NRL Rd 20

[Anders]

Just kicking things off with a few bits and bobs...

Lines:

Storm +4.5/5.5 v Eels
Sharks -9.5/11.5 v Eagles
Panthers +4.5/5.5 v Roosters
Cowboys +8.5/9.5 v Dragons
Raiders v Tigers no spread yet
Warriors +5.5/6.5 v Knights
Broncos -8.5/9.5 v Bulldogs

Initial Thoughts:

Leans towards the Eels, Roosters and maybe the Sharks and Raiders. Eels bounced back to true form last weekend and Storm have been patchy; may be a good hedge opp here with the over.

Sharks have been highly impressive of late and with Rogers coming back soon and Matthew Johns signing for next year, the club is on a high. Eagles should concede a few but they can score too; expecting at least 52.5 as a total.

I think the Roosters could be in a good spot on the road v the Panthers, who must have just about given up the ghost for the season. Will include the correct stat in my write-up after I check details at home but from memory I believe the Panthers are something incredible like 4-15 ATS this season

So +4.5 seems to over-rate them still.

Waiting for NSW SportsTab totals but looking at the following - Storm/Eels over, Raiders/Tigers under, Warriors/Knights under and Sharks/Eagles over.

I've been plowing thru Season to Date results to update how I've gone in Totals and Sides. Here's the stats..

Overall: 40-31 (56.34%)
Sides: 31-25 (55.36%)
Totals: 9-6 (60.00%)

Breaking down further ...

Totals:
Over: 3-2 (60.00%)
Under: 6-4 (60.00%)

Sides:
Home Fave: 9-10 (47.37%)
Home Dog: 0-2 (0%)
Road Fave: 9-5 (64.29%)
Road Dog: 13-8 (61.91%)

Moral of the story - don't be afraid to back the road team

Will provide "cover" stats for the league overall when I get a chance.

Back tomorrow with previews and plays

 

[Anders]

Here goes...

Game One) Melbourne Storm v Parramatta Eels, Colonial Stadium
Storm +4.5

This game will be the first time the Storm (10-9 ATS) have played the role of home dogs this season. But given the outstanding form of the Eels over the past 12 rounds, it's understandable.
The Storm have been very inconsistent of late. They've won their last two home matches at Colonial; jumping out in the first half and holding on v the Dragons and then absolutley demolishing the Tigers, But those games have been interspersed by 40-pt thumpings from the Sharks and the Knights on the road. Their Completion Rate has dropped of late - 66% (

not that it mattered) v the Tigers, just 57% v the Knights. Hard to judge Missed Tackles when the recorded stats have been clearly wrong a couple of times recently - 5 MT v Knights???

Sure!!! But they've been in double figures (avg 13.25) for errors in the last 4 rds.
The Eels, in comparison, blitzed both the Sharks and Knights (albeit at home) inrecent rounds with impressive stats - 57% possession, 88% CR v Sharks; 59% possession, 86% CR v Knights. Add in 50% possession/83% CR in a road win v the Broncos to those numbers. The one shocker they had was in rd 18 in the away loss to the Warriors.
But they bounced back strongly last weekend over the injury-hit Raiders, showing much more life two days after test commitments than the Storm did v the Knights. The Eels made 15 errors v the Warriors but their other three games of late have seen just 7, 8 and 8 mistakes.
While the Storm desperately seek a victory to stay in the playoff hunt, the Eels will also have plenty of incentive here. With the Broncos up against the Bulldogs on Sunday, this match offers them a great opportunity to gain a jump on the chasers for the minor premiership crown and the best seat in the playoffs.
The speed out wide of both teams should even out, but the Eels should have a decided edge up front. The Storm are powerful but lack the pace and athleticism of the visitors, who through the likes of the Hindmarsh brothers, Nathan Cayless, Michael Vella and Andrew Ryan, will put tremendous pressure on the hosts.
I also believe Jason Taylor is within spitting distance of breaking Daryl Halligan's points record so his team-mates will be primed to give the Chandler Bing lookalike

every opportunity to kick for goal.
PLAY PARRAMATTA EELS -4.5

GLTA

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Thanks for the good reports and write-ups Anders. I'm learning more and more from you abd others on this board.

