NRL Rd 18

[Anders]

Storm struggled to cover the -12.5 spread

in last night's opener ... 64-0

Onto tonight...


Game 2) Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos, Marathon Stadium
Knights $1.95 ML/pick 'em

All eyes for this game will be on Newcastle halfback Andrew Johns on his return after 10 weeks out with a knee injury; especially with the Australian team to play NZ next weekend being named this weekend. What we have to consider is his impact on the spread and points total.
There are several factors to consider for this match. The line has come about from two key factors - Johns' return is expected to spark the Knights out of their recent slump which culminated in the 0-40 drubbing from the Eels in rd 17; and the Broncos (most of 'em) are backing up from playing in Origin 3.
Their record in backing up this season has not been good; 0-2 ATS (L v Eels 12-28 and D v Raiders 26-26). Hard to pick the Knights after recent showings even with Joey back though.
I believe the play here is on the Over. While Brisbane are one of the few sides to show up consistently on defence in the NRL, that Origin workload is taking its toll. We've already seen them concede 28 and 26 points respectively in their previous "backing-up" matches. Work in with that their Missed Tackle rate in the last three games - 31, 34 and 35 - with two of those matches v the lowly Panthers and Tigers.
There's no doubting their offensive prowess - avg 33.8 pts for in their last four outings - but the taxing programme may be taking its toll on tackling. The Knights have conceded 86 pts in their last 2 games.
With Johns back, their offensive capablilities increase nearly two-fold. The line for the over/under is 47.5 (NSW TAB), which still represents some value. I'll lay the chalk at Centrebet instead to win one unit.
PLAY OVER 44.5
GLTA

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 07-06-2001).]

 

[turtle]

Anders, thought you may be interested,Canbet has the line on that game at 44.5 and paying -111 (1.90) looks good to me.

 

[Anders]

Cheers very muchly Turtle

Don't have an a/c @ Canbet but this would make it a very strong play; off to have a look-see and maybe send a few $ their way..

Great to see a fellow Kiwi poke his neck in here

and congrats on the golf win; DTB speaks volumes of ya and your prowess and reputation proceeds ya...

Where in Levin do you hail from - my grandparents used to live in Karaka Cres; many happy childhood memories

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 07-05-2001).]

 

[Anders]

Well that was pretty painless - what's one more book

Love the bit about Canbet needing valid ID for withdrawls; not too fussed about deposit side of things tho ...

Game Six) Sydney Roosters v Northern Eagles, SFS
Roosters -9.5

This game doesn't kick off until Sunday but it's one I will wager now, with a play on both side and total.
I don't doubt that the Roosters are the better side. But they have run hot and cold all season. No better exemplified than in recent weeks - a win on the road at Marathon v the table-toppers, a 50-24 romp v the Cowboys, then they seem set to run riot over a 13-fit Raiders only to get whacked in the second half.
The Eagles can't avoid playing heart-stoppers - their last 4 rds have seen three 2-pt games, with them collapsing in the second half twice v the Warriors and the Bulldogs. Their defence is a big problem but they have reached 30 pts in each of their last four outings.
Statistically, there is very little between these two teams over the past 10 rds. Each have a Completion Rate of 69%, with 6 Line Breaks apiece. Roosters actually miss more tackles (27 to 25) but off-load more (21 to 16).
So a hedge is in order for a number of reasons. Expect Brett Kimmorley to fire with selection/non-selection for the national side a huge focus this weekend, with the team to be named soon after this game. The Roosters aren't at full strength in their backline, with Todd Byrne and Trent Clayton in while Craig Wing will start at hooker.
The Roosters are 7-9-1 ATS this season, and just 2-6 as a home fave. In contrast, the Eagles are a surprising 10-6 ATS and 5-2 as a road dog. Their numbers have been pretty solid in recent weeks - Comp Rates of 82%, 73%, 84% and 95% - and they could be in this for a long time as the points mount.
PLAY OVER 51.5
PLAY EAGLES +9.5

 

[Anders]

Game 4) NZ Warriors v Parramatta Eels, Ericsson Stadium
Warriors +7.5

Another total in this one - beats trying to pick a side in a Warriors game!
The Eels are undeniably the hottest team around and have earnt their place as title favourites. And while running up some big wins of late, the thing that still impresses me most is their D. They held the Knights to a blank in the last rd and have concede just 18 pts in their last three matches, making the over/under 0-3 despite scoring 104 pts in those 3 games.
The Warriors have struggled to find the tryline recently - just 19.5 pts for average in their last four games as Motu Tony tries to find the balance between his undeniable individual talent and the ability to help Stacey Jones spark the backline. The defence has been patchy but their better efforts on defense usually seem to come at home.
With the prospect of showers/rain and a 50kmh wind in Auckland tomorrow night, the under becomes a value play.
PLAY UNDER 48.5 PTS


May have one more totals play for a Sunday game after a bit more homework.
Good luck to everyone this weekend.



[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 07-05-2001).]

 

[turtle]

Anders I am only a few minutes walk from Karaka Cres.
I see you have got a canbet account now very good book for NBA and NFL as they have 1.93 lines.
GL
turtle

 

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

When I checked out the NRL matches earlier in the week nothing really stood out. After doing a bit more study I have now decided to back the following:

Brisbane $1.95
Parra/NZ Under 46 $1.90 (thanks for the weather forecast Anders)

 

[Anders]

Hard to know whether to laugh or cry when you play Over 44.5 and one team scored 44 points and you still lose your wager

For those who haven't seen last night's result:
Newcastle Knights 44 Brisbane Broncos 0

Ultimately, all it stands for is an L, so I'll move on....

 

[AussieVamp2]

Anders, the id stuff pretty standard for that sort of stuff, bank accounts, etc.

NZ Tab I think was even worse when I looked at it, and still have not put any money in there

 

[djv]

We now have two from the Zealand part of the world. 44 to 0 Just breaks your heart. I have seen it before. So as you said. Turn the page. I like the chapter M J let us have a peek at. You drew a picure in my mind of many things, with your words. Believe that is what should happen.

 

[AzRusty]

Yes, Anders....

Enjoyed reading the chapter of your book today.

It inspired me to leave an hour early to work and see how far I could drive with my eyes closed. Got half way there ( 7 miles of a 15 mile trip).. when I heard the screeching of rubber, a train and a siren.

Upon opening my eyes I saw the motorcycle officer pulling me over just in time to avoid the train at the crossing.

He said what the hell are you doing sir?

I just looked surprised and said.

My Dog! Has anyone seen my dog? He was supposed to tell me when to make my turns.

The officer just looked at me like I was nuts. I am. And said I'm letting you off with a warning this time. Driving too slow and failure to stay in your own lane.

Then he said ok Mister. Follow me to Dunkin Donuts. You need some coffee and so do I.
You're buying.

AzRusty

 

[Whale]

No loss on not putting money in the NZTAB Aussievamp!

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Anders!

Fly like an Eagle!

Later.

 

[Anders]

Cheers Chucky - nice finish to the weekend; hope you're still winning mate.

Rusty - LMAO, glad u enjoyed it. On hol this week so may have a bit more time and energy to dictate to the story; keep an eye out for Chapter Two.

And Whale sure ain't wrong about no tears over no TAB a/c - possibly the worst book ever for punters

 

[Whale]

Lets not be too harsh on the NZTAB, a few other books are fighting for the worst sportsbook award!