As mentioned previously, I plan to provide NRL and Super 12 previews and picks this year for anyone interested.
Week one of the NRL kicks off on Saturday (Aus time) and there are 7 matches over the weekend, so let's have an initial look.
Note: I won't have as much time at the PC/Internet as I had hoped tomorrow and the next day due to family and work commitments, so I will post initial plays here and aim to update as soon as I can get back to my station. That may mean, depending on travel times and work, I don't get to update Saturday nite (Aus time) matches like I had hoped. So be wary.
All odds are taken from Centrebet; there are other books that should take NRL action including DAS, Canbet, Olympic, Sportingbet, William Hill and the NZ TAB.
Saturday games (Aus time):
Game 1) Penrith Panthers v Parramatta Eels, Stadium Australia, 17:00 CST.
Panthers +5.5 ($1.95 Aus); Eels -5.5 ($1.85).
Parramatta, while one of the youngest teams in the NRL, are also among the brightest, led by an astute tactician in coach Brian Smith. Smith has got ex-Norths halfback Jason Taylor to take over playmaking duties from the likes of the departed Jim Dymock and Jason Smith and should be a reliable goalkicker too. David Solomona, acquired from Sydney Roosters, is an exciting ball-playing forward.
The Panthers have kept virtually the same squad that made the playoffs last season, with plenty of experience in skipper Steve Carter and John Cross and the undoubted ability of Ryan Girdler and Craig Gower.
Penrith would be very hard to beat at home but this match will be played at the neutral venue at Homebush Bay. Girdler has missed training this week with a groin injury and will undergo a late fitness test before the match - staff are optimistic he will start at centre and kick the goals.
My original line was Eels -6. Girdler's fitness sways me towards them by a converted try, but the green-ness of the side is often exposed at crucial times, making them hard to back with certainty,
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 2)North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos, Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville, 20:00 CST.
Cowboys +12.5 ($1.90); Broncos -12.5 ($1.90).
Last season's champions (Broncos) v hot favourites to finish with the wooden spoon again (Cowboys). Should be a laugher, and may well be. But we have to take into account the inter-Queensland rivalry, which will lift the Cowboys at home in their first outing of the season. The Broncos have lost Kevin and Kerrod Walters, Brad Thorn, Tonie Carroll, Kevin Campion and Ben Walker; all notable first-teamers from last year. A key gain at playmaker is the gifted Scott Prince, who has left the Cowboys.
The Cowboys have virtually no names of note, and if this match was mid-season I'd be on the Broncos. But the Cowboys will be eager to prove all critics wrong first-up and show Prince they won't miss him, At this line, we are short of value I believe.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 3) Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters, Stadium Australia, 19:00 CST.
Tigers +7.5 ($1.95); Roosters -7.5 ($1.85).
Beaten in the grand final last year, the Roosters are extra-keen to go one better in 2001. They have lost mercurial halfback Adrian Lam, classy fullback Richie Barnett and the afore-mentioned Solomona. But they picked up tradesmanlike No7 Paul Green from the Cowboys and England's Adrian Morley to boost the pack.
Wests battled away valiantly last year and have gained journeyman John Simon at halfback/standoff but lost hardman Jarrod McCracken through injury to retirement.
With the brilliant Brad Fittler and ball-playing backrower Bryan Fletcher making plays for the Roosters, Lam's absence won't be noticed much. The Roosters have pace and strength and will be out to make an early statement in the second match of the opening night double-header. There is already talk that the temperamental Tigers players, led by inconsistent playmaker Craig Field, are struggling to cope with the strict methods of coach Terry Lamb. As my original line was -10, I think we have value with the Roosters.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY SYDNEY ROSTERS -7.5.
Sunday games:
Game 4) Melbourne Storm v The Bulldogs, Colonial Stadium, Melbourne, 12.30 CST.
Storm -8.5 ($1.90), Bulldogs +8.5 ($1.90).
1999 premiers Melbourne fell short of repeating that feat last season. They are based around a big, tough forward pack but will be watched closely early season to see how they cope without lynchpin halfback Brett Kimorley, who has joined Northern Eagles. Canterbury may lose a number of points a match through the retirement of winger Darryl Halligan, the game's greatest ever goalkicker. But they have worked hard to recruit to fill a void of pacy backs and got classy finisher Nigel Vagana from the Warriors, Brett Howland from the Sharks and Luke Patton from St George.
Even though Steve Reardon will miss the opening games with a broken wrist, the Bulldogs are never easy to dominate up front. They are underdogs based on the absence of former greats Ricky Stuart and Bradley Clyde, along with Halligan, but I believe they can hang close with the Storm as they adjust to life with Matt Orford at the helm.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY BULLDOGS +8.5
I'm going to stop here. It's been a long day and I feel I would short change any readers if I continued with a briefer version. I will post the remaining three Sunday matches over the next two days - guaranteed they will be posted in time for you to play if you feel that way inclined. At this stage, I don't have a play in any of those three games, but that could change closer to game time so do keep an eye out.
This is obviously somewhat of a trial for both me and Madjacks. Thanks Jack for the opportunity. I will do my very best to provide all forum members to the best of my ability. I have bet haphazardly before on rugby league. Now, with improved money management and a vast array of handicapping advice - mostly through this board and the guru Nolan Dalla - I'm hopeful we can all have a long, enjoyable, and most importantly profitable season.
Let's make a 2001 NRL season target of 56%.
GLTA
Anders
PS - Nolan, how on earth do you manage this every day
------------------
These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 02-15-2001).]
