NRL picks, Rd Two, Sat/Sun matches

Anders

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Game 2) Parramatta Eels v The Sharks, Parramatta Stadium, 16:00 CST.
Eels -11.5 ($1.90Aus); Sharks +11.5 ($1.90).

The Eels looked so superb in last weekend's 40-4 annihilation of the Panthers the immediate impulse is to jump upon them again. It grows more tempting when their opponents are the Sharks, who were lifeless in a 30-6 home mauling by the Dragons on opening weekend. The Sharks' spirits certainly wouldn't have been lifted by the news that their best player, winger and goakicker Mat Rogers, was ruled out for the entire season last night due to injury. All roads point to the Eels winning comfortably, but two question marks linger for me. Just how bad were the Panthers (horrendous in my opinion)? And how badly do the Sharks want to show that their season shouldn't be written off on the basis of one match? Coach John Lang was livid with the lacklustre attitude from his players against the Dragons and while it's hard to second guess motivation, I see the Sharks hurting to prove a point against their Sydney rivals. May reconsider this after watching the Roosters v Knights games which see two sides from similar week one backgrounds clash, but at this stage ...
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.

Game 3) Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers; ANZ Stadium, Brisbane, 18:00 CST.
Broncos -14.5 ($1.90 Aus); Panthers +14.5 ($1.90).

The Panthers frailties were exposed last weekend and referred to above; hence the big line margin. But the defending champion Broncos only just snuck home against a Cowboys side tipped my everyone to be a cellar-dweller all season long. The Broncos did have a number of players struck down late in the week with a mystery virus in their defence, but they also started slowly last season. Surely the Panthers can't be as bad again? They have enough playing talent but their defensive lines were abysmal. Hard work on the training field all work should have rectified that enough to make me leave this game alone.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.

Game 5) Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Colonial Stadium, Melbourne, 18:00 CST.
Storm -11.5 ($1.90Aus); Cowboys +11.5 ($1.90).

The Storm will be angry after losing first up at home to the tradesmanlike Bulldogs but have lost dangerous fullback Robbie Ross to a hamstring injury. The Cowboys should be buoyed by their showing against the Broncos but may suffer the hangover of a team who knew they let slip a great opportunity for an upset win. The visitors have a hatful of injury problems coming into this match and aren't deep in talent. But the Storm should adjust quickly to being without Ross as winger Matt Geyer moves to fullback and Aaron Moule comes into the centres with promsing Junior Langi moving tothe wing. The Cowboys covered easily at +12.5 v the Broncos; don't see them managing it this time.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY MELBOURNE STORM -11.5.
 

AussieVamp2

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Rodney Howe is also out suspended, so not sure I would be that confident about this one
 

Anders

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Cheers AV, had factored in Howe's moronic suspension - suspension was the right decision, Howe is the moron - but still like an upset Storm to deal to a weak Cowboys unit. We'll know tonight if I'm a genuis or a goober
smile.gif
 

AussieVamp2

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mistake ridden bunch last week, and thats a big line, so we will see

yes, think there are a few not too bright rugby league forwards
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Anders

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Results from y'day:

Storm 28 Cowboys 32
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Broncos 38 Panthers 22
Eels 12 Sharks 13
eek.gif


Leaves me 0-2 for the weekend
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Three games left today; one play so I'll shorten the previews on games I'm not playing.

Game 5) Canberra Raiders v The Bulldogs, Bruce Stadium, Canberra, 14:30 CST.
Raiders -2.5 ($1.90Aus); Bulldogs +2.5 ($1.90).

The Raiders cruised to an opening day win over the hapless Warriors 22-8 in NZ, while the Doggies upset the Storm in Melbourne 14-10. Yet the Storm's loss to the Cowboys last night - their 2nd home loss in six days - may give us an angle here. The Raiders weren't overly impressive against the Warriors - they lost the possession and territory stakes - but got home on the scoreboard without raising a sweat. They are strong at home, and I think they will be motivated by talk in the week that their organisation was talking with ACT Brumbies rugby back Stirling Mortlock re a possible big-money switch of codes to the Raiders. May act like a red rag to a bull to the players in the side. The Raiders picked up a very good fullback off-season in Clinton Schifcoske, who is an underrated player and good goalkicker. The Bulldogs are just a solid, no-frills football team who should hang close with most teams this year. But they will miss the goalkicking of retired superboot Darryl Halligan - his replacement Hasem El Mazri is reliable for close in but haphazard on the tougher ones. Giving the fact that the visitors don't have a lot of game-breakers, the quality of goalkickers and the home advantage, I think we have good value on a home cover over a small number.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY CANBERRA RAIDERS -2.5.

Game 7) Northern Eagles v NZ Warriors, North Power Stadium, Gosford, 14:30 CST.
Eagles -16.5 ($1.95Aus); Warriors +16.5 ($1.80).

This is a big number to cover, but the Eagles beat the Knights in Newcastle last weekend and the Warriors slumped to the Raiders at home. The Knights win over the Roosters on Friday suggests that the Eagles could be very useful, especially with Aussie test halfback Brett Kimmorley linking up with the talented back rowers in Menzies, Kosef and Muir. The Warriors actually out-did the Raiders in possession and position but made their customary handling and tackling mistakes in key areas at crucial times. If you're a punter with big balls, you might want to take the Warriors to cover the number. Not me though.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.

Game 8) St George Illawarra Dragons v Wests Tigers, Sydney Football Stadium, 16:30 CST.
Dragons -10.5 ($1.90Aus); Tigers +10.5 ($1.90).

Laying off this. Another case of a team which looked senational last week v a team which was hammered. And look what happened to Sydney Roosters and Parramatta Eels in those circumstances. Can't back the Tigers after watching them last weekend either.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
 
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