Anyone been betting the World Cup qualifiers? Anyone else have action on Peru and Mexico or Paraguay and Brasil, yesterday?

Curious to know if we can gain an edge in these matches, or should we pass.

Nolan Dalla

 

[AzRusty]

I was on the under 2 1/2 on the Brazil game yesterday. Looked promising until the last thirty seconds.

I actually caught it on Galavision. Spanish cable. Saw last half only.

And watched with anticipation as my hopes were dashed in the last thirty seconds. There went about five parlays.

AzRusty

[This message has been edited by AzRusty (edited 07-19-2001).]

[This message has been edited by AzRusty (edited 07-19-2001).]

 

[Cartman88]

I have had a reasonable look at the NRL games this weekend and can't really find any value. I expect all the favoured teams to win but not with enough confidence to back them at the spread.

I do have a slight edge on a couple of totals with Canbet but I am still undecided whether I will back these myself.

Under 52.5 pts Parramatta vs Melbourne
Under 52 pts Sharks vs Nthn Eagles
Under 50 pts Newcastle vs Warriors (even better if raining)

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Question: What's the better bet in your opinion? Parramatta Eels laying the chalk of -5.5, or the UNDER 52.5 in that game?

Anders makes a good case for the Eels, but Cartman likes the UNDER. Is there any value in a hedge betting here? Also, how much (in terms of points) is the average home field worth? 3 points? 4 points? I see the game is in Melbourne, and Anders likes the chalk roadie.

Thanks for the advice.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Anders]

Hi Nolan; really glad to see you in here...will try and help out with the soccer once I get a decent chance to study the form too.

Re tonight's game - I can see Cartman's reasoning in playing the under at 52.5. I think it's mostly based on the Eels' standing as a very fine, well-organised defensive side. The Storm are much more up and down on that front while both teams have plenty of offensive ammunition.
My initial thoughts on the total was an Over if I could find a line around 48.5. This was based upon the Eels showing a tendency over their last 3 encounters of missing more tackles than they had in the previous half-dozen rounds. (I've just popped into work to check my mail etc and don't have the stats with me but can add them from home if anyone wants them).
However, that may have come about in no minor way through fatigue in backing up from an intensive representative programme of State of Origin and test football. It's likely coach Brian Smith has worked hard on their defence in the past week to get it up to their usual high standard.
I'm going to sit on the total in this one. A hedge? Hmmm, tough call. See this ending up somewhere near 28-22 but could be miles out

I really like the under in the Warriors/Knights match at present; will add sat analysis and plays later tonite NZ time.

GL

 

[Anders]

www.nrl.com.au has live scores and stats from past games for reference material, as does www.infosports.com.au

 

[Cartman88]

Nolan,

Good to see you taking an interest in some of the Down Under footy.

I personally think that under 52.5 play is the better option on this game. I thought the total would be about 48.5 so the edge is enough to consider this good value.

Anders mentioned above that coach Brian Smith has really focused on defence in the buildup to this match, and I expect that will be evident during the game.

There is nothing wrong with Parramatta -4.5 either. They are on top of the ladder and I have been impressed with them all year. They are beating some good teams by big margins. I do have respect for Melbourne playing at home and that is probably the main reason I am sticking with the total.

I am generally not a fan of hedging sides/totals in NRL (although there is always exceptions to the rule).

Also wanted to say thanks for all your great work on the MLB. I really don't know that much about the sport but your selections have steered me in the right direction on many occasions.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Anders and Cartman (and others):

Thanks for the kind words, but the key here is to learn from each other. I do not have that much experience with the Australian leagues, but do recognize that there is probably a preponderance of BAD LINES out there on these games, since the offshores have trouble keeping up with the developments and the flow of money isn't as high in proportion to other sports. Many years ago (back in the 80s) I did a bit of bartending (barkeeper -- the Aussies called it) in an Australian-themed bar, it was called the Outback Pub. We had all of the Sydney Swans games on satellite. Naturally I took a betting interest in the games by fading all the Swans' action and got my a** kicked when they went on a tear. So, I guess it would be nice to get some advice here and get some of that money back.

