Game One) Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels, ANZ Stadium, Brisbane
Broncos -3.5
A preview of the Grand Final? Probably, although expect the Roosters and Knights to have another view. But this is the clash of the season to date.
The Broncos are aiming to equal their outstanding club record of consecutive home wins at 24 while the Eels seek their 10th win in a row.
Normally it would be near impossible to back a visitor to Brisbane getting only 3.5 pts but there are some compelling reasons why the Eels are still worthy of deep consideration.
When the two teams met earlier this yr in rd 3, the Eels won 26-18 at home and were undoubtedly the better side in a mistake-filled match - rare for both teams but a sign of the tension when these teams meet.
This match couldn't have come at a worse time for the Broncos and Wayne Bennett, who has always been wary about how his side would perform between State of Origin matches. The Broncos had 10 players - nine for the Reds and hooker Luke Priddis with the Blues - involved on Sunday so full training for Brisbane only began yesterday; just one day out from their biggest game of the season. And there will be a number of Broncos still feeling the effects of the bashing they took from the Blues.
Tough to get a handle on Bennett too - surely he must have one eye at least partially on Origin game 3, while opposing Eels coach Brian Smith would have been scheming on his gameplan for tonight for a fortnight (if not longer). And there's no love lost between these two coaches.
Let's look at form now. Nothing wrong with the Broncos is most areas - completion rate consistently from 70 up to early 80% range, single-figure errors 6 weeks out of 7, average approx 8 line breaks per game. But the one notable area of concern is missed tackles in the past 2 weeks - 24 v the less-than-stellar Cowboys followed by a startling un-Bronco-like 31 v the lowly Panthers in rd 15.
The Eels have been near impeccable - in 7 of their last 9 games their comp rate has been 76% or better, they average 12 line breaks per game in their last 5 outings, have missed less than 20 tackles in each of their last five games and have exceeded 10 errors just once (11 last rd in their demolition of the Sharks) in their past 6 games.
Smith is able to name a fully fit side too - Jason Taylor is back from his injury knock v the Sharks (very important in goalkicking percentages), while they only had Daniel Wagon, Andrew Ryan and Michael Vella involved in SoO2. Vella and Ryan were interchange players while skipper Nathan Cayless was in the Kiwis' test romp v France.
A side-bar highlight to watch? The two fullbacks; the genius of Lockyer v the electric Brett Hodgson.
Who will cover? Already a couple of $10,000 punters have backed the home team at the ML. The Broncos could yet win but the Eels cover. Anyhow, I'm going to go with the dogs to cover the spread - think the Eels are in the perfect position to do so and could even become the first team to win on enemy soil since they beat the Broncos at ANZ Stadium towards the end of the 1999 season.
PLAY PARRAMATTA ELS +3.5
Will look at Saturday's games tomorrow.
GLTA
