NRL Rd 26

[Anders]

Throw the stats out the window.

This weekend all comes down to the intangibles - motivation, desire, cunning, who wants to show up....

Unless you have a strong angle to base a wager on, it's a good week to sit back and watch how the playoff teams are shaping.

Here's a useful piece from AAP on the situation - I'll be back later with some extra thoughts..

LEAGUE-NRL-EIGHT
TOP EIGHT'S RUN HOME
Sydney, Aug 29 AAP - One week out from the National Rugby League finals the title contenders have been decided but their opponents in the qualifying finals are yet to be determined. AAP looks at the run home for each title contender and predicts its opponent in the opening weeks of the playoffs.

Team Rd 26 Opponent
PARRAMATTA (40 points) - Sydney Roosters (away)
Finish season: 1st
Likely qualifying opponent: St George Illawarra
With the minor premiership wrapped up, Eels coach Brian Smith has used the past three rounds to experiment with combinations and rest his workers, but not at the risk of losing a match and with it Parramatta's momentum. It's hooker Brad Drew's turn for a rest this week with prop Michael Vella and five-eighth Michael Buettner returning from their break.

BULLDOGS (35) - St George Illawarra (a)
Finish season: 2nd
Likely qualifying opponent: Sydney Roosters
Like his Eels' counterpart, Bulldogs coach Steve Folkes is using the security of second place to rest his stalwarts. Skipper Darren Britt and fellow forward Steve Reardon will take the weekend off to shake minor injuries while fullback ``Rocket'' Rod Silva makes his 2001 first grade debut against the Dragons. Folkes, too, can afford to test new combinations this week should he meet any unexpected obstacles in the playoffs.

NEWCASTLE (31) - Penrith (home)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Highest possible finish: 3rd
Lowest possible finish: 4th
Likely qualifying opponent: New Zealand Warriors
What were they thinking? Just when everything was back on track - or more specifically Andrew Johns was back - the Knights went and embarrassed themselves by drinking too much and misbehaving on their flight from Townsville. The disruption the bad publicity and embarrassment has caused the team won't be known until Saturday when they host Penrith. If the Knights beat the Panthers, they're guaranteed to finish the season 3rd but an upset on Saturday and a win to the Sharks means Newcastle will have to be satisfied with 4th place.
SHARKS (30) - Wests Tigers (a)
Predicted finish: 4th
Highest possible finish: 3rd
Lowest possible finish: 4th
Likely qualifying opponent: Brisbane
On their recent form the Sharks should have little trouble disposing of the Tigers. The Cronulla-based team will be without rampaging prop Jason Stevens as he serves a one-match suspension but the rest should revitalise him for the finals. After Friday night's loss to the Bulldogs. Dogs skipper Darren Britt rated the Sharks tougher opponents than Parramatta. Should the Knights and Brisbane win on the weekend, the Sharks will be pitted against last year's premier in what could be a sudden death battle in the qualifying final. The Sharks outclassed the Broncos when they met two weeks ago and knocking Brisbane out in the first week of the playoffs would be a fitting farewell to Sharks coach John Lang.

BRISBANE (27) - Northern Eagles (a)
Predicted finish: 5th
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: 8th
Likely qualifying opponent: Sharks
Things look bad but they could get worse for the Broncos. The reigning NRL premiers could find themselves in a sudden death playoff against Parramatta - a team which has beaten Brisbane in both encounters this year - if they lose to the Eagles on Saturday and the Warriors, Dragons and Roosters all post wins. And the halves position at Brisbane continues to worsen, with five-eighth Casey McGuire out of action with a fractured eye socket. In the final week of the competition the embattled Eagles remain an unknown factor and have a motivation to beat the Broncos to ensure retiring skipper Geoff Toovey receives a fitting farewell.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS (27) - Parramatta (h)
Predicted finish: 7th
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: 8th
Likely qualifying opponent: Bulldogs
The Roosters are suddenly looking more like finals contenders following skipper Brad Fittler's return to form last week and the news of Craig Wing's recovery from injury to give last year's grand finalists an experienced halfback. But the Roosters are up against the Eels and Parramatta coach Brian Smith has made it clear he does not intend to lose.

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (26) - Bulldogs (h)
Predicted finish: 8th
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: 8th
Likely qualifying opponent: Parramatta
The Dragons have some work to do to improve on last week's errors against the Roosters if they hope to move up the ladder and avoid a definite sudden death final. After initially being ruled out for the season, prop Luke Bailey returns to first grade following his quicker than expected recovery from a pectoral muscle injury. Bailey is needed to take the pressure off Jason Ryles, who was forced to take on too much responsibility in the absence of skipper Craig Smith and second rower Lance Thompson.

