Game Two)
Nth Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders, Dairy Farmers Stadium
Cowboys -1.5
Two poor sides clashing ofen means that this type of game is one to avoid. But I believe the hosts have an edge here.
Neither side has much to recommend in the way of form - somewhat befitting for teams 12th and 13th on the ladder. The Cowboys were demolished 62-0 by the rampaging Eels last weekend - despite playing v 12 men for more than half the match! If they have any pride - and they have shown glimpses of that at times this year - they should be stung into a much better effort v the Raiders. Canberra were demolished by the Joey Johns show last weekend and are in a four-game losing slump.
Their home loss to the Tigers in rd 20 was a bad sign for a club which has had many first-team players ruled out lately thru injury. The Cowboys, on the other hand, showed signs of a pulse still in a road win over the Panthers in rd 17 and a 34-10 home drubbing of the in-form Dragons just two rounds back.
Neither side has much to recommend in the forward packs - John Doyle and John Buttigieg are missing for the Cowboys but only Luke Davico and Simon Woolford offer much for the visitors. While the scrumhalf pairing of Andrew McFadden and Brett Finch are creative for the Raiders, Julian O'Neill, Paul Bowman and Nathan Fien can spark the Cowboys.
Both sides are still potential wooden spooners. But a win to the Cowboys would draw them level with the Raiders. Given home advantage - Townsville at 5.30pm will be a lot different than Bruce Stadium in mid-winter - the Cowboys should edge out the visitors.
PLAY NTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS -1.5
Game Three)
Northern Eagles v Melbourne Storm, NorthPower Stadium
Eagles +4.5
The Eagles crumbled under the off-field pressures last weekend as they were stomped by the Tigers 38-6 while the Storm stunned the Broncos by coming from behind twice to win 32-28. So we have two teams at the complete opposite ends of the emotional mindset spectrum. We always have to be wary as to how teams can respond to such issues, but it gives us a starting point.
After a strong run, the Eagles have hit the wall with three consecutive losses. Their Completion Rate in the last two games has been awful - 56% and 58% - while their leaky defence has conceded 106 points (with 118 Missed Tackles) in their last three outings. Brett Kimmorley's ongoing arm injury has also limited his effectiveness as they've scored just 42 points in three games.
After hidings from the Sharks, Knights and Eels - interspersed with a 64-0 hammering of the Tigers - in their previous four games, the Storm produced a miracle to beat the defending champs. Their big pack got a very good roll on and the side will be full of confidence. Look for Kearns, Howe, Kearney etc to make yards and constantly seek to offload - 77 in their past four games - for Matt Orford to scoot around the fringes of the tackle. But their are still question marks over their defence too - 32 points against per game in the last five (including the Tigers shut-out) and they missed 90 tackles v the Eels and Broncos combined.
A high-scoring affair seems likely then - certainly the books agree with a 53.5 o/u total. Yet that may be too low still. In the past five matches involving the Eagles, an average of 53.6 points have been scored. For the Storm, it's a staggering 62 points per game - 60, 64, 64, 64 and 58 respectively.
A loss here makes the Eagles' playoff chances an awful lot harder - but a Storm win could propel them into the top six.
PLAY STORM -4.5
PLAY OVER 53.5
GLTA
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