NRL Round 17
- Thread starter Cartman88
- Start date
Hi team - just a brief rundown on games for your info; trying now to sort out a few winners
NRL Rd 17)
Game 1) Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights, Parramatta Stadium
Eels -9.5
The red-hot Eels - 10 on the trot - host the slumping Knights, who were terrible in their home loss to the Bulldogs last Sunday and are now really suffering without Andrew Johns. The Knights have re-vamped their halves combination with hooker Danny Buderus moving to halfback, Sean Rudder to five-eighth and Matthew Gidley back to the centres. Ben Donaldson comes in at hooker while Adam MacDougall returns from a week's suspension to replace Justin Ryder. For the Eels, Jason Moodie will start at fullback with Scott Donald on the wing with Brett Hogdson still out injured. The Knights won the first round match-up 32-14 at Marathon Stadium.
Game 2) Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Penrith Stadium
Panthers -10.5
A lot of wood for a team that has struggled as much as Penrith has this season to cover. The Cowboys were thumped 50-24 by the Roosters last weekend though while goalkicking proved the difference as the Panthers went down 32-22 to the Eagles away. Jody Gall is out injured for the hosts while hooker John Doyle is back for the Cowboys.
Game 3) Wests Tigers v Brisbane Broncos, Campbelltown Stadium
Wests +8.5
Wests broke a long barren spell with an away win over the Warriors last weekend while the Broncos were beaten in a classic encounter by the Eels. Broncos coach Wayne Bennett has moved to solve the halves problem I mentioned earlier this week by dropping Shane Walker and combining Stu Kelly with Scott Prince as they aim to make up for long-term injuries to Ben Ikin and Shaun Berrigan.
Game 4) Sharks v Melbourne Storm, Toyota Pk
Sharks -3.5
Just how valuable the presence of David Peachey is for the Sharks was shown last week as he inspired them to a convincing away win v the Raiders. Peachey hand a hand in almost all of the five tries for the normally low-scoring Sharks, who are close to full strength for the first time in a long while. The Storm dominated the Dragons but relaxed when well ahead and it almost cost them but they get Rodney Howe back this week in place of the dropped Russell Bawden.
Game 5) Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters, Bruce Stadium
Raiders +5.5
After thumping the Bulldogs, the Raiders slumped last weekend at home v the Sharks and are a hard team to get a handle on. The Roosters have hit a nice patch of form, following up their invaluable away win over the Knights with a free-flowing romp over the Cowboys and have Brad Fittler firing on all cylinders. They will be without lock Bryan Fletcher though after he was handed a one-game suspension for punching Cowboy Nathan Fien.
Game 6) St George Illawarra Dragons v NZ Warriors, WIN Stadium
Dragons -11.5
A little surprised by the big number here for the home team despite the pitiful effort by the Warriors in their home loss to the Tigers last weekend. The Dragons have been in reasonable form but don't often kill teams off and give up a lot of points to make this number "a big ask". Depends on which Warriors team turns up. Willie Peters is now expected to be fit at scrumhalf for the hosts while hooker Jason Death is on the injury list for the Warriors, with Monty "Python" Betham to start as rake.
Game 7) Northern Eagles v Bulldogs, NorthPower Stadium
Pick 'em
Eagles did enough in the the first half - and then late in the second spell - to see off the Panthers last weekend while the Bulldogs bounced back from possibly their worst-ever performance to demolish the Knights at Marathon. Bulldogs look much better with Braith Anasta and "Tricky" Trindall running the cutter. Shaky defence from both teams; expect a few tries.
Back tomorrow with early plays
NRL Rd 17)
Game 1) Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights, Parramatta Stadium
Eels -9.5
The red-hot Eels - 10 on the trot - host the slumping Knights, who were terrible in their home loss to the Bulldogs last Sunday and are now really suffering without Andrew Johns. The Knights have re-vamped their halves combination with hooker Danny Buderus moving to halfback, Sean Rudder to five-eighth and Matthew Gidley back to the centres. Ben Donaldson comes in at hooker while Adam MacDougall returns from a week's suspension to replace Justin Ryder. For the Eels, Jason Moodie will start at fullback with Scott Donald on the wing with Brett Hogdson still out injured. The Knights won the first round match-up 32-14 at Marathon Stadium.
