all the short passing options he needs to excel - while ex Panthers WR Donald Hayes should offer great value in Glenn's place (6ft 4in, 59 receptions per season past 2 yrs).
They also re-signed players like defensive end Willie McGinest, linebackers Roman Phifer and Ted Johnson and RB Antowain Smith, who rushed for 1157 yds.
They won five divisional games in a row last season and the fact they were willing to give Bledsoe to an AFC East rival suggests confidence.
Best case scenario in divisional games - 5 wins. Likely? 4. Needing - another 4/5. With home games v the Chiefs, Pack, Vikes and Broncos and road games v Chargers, Bears, Lions and Titans, I don't foresee a huge post-Superbowl slump.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS UNDER 9 +160:
The price on this line is to good to be true.
Yes, Tony Dungy and Ron Meeks have to improve the defence. But can you imagine Peyton Manning getting enthusiastic about the kind of offences the Bucs had? Manning will be hoping Dungy leaves Tom Moore alone. RB Edgerrin James should be fit again but is his heart with the Colts or will Dominic Rhodes again have to perform heroics?
WR Qadry Ismail will be a good target for Bledsoe instead of Jerome Pathon but he loses TE Ken Dilger.
Six divisional games v Texans, Jags and Titans appear reasonable value; best case scenario? 5 wins. Likely? 4. Leaving them five/six more to find. The Colts would fancy the Bengals, Ravens and Cowboys at home but have to front the Steelers, Skins, Eagles, Broncos and Browns away.
Dungy will find himself short on personnel to fix the defensive problems and this is a great price for a 6-10 team last season to go 8-8.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS UNDER 7 +145:
Anyone give me a good reason why Marty Schottenheimer joined this bunch of perennial flops instead of hitting the golf course?
It looked at the start of last season that Mike Riley had turned the 1-15 memories around before the bottom dropped out again. Now the Chargers have to start with 14 - count 'em, 14! - new coaches. LaDanian Tomlinson will carry the weight again with Drew Brees likely to be given the QB reins ahead of Doug Flutie.
The Chargers will struggle to win 3, more realistically 2, v the Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs, leaving them needing 5 or 6 more to get over this number. Best chances are the Texans, Bengals and Jets at home but they meet the Rams, 49ers and Dolphins on the road. Their schedule ties the Bills for the toughest in the league - they play 10 +.500 teams from last year and teams with an overall record of 131-109 (.546) all up.
TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS OVER 9.5 +100:
A little hard to back another under-achieving team with a new coach. But Gruden has already got rid of some dead wood and will light a fire under others.
He has 3 possible starting QBs - Brad Johnson may be favoured but Rob Johnson could start if Gruden looks to the more mobile player like he had in Gannon at the Raiders.
Gone are RB Warwick Dunn, WRs Reidel Anthony and Jacquez Green, along with K Doug Brien and P Mark Royals. In come RB Michael Pittman, WRs Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius, TEs Marco Battaglia and Ken Dilger and P Tom Tupa - nice work.
Best case scenario in the weakest division in 2002/03 is 6 wins; 4/5 easily achievable; leaving them 5 or 6 from: Browns (h), Bengals (a), Vikes (h), Pack (h), Lions (a), Ravens (a), Rams (h), Steelers (h), Bears (a), Eagles (a). Can be done.
This is basically designed for an Australian-based website that I do a lot of stuff for ...don't panic, it all gets posted here too....
So some of it may seem pretty basic to u guys; I'm still trying to tread a little carefully with Down Under punters less experienced.
I know some people hate these kind of futures bets for various reasons - too many variables, ties up bankroll, poor odds etc.
But I've taken as many variables into account as possible, only plays (as always) 2-2.5% of my bankroll and considering I average around 60-70 wagers a week then 5 futures isn't crippling. I have also played all 5 bets at what I believe to be are odds that offer strong value.
Am very keen to get any opinions - I will be concentrating heavily on 'capping the NFL this season after a good year last season. Look forward to sharing info, thoughts and plays with the team all season long.
The 2002/03 NFL season kicks off on September 5 when the NY Giants host the San Francisco 49ers in what promises to be a hugely emotional encounter.
Lines have been set for Week One matches and over the coming weeks I will look at those games closely and see if there is an edge we can exploit for an early play or two _ keep an eye out this week for the first of these.
Pre-season games start in early August. I know many people feel betting on pre-season matches is foolish but I learnt last year that there is value to be found in certain lines if you study hard enough. I will preview each week's round of pre-season matches and expect to find a few plays that offer us some betting options each weekend.
The futures markets have been out for a while and I've spent the past fortnight looking at each team's off season moves to evaluate what they may produce in the coming season. I don't intend to place a futures bet on the Superbowl winner but have a number of plays on the "Regular Season Win Total" market that follow here:
Note: It's imperative you shop around for the best lines. These lines vary immensely from book to book and where there is value at one out there is none at another.
DENVER BRONCOS UNDER 9.5 WINS +110:
For example, this total is -130 at another book, in which case I would never play it.