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (26) - North Queensland (h)
Predicted finish: 6th
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: 8th
Likely qualifying opponent: Newcastle
It's taken seven years and the Warriors are savouring their inaugural finals berth but a last round win over the Cowboys would top their celebrations ahead of the serious business. Coach Daniel Anderson has fans to show their support at the team's final appearance in New Zealand this season. But North Queensland could prove dangerous as it makes a last ditch attempt to avoid a second straight wooden spoon. Once the finals begin the Warriors are capable of beating any team and, except for Newcastle, have done so this season.

 

[Cartman88]

Nice write up Anders.

 

[Cartman88]

Originally posted by Anders:
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (26)

Still hard to believe.

Wish I had taken some of the 7-1 available at the start of the year on the Warriors making the Top 8.

 

[Anders]

Like Eric Watson did

Thoughts on the Warriors this week - now that I'm an expert on winning Warriors' bets

Line is exactly what I had pegged it at - -12.5

Initial sway to the Cowboys - don't want the wooden spoon; good at covering big numbers on the road (8-4 Road Dogs ATS); Warriors a let-down after Monday's playoff clinching game, physical toll could tell with 5-day backup...

Devil's Advocate: Will the Cowboys treat it as a last-game piss-up trip? Will the Warriors want to give their loyal home fans a treat and throw it all over the park and go scoring nuts?

Still thinking...

Keep looking for spots where we have an edge in motivation.



[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 08-29-2001).]

 

[Cartman88]

Anders,

I am quite keen on Nth Qld +13.5 which is available at Centrebet & Sportodds.

Nth Qld do have a good record at covering the spread away from home and they have looked like a fair team in patches this year.

As you mentioned the Warriors have some factors that might go against them this week.

I can't recall the Warriors ever being such heavy favs before and often this can be a good time to go against a team.

I thought that Brisbane/Nthn Eagles over 44.5 looks like a strong play as well. I was expecting more like 50.5 !!!!

I will also give some serious consideration to Melbourne/Canberra over 51.5 due to both teams being out of the finals race. They should throw the ball around and make it a high scoring match.

--------------------------------------------

At this stage my plays are:

Nth Qld +13.5
Brisbane/Nthn Eagles Over 44.5
Melbourne/Canberra Over 51.5

 

[Cartman88]

Looks like some key players may be rested this weekend. Here is the latest from the NRL website:

With the top two places on the National Rugby League table secured, Parramatta and the Bulldogs have opted to rest key players for the last round ahead of the finals.

Skipper Darren Britt and second rower Steve Reardon have been rested from the Bulldogs' clash with St George Illawarra at the Sydney Football Stadium on Friday night.

Parramatta, which wrapped up the minor premiership two rounds ago, will sideline nuggety hooker Brad Drew for Sunday's match against the sixth-placed Sydney Roosters.

Bulldogs coach Steve Folkes said his two veterans had been below peak fitness for the past few weeks and he wouldn't risk further injury to them after sealing second place with a win over the Sharks last Friday.

Despite giving the pair a week off, Folkes said today he expected his side to lift intensity against the Dragons on Friday night.

He said he could already feel the change into finals mode.

"There's a definite lift in intensity around Belmore at this time of year and it's starting to kick-in already," Folkes said.

"I think all the players are aware of the tradition surrounding the Bulldogs and semi-finals.

"We haven't been at our best the last couple of weeks so I expect them to lift against the Dragons this Friday night and start the momentum."

Paul Rauhihi has been promoted from first division to the front row to replace Britt, while Jamie Feeney takes Reardon's spot in the second row.

Barry Ward and Adam Peek are the new replacements on the bench while Corey Hughes will take the place of the suspended Brent Sherwin.

Ward's availability is conditional on the result of a first division judiciary hearing.

Eels coach Brian Smith gave five-eighth Michael Buettner and Michael Vella last weekend off to recover from niggling injuries and today opted to rest his pacey hooker.

Daniel Irvine will start in place of Drew, while prop Vella will start ahead of Jason Cayless.

Buettner's return has pushed PJ Marsh back to the bench while centre Jamie Lyon had replaced Luke Burt.

For the Roosters, Craig Wing has recovered from a calf strain to start at halfback while prop Adrian has been named ahead of Mick Crocker.

The return of stalwart centre Paul McGregor and the absence of Jamie Ainscough (rib) is the only change to the Dragons line-up to face the Bulldogs.

The fourth-placed Sharks have lost prop Jason Stevens to a week's suspension, with Chris Beattie starting in the pack for their Sunday afternoon clash with Wests Tigers.

Matt Seers has been named as Tigers fullback with Joel Caine moving to the wing while John Carlaw will replace Kevin McGuinness (knee) in the centres.

Prop Shane Walker, playing his last game at Leichhardt Oval after eight years, will co-captain the side with Darren Senter.

The Knights host an unchanged Penrith with winger Darren Albert (ankle) and prop Matt Parsons (sternum) facing fitness tests tomorrow.

