NRL Rd 25:
Just an early heads up on a few interesting lines I saw last night.
One of my weaknesses as a punter is not jumping on a line early - tend to make my plays late after careful weighing up all the pros and cons and sometimes miss the "gift horse".
Not saying any of the following are such, but they certainly demand some closer investigation and a wager if you believe there is the sort of value that jumped out at me on an initial sighting.
Unfortunately, I'm at home this week as a solo dad, so don't have the time or access I normally do to my 'capping info, so can't help as much as I'd like to on taking this further. Nevermind, as Mr Cobain once said, let's just have a quick peak then..
Sharks $2 v Bulldogs on Fri nite
Tigers $2.20 v Panthers Sat nite
Warriors $2.25 v Storm Mon nite
Roosters v Dragons, Sun pm
Thoughts: The Sharks as dogs? Why? 6-1 ATS in last 7 games; the one loss SU and ATS coming v the Warriors at Ericsson, where they have beaten the Eels, Bulldogs, Broncos and Roosters also this season. The Bulldogs are at home, and second in the table (Sharks third) but haven't set the world on fire of late. I'd pegged the Bulldogs, 4-7-1 ATS as a home fave, at +3.5.
Again, hard to fathom why the Panthers are faves. Sure, they pushed the Storm hard on Monday but how good are the Storm defensively? And they beat the Raiders, who are awful, in Rd 23 after being whipped late at home by the Warriors and beaten by the Dragons. The Tigers really pushed the Eels last weekend a week after the miracle comeback v the Knights, also pushed the Bulldogs hard and thumped the Eagles. Tigers 6-6 ATS as road dogs, Panthers 1-7 ATS as home chalk. I'd have the Panthers at +4.5.
The Warriors/Storm clash is huge in top-8 terms, with a loss for the Storm ending their hopes and a defeat for the Warriors suddenly making their's look edgy again. OK, they're not at the home fortress, but the Warriors have done well in Melbourne previously and have a new steely glint about them with the playoffs begging. The Storm, well, always flatter to deceive, 4-6 ATS as a home fave, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 matches, a still miss an awful lot of tackles. I'd have it as a pick 'em.
The Roosters are $2 dogs at NSW SportsTAB while the Dragons are $2 dogs at Centrebet. Watch the line closely in this one; there's the outside possibility of a scalp for a big spender while also the slight chance of a middle if there opens up a 2.5 line for each side. Again, on current form, slight lean to the Dragons.
Good luck if you can make some advantage from these.
Just an early heads up on a few interesting lines I saw last night.
One of my weaknesses as a punter is not jumping on a line early - tend to make my plays late after careful weighing up all the pros and cons and sometimes miss the "gift horse".
Not saying any of the following are such, but they certainly demand some closer investigation and a wager if you believe there is the sort of value that jumped out at me on an initial sighting.
Unfortunately, I'm at home this week as a solo dad, so don't have the time or access I normally do to my 'capping info, so can't help as much as I'd like to on taking this further. Nevermind, as Mr Cobain once said, let's just have a quick peak then..
Sharks $2 v Bulldogs on Fri nite
Tigers $2.20 v Panthers Sat nite
Warriors $2.25 v Storm Mon nite
Roosters v Dragons, Sun pm
Thoughts: The Sharks as dogs? Why? 6-1 ATS in last 7 games; the one loss SU and ATS coming v the Warriors at Ericsson, where they have beaten the Eels, Bulldogs, Broncos and Roosters also this season. The Bulldogs are at home, and second in the table (Sharks third) but haven't set the world on fire of late. I'd pegged the Bulldogs, 4-7-1 ATS as a home fave, at +3.5.
Again, hard to fathom why the Panthers are faves. Sure, they pushed the Storm hard on Monday but how good are the Storm defensively? And they beat the Raiders, who are awful, in Rd 23 after being whipped late at home by the Warriors and beaten by the Dragons. The Tigers really pushed the Eels last weekend a week after the miracle comeback v the Knights, also pushed the Bulldogs hard and thumped the Eagles. Tigers 6-6 ATS as road dogs, Panthers 1-7 ATS as home chalk. I'd have the Panthers at +4.5.
The Warriors/Storm clash is huge in top-8 terms, with a loss for the Storm ending their hopes and a defeat for the Warriors suddenly making their's look edgy again. OK, they're not at the home fortress, but the Warriors have done well in Melbourne previously and have a new steely glint about them with the playoffs begging. The Storm, well, always flatter to deceive, 4-6 ATS as a home fave, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 matches, a still miss an awful lot of tackles. I'd have it as a pick 'em.
The Roosters are $2 dogs at NSW SportsTAB while the Dragons are $2 dogs at Centrebet. Watch the line closely in this one; there's the outside possibility of a scalp for a big spender while also the slight chance of a middle if there opens up a 2.5 line for each side. Again, on current form, slight lean to the Dragons.
Good luck if you can make some advantage from these.