Thanks again to all.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Anders]

Game Two) Sharks v Northern Eagles, Toyota Pk
Sharks -9.5

The home side is experiencing a purple patch at present. Spurred by the return of inspirational skipper/fullback David Peachey and the continued emergence of Preston Campbell, who has adjusted well to the demands of his new role at halfback, the Sharks are on a serious roll. Over the past month, they have won their last four matches by the respective margins - rd 16, 14pts; rd17, 22pts; rd 18, 30pts and rd 19, 32 pts. While Peachey's impact has been notable, they have also been helped by the return of Chris McKenna in the centres and Nick Graham in the forwards. They have dominated possession in those last 4 games, made 35 Line Breaks in their last three outings while missing just 21, 22 and 16 tackles respectively.
The Eagles have had a rough week, with news breaking that the club was on the verge of bankruptcy bound to have an effect on the players. They may want to show this weekend what they're worth on the market but they may also struggle to find motivation for the club - a tough intangible to judge, this one. The Eagles have reasonable form of late, with two wins and two losses and are 12-7 ATS for the year - most notably 7-2 ATS as a road dog while the Sharks are 3-5 as a home fave! But current form indicates those stats may not count for much tomorrow. The Sharks are also bolstered by the news star winger/fullback Mat Rogers should be back next week in his farewell season to league (before switching to union next year) after recovering from a long-term shoulder injury and the signing of Matthew Johns from Wigan for the next two seasons as Adam Dykes' replacement.
There is a good opportunity for a hedge play in this match. For the Eagles to cover, they will need to score well - the Sharks have averaged nearly 40 points for in their last three games while only conceding 11 per game. Offence is the Eagles key weapon - 30 pts per game in the last 4, but defence is nowhere near as prominent - 25 pts against in the last 4: Missed Tackles (in the last 3 games with reliable stats are 32, 29 and 39. The visitors have a fine halves combination in Ben Waker (an excellent goalkicker, over 80% success rate in 2001) and Brett Kimmorley but without rampaging young prop Mark O'Meley and an outside back department that doesn't match up well to Peachey, McKenna and Colin Best et al, they may be playing catch-up a lot.
PLAY SHARKS -9.5
PLAY OVER 49.5

Game Three) Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters, Penrith FS
Panthers +4.5

Have the hapless Panthers been over-rated this season? How does 4-15 ATS sound!! And yet this will be only the fourth time in 11 games that they've been a home dog. Why? Search me. But this line should be +7.5 or so, despite some lacklustre recent form from the visitors (who don't exactly have to travel far!).
Let's look at the Panthers' recent run. Rd 19 - L 42-10 v Sharks, Rd 18 - L 40-14 v Bulldogs, Rd 17 - L 26-20 v Cowboys, Rd 16 - L 32-22 Eagles. Not flash. Have they given up the ghost for 2001? Maybe. Even if they are fully comitted they'd be hard to back - just 35% and 45% possession respectively in their last two encounters, 31 errors in total in those two games, 68 MT, 57% and 45% Completion Rate (CR).
The Roosters have been struggling, especially by their high expectations. They've lost their last three - v the Bulldogs, Eagles and Raiders and have also suffered through MT - 29 per game in the last three outings. Halfback Paul Green misses this match through injury with reserve grader Sam Obst making his NRL debut in place of the Queensland Origin rep. Surprisingly, Brad Fittler stays at lock but Craig Wing comes in at standoff - Chris Flannery had the job last weekend - and he has the individual brilliance capable of sparking the Roosters, who desperately need to get their playoff campaign back on track. Hard to imagine a side could be 4-16 ATS after 20 rounds but that's what I'll take a shot at.
PLAY ROOSTERS -4.5

Have two plays likely for Sunday (Down Under) time.

GLTA

 

[proline]

HEEEEEEEEE'S BACK.
Anders nice to wake up and see an easy win.
I know I like the $$$ more but the prose which is included with the picks is an added bonus.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

hey GUYZ...!!!

i didn't now about australian N.R.L!!!!!
just did about 30 minutes research!!!!

