NRL:
Let's have a brief look at some of the opening odds for rd 14, where we see teams play their first 'return' games of the season. And remember rd 1 - every match won by the away side!
Note: To help with my handicapping, I always set my own lines for all games before the books put theirs out. In doing so, I'm not trying to put my slant on who I think will cover; I'm simply weighing up the form and match-ups and setting a line to work from. If the lines that emerge from the books are notably different from mine (even 2-3 points can be significant) then I'll look very closely at that game as a likely play. Even if the lines are identical, I will still run the ruler over each match-up to see if my detailed homework brings up anything that may suggest value in a wager.
The Dragons open as a -6.5 favourite at home at the SFS against the Sharks. David Peachey is still out for the Sharks, who could only manage a home draw against the Tigers last weekend and are still having massive offensive problems despite shifting Preston Campbell to halfback. The Dragons - 30-6 winners in rd 1, are inconsistent but come in off the back of a convincing win over the Bulldogs and winger Jamie Ainscough returns.
The Raiders give the NZ Warriors a -9.5 start at Manuka Oval after pushing the Broncos and the Storm in recent weeks while the Warriors have been pathetic in their last 2 outings. Raiders won game 1 24-8 in NZ.
The Roosters are laying big chalk - -15.5 - at home v the Tigers, who have shown a little more fight in recent weeks. Roosters' defence has been poor lately but they get fullback Luke Phillips back after a rd 6 injury to his medial ligament finally healed. Dallas Hood is likely to miss the match with concussion while Mick Crocker will replace Simon Bonetti at hooker. The Tigers will be without second rower John Wilson (broken arm, replaced by Mark O'Neill) while Terry Hill (hamstring problem) has again been named on the bench.
The Eagles upset the Knights in rd 1 but have been mediocre since and open as a +4.5 home dog. The Knights have struggled to impose themselves without Andrew Johns but keep winning.
The impressive Eels host the Panthers, who have also shown signs of improvement in the last month but are +9.5 dogs for this trip to Parramatta Stadium. Luke Burt will make his first first-grade appearance of the year with skipper Nathan Cayless suspended. Daniel Wagon jumps into the forwards in a reshuffle for the Eels. The Panthers will be without prop Craig Greenhill with a sore back but centre Ryan Girdler is back to test out a shoulder injury for the side which was thumped 40-4 on opening night.
The Broncos are -14.5 faves to beat the Cowboys at ANZ Stadium despite being without inspirational skipper Gorden Tallis.
The Bulldogs are somewhat surprising -2.5 faves hosting the Melbourne Storm at Sydney Showgound. Storm have been on a winning tear of late under Mark Murray while the Bulldogs were roasted by the Dragons last week.
Early leans: Storm definitely have early ML and spread appeal; Tigers possibly a dog to look at? Much more later, including a look at playing totals.
Let's have a brief look at some of the opening odds for rd 14, where we see teams play their first 'return' games of the season. And remember rd 1 - every match won by the away side!
Note: To help with my handicapping, I always set my own lines for all games before the books put theirs out. In doing so, I'm not trying to put my slant on who I think will cover; I'm simply weighing up the form and match-ups and setting a line to work from. If the lines that emerge from the books are notably different from mine (even 2-3 points can be significant) then I'll look very closely at that game as a likely play. Even if the lines are identical, I will still run the ruler over each match-up to see if my detailed homework brings up anything that may suggest value in a wager.
The Dragons open as a -6.5 favourite at home at the SFS against the Sharks. David Peachey is still out for the Sharks, who could only manage a home draw against the Tigers last weekend and are still having massive offensive problems despite shifting Preston Campbell to halfback. The Dragons - 30-6 winners in rd 1, are inconsistent but come in off the back of a convincing win over the Bulldogs and winger Jamie Ainscough returns.
The Raiders give the NZ Warriors a -9.5 start at Manuka Oval after pushing the Broncos and the Storm in recent weeks while the Warriors have been pathetic in their last 2 outings. Raiders won game 1 24-8 in NZ.
The Roosters are laying big chalk - -15.5 - at home v the Tigers, who have shown a little more fight in recent weeks. Roosters' defence has been poor lately but they get fullback Luke Phillips back after a rd 6 injury to his medial ligament finally healed. Dallas Hood is likely to miss the match with concussion while Mick Crocker will replace Simon Bonetti at hooker. The Tigers will be without second rower John Wilson (broken arm, replaced by Mark O'Neill) while Terry Hill (hamstring problem) has again been named on the bench.
The Eagles upset the Knights in rd 1 but have been mediocre since and open as a +4.5 home dog. The Knights have struggled to impose themselves without Andrew Johns but keep winning.
The impressive Eels host the Panthers, who have also shown signs of improvement in the last month but are +9.5 dogs for this trip to Parramatta Stadium. Luke Burt will make his first first-grade appearance of the year with skipper Nathan Cayless suspended. Daniel Wagon jumps into the forwards in a reshuffle for the Eels. The Panthers will be without prop Craig Greenhill with a sore back but centre Ryan Girdler is back to test out a shoulder injury for the side which was thumped 40-4 on opening night.
The Broncos are -14.5 faves to beat the Cowboys at ANZ Stadium despite being without inspirational skipper Gorden Tallis.
The Bulldogs are somewhat surprising -2.5 faves hosting the Melbourne Storm at Sydney Showgound. Storm have been on a winning tear of late under Mark Murray while the Bulldogs were roasted by the Dragons last week.
Early leans: Storm definitely have early ML and spread appeal; Tigers possibly a dog to look at? Much more later, including a look at playing totals.
