NRL Rd 21 :

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

now, just so that I DON'T screw up again like last week and get the home/road team mixed up.

sharks, bulldogs ,eagles ,panthers,
raiders,cowboys and broncos are the HOME teams?

thnx for the responses.

 

[Anders]

You screwed up

Those are your away/road teams.

Home teams listed first DU style:

Roosters v Sharks (Fri)
Warriors v Bulldogs (Sat)
Tigers v Eagles (Sat)
Dragons v Panthers (Sat)
Knights v Raiders (Sun)
Eels v Cowboys (Sun)
Storm v Broncos (Sun)

All times DU times

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

FAWK!!!!!
BLOODY HELL!!!

I'm glad i've checked with you guys first!!!

this is damned confusing...!!!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

ok, ok ...on the NRL.au website...the HOME teams are listed first...

home teams listed first..
home teams listed first....


right.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

early leans on the moneyline:


liking EELS @home against the cowboys

liking the bulldogs on the road against the warriors.

 

[Anders]

TV - eels as short as gary coleman v the cowboys; doggies have an absolutely outstanding road record and would probably be a play for me if it wasn't the Warriors involved

No plays or previews yet but a few definite leans - big homework nite coming up, will be burning the Midnite Oil ...oh, the power and the passion ..

I see SportsTAB is offering some very tempting Overs - only one game listed at more than 50.5 total points

I see rain is forecast for the weekend; can my Anzac mates give me a running update on this??

Otherwise, it's mouthwatering when you have a game involving the Eagles at 48.5

These are all thoughts without my overwhelming and extremely hefty folder of facts at hand.

But consider these numbers of the top of my head-ish :
Over/Under in the past four rds - 18-10
Avg pts - Rd 17 - 52.9; Rd 18 - 52.1; Rd 19 - 53.4; Rd 20 - 56

Keen on all input

 

[Whale]

I did mention the over thing a few rounds back, just find the lowest total and bet over (so long as no rain), no handicapping needed, easy money. I have it at about 19-9 last four with a couple of middles to boot. Scoring should keep at this rate + even higher till the end of the season, just keep pounding them overs.

The totals on many of these games should be at about 56+, some of the lines are way bad

 

[Anders]

Believe it's rain in Sydney tonight, can anyone confirm. Still keen on the over play...

 

[Anders]

Game One)

* Updated; thanks to Whale for the great heads-up on the total

Sydney Roosters v Sharks, Sydney Football Stadium
Roosters pick 'em

The magic number for us here is 21 points for the Sharks. I'm going to hedge the in-form side with the over.
The Sharks have been outstanding of late, winning their last five games with ridiculous ease. The Roosters, in contrast, have been awful - 0-4 since a 50-24 win over the Cowboys at home in rd 16. Initial thought was that the Sharks had it easy - playing Raiders, Storm, Cowboys, Panthers and Eagles - which they have. But look at the Roosters' last five opponents - Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, Bulldogs, Panthers - just the difference between the Dogs and the Storm.
And look at the averages - Sharks 39.5 pts for in the last 4, just 13 against; Roosters 18.5 for, 33 against. Roosters have been living on a completion rate average of around 70%, which just isn't good enough, especially given they miss at least 25 tackles a game on average. Sharks have been closer to 76% and missed tackles have been down around the 20-mark, although they missed 30 last week - against an Eagles team that does have some offensive capabilities.
No problems with the ATS records - not that it's much of a road game for the fellow Sydneysiders in the Sharks. They're 7-3 ATS away this season, Roosters a miserable 2-7 ATS at home.
Brad Fittler returns to standoff for the Roosters with Luke Ricketson back from injury at lock, but Fittler will have to form a new combination with rookie halfback Sam Obst (just his second start with Paul Green out injured).
Sharks have to wait another week on Mat Rogers but are otherwise picking from a first-choice squad. I fancy the big Sharks forwards to test the less mobile Roosters pack, and there should be plenty of gaps opening up, particularly in the second half, for the likes of the mercurial duo of Preston Campbell and David Peachey.
The Roosters are desperate for a win to keep their fading season's hopes of the premiership alive. But their defence is so poor for a seemingly top side, they will have to rely on scoring plenty to win this.
The number 21 is crucial to the hedge play - if the Sharks score at least 21, we can't lose both bets. Given that they've scored 40, 42, 36 and 40 in their last four outings, we have good reason to wager that they can reach that mark again.
PLAY SHARKS ML/PK 'EM
PLAY OVER 42

GLTA

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 07-27-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 07-27-2001).]