WOW!!!
another avenue for betting opened...!!!

i might start parlaying three to four sports after this!!!!

holey sh+t!!!!!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

I'm gonna parlay....moneylines...

dragons
knights
roosters
sharks

100 gets $373

 

[Anders]

Sunday's games...

Game 5) Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers, Bruce Stadium
Raiders -8.5

Very hard to play an under with a lot of confidence when it includes teams that missed 74 tackles between them last week. But some deep digging makes me believe there is some value in doing so here.
The Tigers are inconsistent defensively - conceding just 16 v the Warriors away in rd 16 and 18 (8 of which came in the last 5 mins) v the Cowboys last weekend but also conceding 64 v the Storm on the road in rd 18 and 44 v the Broncos. The Raiders have gone for 50 last week v the Eels and 44 the previous rd v the Dragons. But those are two on-form sides and they had strong efforts in rds17 and 16 (22 and 26 against v Roosters and Sharks respectively).
What encourages me towards value is some anaemic offence from both clubs. The Tigers are deadly dull in their approach - hit it up int he forwards and then kick. They have few genuine linebreakers - if any - and they average just 13 pts for per game over their past four outings. The Raiders have also struggled in that area - just 19.5 per game in the last four as injuries have robbed them of a number of attacking weapons.
Expect a cautious safety-first approach from both teams.
PLAY UNDER 50.5

Game 6) NZ Warriors v Newcastle Knights, Ericsson Stadium
Warriors +6.5

Just a relatively brief over-view of this one, which is a play on the total.
The Knights have been re-born late in the season with the return of Andrew Johns, hitting over 40 points in their last two matches v the Storm and Broncos. Both matches were at home however - the two previous road matches (albeit without Johns) saw them score 0 and 18 points v the Eels and Bulldogs.
The Warriors were hammered by the Broncos away last Saturday 48-12 two days after more than half the side was involved in the test against Australia. They will have appreciated the week to get bodies back into shape and after a 29-18 win over the Eels when last at Ericsson, ready for a much stronger effort. Their last two home games have gone under the number (16-21 v Tigers in rd 16) as they usually put in a far more committed defensive effort in front of the home fans. However, they have struggled to register many points recently - averaging 19 pts for in their last four games. The main reason for this appears to be a slump in the form of halfback Stacey Jones, who pulls almost all the strings for the Warriors. It may also be young, inexperienced players like standoff Motu Tony, wingers Henry Fafili and Francis Meli and centre Clinton Toopi are now struggling with the demands of a full NRL season and opponents have studied their game and worked out ways to negate their strengths.
If Johns gets the Knights rolling again they will be hard to stop. But the Warriors are desperate to not let a sight of the playoffs slip away here and should throw everything into trying to do so. With a cool day offering the possibility of some showers, I'm going to ...
PLAY UNDER 52

GLTA

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

ANDERS, you were right about don't be afriad to back the road dog...

ouch....got bit last nite.by the cowboys and the panthers....

have to find a website that has an ATS sheet...
you guys know of any?
any help would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Anders]

Couple of points to note for the NRL rookie TV...

We're not called Down Under for nothing

In Aus and NZ, we list the home side first - always seem to make far more sense than your cockeyed North American system

- so the Panthers and Cowboys were home doggies.
Secondly, there are no websites with ATS records - something of much discussion in this forum at various times. However, I have been tracking them all season and can give you a rundown if you want to get my e-mail address from Jack.
I would normally list them here for all to see but seeing I think bookies offer a few bad lines as they're unaware of "who covers" as well as they should be. Call me paranoid - cue great Black Sabbath song

- but that's the way I see it.

GL

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 07-21-2001).]

 

[djv]

Anders your smart like a fox. Just as in cards. Hold-em close.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

yeah, i knew there was something weird about the way they posted the games in the order of home and away...

thnx for the tip ANDERS.

yeah, i'll e-mail JACK to see if I can get your addy...

[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 07-22-2001).]

 

[Anders]

Tidy weekend overall, 4-2, details in the "Weekend Wrap"...