The Broncos to me look to be a powerhouse franchise on a downslide. Not that they're a bad team, but I think they'll struggle to be better than a .500 side in the AFC West. The key will be the home and away matches against fellow AFC West teams Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders. I feel the Raiders may be slipping too with their veteran line-up and without Jon Gruden coaching but they have enough experience to be tough opponents for the Broncos this season. I think the Chargers will struggle to improve on their dreadful form in the 2nd half of last season but I expect the Chiefs to continue their late improvement and be a real contender to win this division.
The Broncos have a big question mark over quarterback Brian Griese _ is he good enough to take this team to the playoffs and is he capable of statying fit enough. Former Panther Steve Beuerlein is his back-up; he threw 19TDs and 18 INTs last year and takes over the back-up role from Gus Frerotte, who has joined the Bengals.
WR Ed McCaffrey will be back after missing last season with a broken leg. He will help take the pressure and double coverage of Rod Smith but may not be back to his best immediately while RB Terrell Davis had athroscopic knee surgery on May 20 and it's yet to be seen if he's capable of repeating past glories, although Shannon Sharpe is a good acquisition from the Ravens.
The Broncos aren't a bad side by any stretch of the imagination. But they look fragile and their past seasons' record indicates a team on the slide _ 14-2 in '98, 11-5 in 2000 and 8-8 in '01.
Let's look at their schedule. Home and road games v the Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers. Best case scenario? 4 wins. Likely? 3. That means they need another six wins minimum, more likely seven from the remainder. They have the Rams (h), 49ers (a), Dolphins (h), Pats (a), Seahawks (a), Jets (a) - conceivable they might only win 1 or 2 of those at best. Main hopes are home wins v Bills, Cards and Colts.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OVER 8.5 -115:
Yes, it's still hard to fathom that the Pats won the Superbowl. But those who regard the triumph as a fluke based on an easy schedule in the regular season are conveniently forgetting how they dismantled both the Steelers and Rams to win it all.
The Pats let Drew Bledsoe join the Bills to end any talk of a QB controversy and got rid of trouble-making Terry Glenn to the Pack. Their biggest moves were at TE, picking up Cam Cleeland, Christian Fauria and draft pick Daniel Graham - they will provide Tom Brady with all the short passing options he needs to excel - while ex Panthers WR Donald Hayes should offer great value in Glenn's place (6ft 4in, 59 receptions per season past 2 yrs).
They also re-signed players like defensive end Willie McGinest, linebackers Roman Phifer and Ted Johnson and RB Antowain Smith, who rushed for 1157 yds.
They won five divisional games in a row last season and the fact they were willing to give Bledsoe to an AFC East rival suggests confidence.
Best case scenario in divisional games - 5 wins. Likely? 4. Needing - another 4/5. With home games v the Chiefs, Pack, Vikes and Broncos and road games v Chargers, Bears, Lions and Titans, I don't foresee a huge post-Superbowl slump.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS UNDER 9 +160:
The price on this line is to good to be true.
Yes, Tony Dungy and Ron Meeks have to improve the defence. But can you imagine Peyton Manning getting enthusiastic about the kind of offences the Bucs had? Manning will be hoping Dungy leaves Tom Moore alone. RB Edgerrin James should be fit again but is his heart with the Colts or will Dominic Rhodes again have to perform heroics?
WR Qadry Ismail will be a good target for Bledsoe instead of Jerome Pathon but he loses TE Ken Dilger.
Six divisional games v Texans, Jags and Titans appear reasonable value; best case scenario? 5 wins. Likely? 4. Leaving them five/six more to find. The Colts would fancy the Bengals, Ravens and Cowboys at home but have to front the Steelers, Skins, Eagles, Broncos and Browns away.
Dungy will find himself short on personnel to fix the defensive problems and this is a great price for a 6-10 team last season to go 8-8.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS UNDER 7 +145:
Anyone give me a good reason why Marty Schottenheimer joined this bunch of perennial flops instead of hitting the golf course?
It looked at the start of last season that Mike Riley had turned the 1-15 memories around before the bottom dropped out again. Now the Chargers have to start with 14 - count 'em, 14! - new coaches. LaDanian Tomlinson will carry the weight again with Drew Brees likely to be given the QB reins ahead of Doug Flutie.
The Chargers will struggle to win 3, more realistically 2, v the Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs, leaving them needing 5 or 6 more to get over this number. Best chances are the Texans, Bengals and Jets at home but they meet the Rams, 49ers and Dolphins on the road. Their schedule ties the Bills for the toughest in the league - they play 10 +.500 teams from last year and teams with an overall record of 131-109 (.546) all up.
TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS OVER 9.5 +100:
A little hard to back another under-achieving team with a new coach. But Gruden has already got rid of some dead wood and will light a fire under others.
He has 3 possible starting QBs - Brad Johnson may be favoured but Rob Johnson could start if Gruden looks to the more mobile player like he had in Gannon at the Raiders.
Gone are RB Warwick Dunn, WRs Reidel Anthony and Jacquez Green, along with K Doug Brien and P Mark Royals. In come RB Michael Pittman, WRs Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius, TEs Marco Battaglia and Ken Dilger and P Tom Tupa - nice work.
Best case scenario in the weakest division in 2002/03 is 6 wins; 4/5 easily achievable; leaving them 5 or 6 from: Browns (h), Bengals (a), Vikes (h), Pack (h), Lions (a), Ravens (a), Rams (h), Steelers (h), Bears (a), Eagles (a). Can be done.