Game 2) Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Penrith Stadium
Panthers -10.5
A lot of wood for a team that has struggled as much as Penrith has this season to cover. The Cowboys were thumped 50-24 by the Roosters last weekend though while goalkicking proved the difference as the Panthers went down 32-22 to the Eagles away. Jody Gall is out injured for the hosts while hooker John Doyle is back for the Cowboys.
Game 3) Wests Tigers v Brisbane Broncos, Campbelltown Stadium
Wests +8.5
Wests broke a long barren spell with an away win over the Warriors last weekend while the Broncos were beaten in a classic encounter by the Eels. Broncos coach Wayne Bennett has moved to solve the halves problem I mentioned earlier this week by dropping Shane Walker and combining Stu Kelly with Scott Prince as they aim to make up for long-term injuries to Ben Ikin and Shaun Berrigan.
Game 4) Sharks v Melbourne Storm, Toyota Pk
Sharks -3.5
Just how valuable the presence of David Peachey is for the Sharks was shown last week as he inspired them to a convincing away win v the Raiders. Peachey hand a hand in almost all of the five tries for the normally low-scoring Sharks, who are close to full strength for the first time in a long while. The Storm dominated the Dragons but relaxed when well ahead and it almost cost them but they get Rodney Howe back this week in place of the dropped Russell Bawden.
Game 5) Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters, Bruce Stadium
Raiders +5.5
After thumping the Bulldogs, the Raiders slumped last weekend at home v the Sharks and are a hard team to get a handle on. The Roosters have hit a nice patch of form, following up their invaluable away win over the Knights with a free-flowing romp over the Cowboys and have Brad Fittler firing on all cylinders. They will be without lock Bryan Fletcher though after he was handed a one-game suspension for punching Cowboy Nathan Fien.
Game 6) St George Illawarra Dragons v NZ Warriors, WIN Stadium
Dragons -11.5
A little surprised by the big number here for the home team despite the pitiful effort by the Warriors in their home loss to the Tigers last weekend. The Dragons have been in reasonable form but don't often kill teams off and give up a lot of points to make this number "a big ask". Depends on which Warriors team turns up. Willie Peters is now expected to be fit at scrumhalf for the hosts while hooker Jason Death is on the injury list for the Warriors, with Monty "Python" Betham to start as rake.
Game 7) Northern Eagles v Bulldogs, NorthPower Stadium
Pick 'em
Eagles did enough in the the first half - and then late in the second spell - to see off the Panthers last weekend while the Bulldogs bounced back from possibly their worst-ever performance to demolish the Knights at Marathon. Bulldogs look much better with Braith Anasta and "Tricky" Trindall running the cutter. Shaky defence from both teams; expect a few tries.
Back tomorrow with early plays
I'll try my hand at the NRL for Friday Down Under
Knights +8'. Eels have been getting the job done but I'll take my chances and the 8'.
May all our wagers be winning ones.
Knights +8'. Eels have been getting the job done but I'll take my chances and the 8'.
May all our wagers be winning ones.
Proline - great to see you jumping in
I'm not playing this one. Most will be on the Eels and they should win as the Knights have been slumping, but teams can turn around their form very quickly in the NRL and I believe Newcastle really need to show tonight that they are still potential Grand Finalists even without Andrew Johns. Kicks off in 90 mins; will watch and cheer for ya
My Sat (Down Under time) plays are as follows...
NRL Rd 17)
Game 2) Penrith Panthers v Nth Qld Cowboys, Penrith FS
Panthers -10.5
The question we have to answer is why is a team as lowly-ranked as the Panthers giving so many points? The main reasons are a) they are playing the comp's bottom team, b) that team was beaten by 26 pts last wkend, c) Panthers are at home, d) Panthers have shown some improvement in form of late.
They matched the Eagles try-for-try last weekend and could have beaten the Broncos in their last home outing. But there are still overweighing factors why they are already out of playoff contention. Their defence is close to atrocious - they have missed, on average, 30 tackles per game since rd 8 and averaged 11 errors per game in that time. The Cowboys are only slightly less mistake-prone (10 pg) and miss 29 tackles per game. But they will have been boosted in the last week by news of a new owbership deal and the confirmation of coach Murray Hurst remaining in charge until 2002. Both sides probably view this as a match they could win so, coupled with the glaring defensive weaknesses, points could come quickly. If the Panthers are to cover the spread, the number is very likely to help the total go over. So we'll hedge this one - we went 3-1 last weekend on our hedge bets and they may turn out to be a smart and profitable way to play certain NRL matches.