Week one of the NRL kicks off on Saturday (Aus time) and there are 7 matches over the weekend, so let's have an initial look.
Note: I won't have as much time at the PC/Internet as I had hoped tomorrow and the next day due to family and work commitments, so I will post initial plays here and aim to update as soon as I can get back to my station. That may mean, depending on travel times and work, I don't get to update Saturday nite (Aus time) matches like I had hoped. So be wary.
All odds are taken from Centrebet; there are other books that should take NRL action including DAS, Canbet, Olympic, Sportingbet, William Hill and the NZ TAB.
Saturday games (Aus time):
Game 1) Penrith Panthers v Parramatta Eels, Stadium Australia, 17:00 CST.
Panthers +5.5 ($1.95 Aus); Eels -5.5 ($1.85).
Parramatta, while one of the youngest teams in the NRL, are also among the brightest, led by an astute tactician in coach Brian Smith. Smith has got ex-Norths halfback Jason Taylor to take over playmaking duties from the likes of the departed Jim Dymock and Jason Smith and should be a reliable goalkicker too. David Solomona, acquired from Sydney Roosters, is an exciting ball-playing forward.
The Panthers have kept virtually the same squad that made the playoffs last season, with plenty of experience in skipper Steve Carter and John Cross and the undoubted ability of Ryan Girdler and Craig Gower.
Penrith would be very hard to beat at home but this match will be played at the neutral venue at Homebush Bay. Girdler has missed training this week with a groin injury and will undergo a late fitness test before the match - staff are optimistic he will start at centre and kick the goals.
My original line was Eels -6. Girdler's fitness sways me towards them by a converted try, but the green-ness of the side is often exposed at crucial times, making them hard to back with certainty,
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 2)North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos, Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville, 20:00 CST.
Cowboys +12.5 ($1.90); Broncos -12.5 ($1.90).
Last season's champions (Broncos) v hot favourites to finish with the wooden spoon again (Cowboys). Should be a laugher, and may well be. But we have to take into account the inter-Queensland rivalry, which will lift the Cowboys at home in their first outing of the season. The Broncos have lost Kevin and Kerrod Walters, Brad Thorn, Tonie Carroll, Kevin Campion and Ben Walker; all notable first-teamers from last year. A key gain at playmaker is the gifted Scott Prince, who has left the Cowboys.
The Cowboys have virtually no names of note, and if this match was mid-season I'd be on the Broncos. But the Cowboys will be eager to prove all critics wrong first-up and show Prince they won't miss him, At this line, we are short of value I believe.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 3) Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters, Stadium Australia, 19:00 CST.
Tigers +7.5 ($1.95); Roosters -7.5 ($1.85).
Beaten in the grand final last year, the Roosters are extra-keen to go one better in 2001. They have lost mercurial halfback Adrian Lam, classy fullback Richie Barnett and the afore-mentioned Solomona. But they picked up tradesmanlike No7 Paul Green from the Cowboys and England's Adrian Morley to boost the pack.
Wests battled away valiantly last year and have gained journeyman John Simon at halfback/standoff but lost hardman Jarrod McCracken through injury to retirement.
With the brilliant Brad Fittler and ball-playing backrower Bryan Fletcher making plays for the Roosters, Lam's absence won't be noticed much. The Roosters have pace and strength and will be out to make an early statement in the second match of the opening night double-header. There is already talk that the temperamental Tigers players, led by inconsistent playmaker Craig Field, are struggling to cope with the strict methods of coach Terry Lamb. As my original line was -10, I think we have value with the Roosters.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY SYDNEY ROSTERS -7.5.
Sunday games:
Game 4) Melbourne Storm v The Bulldogs, Colonial Stadium, Melbourne, 12.30 CST.
Storm -8.5 ($1.90), Bulldogs +8.5 ($1.90).
1999 premiers Melbourne fell short of repeating that feat last season. They are based around a big, tough forward pack but will be watched closely early season to see how they cope without lynchpin halfback Brett Kimorley, who has joined Northern Eagles. Canterbury may lose a number of points a match through the retirement of winger Darryl Halligan, the game's greatest ever goalkicker. But they have worked hard to recruit to fill a void of pacy backs and got classy finisher Nigel Vagana from the Warriors, Brett Howland from the Sharks and Luke Patton from St George.
Even though Steve Reardon will miss the opening games with a broken wrist, the Bulldogs are never easy to dominate up front. They are underdogs based on the absence of former greats Ricky Stuart and Bradley Clyde, along with Halligan, but I believe they can hang close with the Storm as they adjust to life with Matt Orford at the helm.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY BULLDOGS +8.5
I'm going to stop here. It's been a long day and I feel I would short change any readers if I continued with a briefer version. I will post the remaining three Sunday matches over the next two days - guaranteed they will be posted in time for you to play if you feel that way inclined. At this stage, I don't have a play in any of those three games, but that could change closer to game time so do keep an eye out.
This is obviously somewhat of a trial for both me and Madjacks. Thanks Jack for the opportunity. I will do my very best to provide all forum members to the best of my ability. I have bet haphazardly before on rugby league. Now, with improved money management and a vast array of handicapping advice - mostly through this board and the guru Nolan Dalla - I'm hopeful we can all have a long, enjoyable, and most importantly profitable season.
Let's make a 2001 NRL season target of 56%.
GLTA
Anders
PS - Nolan, how on earth do you manage this every day
------------------
These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 02-15-2001).]