 

[Whale]

Damn good write up as usual Anders

Just to let you know 46 is available at canbet and over 44.5 @ 2.05 at centerbet, two much better numbers obviously.

Sportstab 47.5 over @ 2.05 under @ 1.65

A very good middle
Under 47.5 @ 1.65 and
Over 44.5 @ 2.05

3 points spanning a key total number, 8 games thus far have fallen on 45,46,47 this season. 4 of which have been middles.

Rain is forecast for tonight (but it is not raining yet), which would explain the money coming in on the under.


[This message has been edited by Whale (edited 07-27-2001).]

 

[Whale]

42 at canbet now.. doesn't take much to move their numbers.. !

 

[Anders]

Been trying to edit my other post, not sure if it's worked ...

Thanks Whale for the great info; been at home with limited PC access, haven't been able to track totals.

Definitely a strong play now, even allowing for rain ... also makes the hedge stronger, don't rate the Roosters in the wet at all

Repeating...

PLAY SHARKS ML/PK 'EM
PLAY OVER 42

GLTA

Here comes kickoff...

 

[Anders]

split the wager ... Sharks 22 Roosters 14.

The hedge looked very good at halftime with the Sharks up 20-6.

But they got a little conservative in the 2nd half protecting their lead - opted to kick for goal a couple of times rather than attempt another try - the slippery conditions did cause problems with handling and Roosters were pretty uninspiring...

So the line movement was right with the total; funny thing was that when it was pissing down in the 1st half we got 26 pts; when it had stopped in the 2nd just 10

For those without "totals" books, the result was rarely in doubt despite the Roosters scoring early. Sharks forwards hit the ball up well, making plenty of yards, and showed very good ball control.
Behind them, standoff Adam Dykes is in good form while Peachey and Campbell were at their mercurial best.

If any of you in the US don't get a chance to see this stuff, you're missing a little champion in the wee Aborigine, Preston Campbell.

He's approx 70kg dripping wet - which he was last nite

- and makes Tattoo look like Shaq (ok, exaggerating a little

) but has magnificent ball-playing skills, pace, step, a big heart ... he's Down Under's Allan Iverson

Back with today's plays in an hour or two...

 

[Anders]

Three plays for today...

Game Two)

NZ Warriors v Bulldogs, Ericsson Stadium
Warriors +5.5

No problems with the weather effecting the total here; should be fine if a little cool in Auckland tonight.
The Bulldogs have emerged in recent rounds as a genuine title contender, despite doubts over their class. They've won their last five and beaten the Knights, Roosters and Broncos among that run and have been chalking up big totals in doing so. Their last five games have seen 299 points scored at an average of 59.8 per game and the Doggies average 38 per game "for".
The Warriors have seen a relatively solid defence fade in recent weeks. They conceded 48 v the Broncos when backing up two days after a test and didn't seem to have fully recovered when beaten 37-30 by the Knights last Sunday - the Warriors missed a number of crucial spot tackles.
The Bulldogs have had good defensive showings against the likes of the Panthers, Eagles and Roosters but missed 35 tackles in the win v the Broncos and are prone to some lapses.
When these two sides met in Wellington earlier this season, they drew 24-all after the Bulldogs squandered a substantial lead very late.
For those not plagued by the Warriors curse, I'd have a strong lean to the Bulldogs covering - you can get +4.5 and the Dogs are road warriors; 8-2 ATS this season.
But I believe the best bet is on the total.
Adding: A reshuffle of the Warriors backline, with fullback Ivan Cleary out and the suspect Clinton Toopi shifting to the No 1 shirt should aid this play.
PLAY OVER 49.5

Game Three)