Parsons will take over from Steve Simpson, with Simpson moving back to the second row to replace Julian Bailey (broken arm).

Canberra will blood rookie centre James Evans against Melbourne at Bruce Stadium on Saturday night, with Greg Wolfgramm moving out to the wing to replace Ken Nagas (hamstring).

Suspended Storm prop Rodney Howe will miss the final game of the season before a knee reconstruction and shoulder surgery next month.

Tasesa Lavea returns to the bench after missing Monday's loss to the NZ Warriors due to the birth of his first child.

 

[Anders]

You've been reading my mind again Eric :;

Fell off my chair when I saw the Eagles/Broncos ine

Have given up on the Broncos defence coming right; should still score a few; Eagles keen on a big finish for Toovs and given the parlous player contract situation.
Forecast is for showers; any weather update from those in the know would be great

Hard to tell if "nothing on this game" means lax defence and the desire to throw the ball around or attacking play becomes sloppy and haphazard - another intangible.

My leans

Dragons pk
Cowboys +13.5
Over 44.5 Eagles/Broncos
Sharks -6.5

 

[Anders]

Game One)
St George Illawarra Dragons v Bulldogs, SFS, 7.30pm
Dragons pk 'em

First game of the last round of the regular season. With the top eight teams already sorted, there are few solid wagering opportunities this weekend but I believe this game offers the punter an edge.
The Bulldogs are guaranteed second spot for the first week of the playoffs no matter what happens in this match or in any others in this round. Therefore, coach Steve Folkes has chosen wisely to rest captain and prop Darren Britt and fellow hard-working forward Steve Reardon for tonight's game with Paul Rauhihi and Jamie Feeney getting starts.
However, the Dragons have plenty to play for. The Andrew Farrar-coached side are one of four teams who could find themselves at the end of the weekend anywhere between fifth and eighth spot. With spots five and six offering those finishers the best possibility of an extra playoff life, they will be much coveted. The Dragons, currently seventh, can put pressure on the sides around them by jumping up the ladder with a win here.
They were disappointing last weekend in the 25-12 loss to the Roosters but as Farrar said afterwards, they were caught in "the wrong place at the wrong time" as Brad Fittler took his anger out on the Dragons. The beaten side committed far too many errors to win the game - completing just 21 of 41 sets - but they were on the wrong end of every 50/50 call and stuck close for a long time. They were forced to make 298 tackles but missed only 22 and have been very solid defensively over the past month or more.
They will field newcomer Matt Cooper on the wing in place of the injured Jamie Ainscough while Paul McGregor returns at centre in the last regular season match of his NRL career. They are still without injured forward Lance Thompson and suspended skipper Craig Smith but got good news with Luke Bailey back in the reserves after he was initially ruled out for the season.
I'm not suggesting for a moment that the Bulldogs will relax in this match. But the Dragons do have a lot more to play for and in what was always going to be a close encounter, that may give us the edge in a pick 'em situation.
PLAY DRAGONS PK 'EM

Yep, disregarding what Folkes said above - sounds like coach-speak to me

GLTA

 

[beast2]

Round 26 Plays:

Northern Eagles +4.5 d Brisbane
Canberra -1.5 d Melbourne
Parramatta -4.5 d Sydney City
Sharks -6.5 d West Tigers

Craig

 

[Anders]

Ah, how frustrating was that

For Sat (no write-up)..

PLAY EAGLES/BRONCOS OVER 44.5

GLTA

 

[Fred]

Heavy rain in Canberra 1hr from kick off

 

[Fred]

Lighter now, with clearing forecast. Was thinking of the under but will pass.

GL

 

[Cartman88]

Thanks for the update Fred.

I am on the over in this game anyway so pleased to see the rain letting up.

 

[Anders]

Good info Fred, cheers...

The weather forecast was why I shied off the over. GL Eric now that it's fining up with the Over.


Here are my last two plays for the year

Nth Qld Cowboys +13.5
Sharks -6.5

It's been a blast fellas

As usual

GLTA

Your mate
Anders

 

[Fred]

Congrats again on a great season Anders.

From another thread there was word you may have been snapped up to work for a bookie.

Could hardly blame you if you did join the 'enemy'. If you don't mind me asking, what's the latest?

Good luck with whatever you do.

 

[Cartman88]

Solid weekend going 2-1.

Nth Qld not only covered the +13.5 spread but they caused a big upset beating the Warriors by 30-18.

Nthn Eagles vs Brisbane was always looking solid and in the end went well over the 44.5 total.

Canberra vs Melbourne was the only disappointment. I had expected an open game with high scoring but heavy rain prior to the match didn't help as the game went under the 51.5 total.

The home and away season is now over and next week the finals begin. I still like Parramatta to go all the way. They have been the most dominant side all year and providing they can keep their form going for a few more weeks they will be very hard to beat.