NRL Question

[AussieVamp2]

Here's one for the NRL gurus (and speaking of missed unders)

Why is the NRL so high scoring now? (match fixing aside) Directions to referees?

Seems there was a 'phase shift' about halfway through last season - which averaged 42 points a game, to now, with the 45/46 and totals being set at the 44.5 number, not 40.5, or 46-47-48 at SportsTAB.

What changed?

I did have a theory that the very short preseason would make it lower scoring for the first few weeks, which it seemed, to, but once they had enough time in, wham.

Is it the interchange rule?

With only 14 teams presumably more 'class' in attack on each team - although a fair bit has defected to England I guess - but does more tired forwards make a difference of that much? Seeing last season had different rules, but seems it went up then at the end too?

I do not understand/follow it enough (or get it on tv - that is, if anyone on tv would tell you anything analytical) to really tell. So any of you foreigners from Queensland or NZ (if they even show it there, either

) or even sunny Canberra, any theories?

 

[Cartman88]

AV,

There are a few reasons IMO.

The new interchange rule is definately the main factor. Players are simply becoming more fatigued and you are seeing far more soft tries being let in. The talented backs (eg Campbell and Blacklock last night) find it much easier to make line breaks.

Last year with constant fresh defence coming into the match it was much harder for them.

Then there is the referees who seem to be allowing the game to flow more which sets it up for a more open style of play. Last year the referees loved to blow the whistle for any minor infringement which made the game very stop/start and defences often had the chance to regroup.

Then there is the video referee who have been given a directive to give the attacking team the benefit of the doubt if they are in two minds about a try. Across the board they are awarding tries that last year may have been disallowed.

That is my thoughts. I'm sure Anders will be able to add some more reasoning to this ....

 

[Cartman88]

Here is an interesting stat to consider.

Games played to date in 2001 - 92
Games drawn to date in 2001 - 8

Generally drawn matches pay between $26 and $34. If someone had backed every match this year to be drawn they would be up approx 140 units !!!!

 

[Anders]

Lots of good pts here guys; flat tack today so will get back to them.
Watched last nite's game in astonishment - the under looked a lock at 8-8 at the break

More on this when I gather my thoughts ... and I'm playing an under this weekend! Got a good line at the NZTAB on an under after saying 2 days ago they rarely offer them

 

[AussieVamp2]

Yeah, I noticed that Cartman, nice match fixing that would be the draw thing

 

[AussieVamp2]

8-8 at the half? that is a bit annoying then.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Look at this though - see how scoring went up in the NRL later in the year? No rule changes there, either :-

Round Home Average Away Average Total Average 
1 18.1429 13.7143 31.8571 
2 18.1429 12.7143 30.8571 
3 19.2381 14.3810 33.6190 
4 19.1071 16.0000 35.1071 
5 21.6857 15.2571 36.9429 
6 21.8810 15.7381 37.6190 
7 21.2245 15.7347 36.9592 
8 21.9286 15.6429 37.5714 
9 21.8413 15.4286 37.2698 
10 21.6000 15.4571 37.0571 
11 21.8442 15.8182 37.6623 
12 21.7500 16.2262 37.9762 
13 21.9231 15.9670 37.8901 
14 22.2143 16.0306 38.2449 
15 22.5524 16.2381 38.7905 
16 22.5714 16.2589 38.8304 
17 22.4706 16.3025 38.7731 
18 22.8175 16.2698 39.0873 
19 22.8872 16.5865 39.4737 
20 23.5000 16.5143 40.0143 
21 23.6599 16.6531 40.3129 
22 23.8831 16.7338 40.6169 
23 24.1988 16.8323 41.0311 
24 24.5476 17.0833 41.6310 
25 24.5714 17.4400 42.0114 
26 24.7033 17.4835 42.1868 
27 24.7419 17.5591 42.3011 
28 24.8298 17.4787 42.3085 
29 24.7579 17.4842 42.2421 
30 24.7016 17.4241 42.1257