Wests Tigers v Northern Eagles, Leichardt Oval
Tigers $2 ML/pick 'em

The troubled Eagles may or may not have a future as a club, but they still have one in the 2001 season. Last night's loss by the Roosters has kept tonight's visitors well in the playoff hunt. The Tigers may entertain some slim hopes of also making the top eight after winning their past two but it's unlikely they can close the gap.
The Eagles have lost the last two against the Sharks (18-40) and the Dragons (18-28) after three consecutive wins. Against the Sharks they were poor (56% Completion Rate, 33 Missed Tackles) but prior to that they have been quite sound - averaging a CR of 80% over their last 7 games.
The Tigers are steady yet unspectacular - around 70% CR, but they've missed an average 35 tackles per game in their last four matches. While they've kept the lowly Panthers and Raiders relatively quiet defensively, the Storm (64-0) and the Broncos (44-10) found them a soft touch.
The Eagles have seen 56 points per game scored in their last four outings, the Tigers 51.5.
The Tigers are generally regarded as a tough nut to crack at home but it's a theory that doesn't lend itself to the current season. With the merger between West and Balmain, those clubs respective home fans have failed to warm to the new side, who could also be worried about their future. They are 3-7 ATS at home this season while the Eagles, who have similar home problems following their merger, are a useful 7-4 ATS on the road.
When these two teams met in rd 8, the Eagles triumphed 38-22 as their backs made mincemeat of the Tigers defence. With Brett Kimmorley and Ben Walker pulling the strings and top young prop Mark O'Meley back, the Eagles will be hard to stop again.
The Tigers will know they must score to beat the visitors. With Owen Craigie taking over at standoff in place of John Simon, the Tigers will look to his more off-the-cuff approach to spark them, which should help this game go over.
* Cool with showers is the forecast for Sydney tonight. If the weather is worse than that, I would recommend staying away from the over. I will try my best to update this but it may not be possible given my commitments today so it will pay you to do your homework.

PLAY EAGLES PK 'EM
PLAY OVER 46.5

GLTA

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

after looking at your stats

putting a small wager on the EAGLES as well...

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

NRL last week : 3-2 ( 60%)

MONEYLINES:

eels
dragons
eagles

 

[Anders]

Game Seven)

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos, Colonial Stadium
Storm -4.5

Let's make no bones about it; the Broncos should bounce back sharply from last weekend's upset loss to the Bulldogs at home.
Although Melbourne isn't an easy place to win at and the Broncos aren't the normally all-conquering side on the road that they are in Queensland, Wayne Bennett's men should be primed for a big performance here.
They seemed set to dispel the challenge of the Bulldogs pretenders when they jumped out to a 12-0 lead before the Doggies scored 37 points in succession. A late Broncos reply came after the horse had bolted.
From that encounter, Bennett would have focussed amost entirely this week on defence - the Broncos also conceded 44 pts in Rd 18 v the Knights; most un-Brisbane like. Expect them to be much tighter against a home team with size up front and pace out wide.
The Storm have run hot and cold - a demolition job over the Tigers was followed by two thumpings v the Knights (away) and the Eels (home). Their defence has been notably shaky - 50 Missed Tackles in a beating by the Sharks in Rd 17, even 22 v the Tigers, and a horrendous 54 v the Eels.
Their error rate has also climbed alarmingly since a strong showing through rounds 11-15 - 14 per game over the past five rounds.
They have badly missed standoff Scott Hill, who ran the cutter during a promising mid-season run, although the decision to drop Tasesa Lavea infavour of makeshift first-five Matt Geyer makes little sense. A lot will be required from props Rodney Howe and Robbie Kearns and second-rower Stephen Kearney if the Storm are to take the game to the visitors.
But the Broncos are easily capable of winning that match-up - Shane Webcke and Petero Civinoceva are a ferocious pair of props while the mobility and speed of young bucks Ashley Harrison, Bradley Meyers and in particular the highly impressive Dane Carlaw have helped the Broncos fans foget (asbest they can) about the enforced absence of Gorden Tallis.
Kevin Walters at halfback should direct the traffic for the likes of Darren Lockyer, Lote Tuqiri, Wendell Sailor and Chris Walker to cut loose.
While the Broncos are 2-4 ATS as a road chalk, the Storm are an unconvincing 4-6 ATS at home (0-1 as a home dog following the loss to the Eels) and the small number is value for a wounded defending champion.
PLAY BRONCOS -4.5

GLTA

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

after posting a 1-3 weekend, i'm laying off doin ALOT of NRL picks because of :

1) lack of personal stats ( no offense Anders, but this NRL is trickier than other sports...and i HATE pointspreads!! )

2) I'm killing in AFL,and doing well in MLB so i don't want anything to eat into my profits even SLIGHTLY.

might keep it to two picks a week.
record in NRL : 4 - 5 (44%)
let's get this record better!!!!

but i might bet on the eels...heh heh heh.

[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 07-29-2001).]