PLAY COWBOYS +10.5
PLAY OVER 49.5 POINTS
Game 3) Wests Tigers v Brisbane Broncos, Campbelltown Stadium
Tigers +8.5
Hard to see the Tigers getting close to their far classier opponents despite home advantage - the Broncos often struggle to cover the number on the road - and a strong effort to win away in NZ last weekend. But the visitors may have half a mind on State of Origin 3 - or they may seek revenge for their loss to the Eels last Friday. Better to concentrate on the total again. The Broncos have surprisingly missed 34 and 31 tackles respectively in their last 2 games - expect coach Wayne Bennett to have them back near their normal high standard of defence - just 18 missed per game in the previous eight outings. And they're a single-figure error team too. The Tigers base their game on a no-frills forward dominated approach and have few game-breakers - just 4.6 line breaks in their last 10 games - and their defence has been on a strong improving track of late - 20, 15 and 19 MT in their last 3 matches. Hard to see them threatening the Broncos line too often; the under is very appealing.
PLAY UNDER 47.5 PTS
Game 4) Sharks v Melbourne Storm, Toyota Pk
Sharks -3.5
I guess regular readers probably won't even bother to read this write-up; knowing that I'm just going to play the Storm anyway, right? Right!! This week I'll track back and see how often they've covered for me since rd 8 but I'd wager off the top of my head it's been a profitable number. Not that this is an automatic selection, but I'll continue to recommend them as long as the books continue to under-rate them. The Sharks covered easily - as we predicted - v the Raiders last wkend with David Peachey a key figure. But the Storm also have plenty of attacking weapons in fullback Matt Geyer, winger Marcus Bai and scrumhalf/standoff pairing of Scott Hill and Matt Orford. The Sharks have been very patchy - they still only managed a 71% completion rate v the Raiders and that was their second-best effort in that respect in 5 games. Both their tackling and error rates have also been haphazard. The Storm, contrarily, avg 77% comp rate in their last 6 games and make fewer mistakes - last weekend's 12 was the first double-digit excursion since rd 10. Not a big number for the home side to cover but the Storm, with big forwards Rodney Howe and Ben Roarty back, are quite capable of winning SU. I'll take the points.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM +3.5
GLTA
I'm not playing this one. Most will be on the Eels and they should win as the Knights have been slumping, but teams can turn around their form very quickly in the NRL and I believe Newcastle really need to show tonight that they are still potential Grand Finalists even without Andrew Johns. Kicks off in 90 mins; will watch and cheer for ya
My Sat (Down Under time) plays are as follows...
NRL Rd 17)
Game 2) Penrith Panthers v Nth Qld Cowboys, Penrith FS
Panthers -10.5
The question we have to answer is why is a team as lowly-ranked as the Panthers giving so many points? The main reasons are a) they are playing the comp's bottom team, b) that team was beaten by 26 pts last wkend, c) Panthers are at home, d) Panthers have shown some improvement in form of late.
They matched the Eagles try-for-try last weekend and could have beaten the Broncos in their last home outing. But there are still overweighing factors why they are already out of playoff contention. Their defence is close to atrocious - they have missed, on average, 30 tackles per game since rd 8 and averaged 11 errors per game in that time. The Cowboys are only slightly less mistake-prone (10 pg) and miss 29 tackles per game. But they will have been boosted in the last week by news of a new owbership deal and the confirmation of coach Murray Hurst remaining in charge until 2002. Both sides probably view this as a match they could win so, coupled with the glaring defensive weaknesses, points could come quickly. If the Panthers are to cover the spread, the number is very likely to help the total go over. So we'll hedge this one - we went 3-1 last weekend on our hedge bets and they may turn out to be a smart and profitable way to play certain NRL matches.
PLAY COWBOYS +10.5
PLAY OVER 49.5 POINTS
Game 3) Wests Tigers v Brisbane Broncos, Campbelltown Stadium
Tigers +8.5
Hard to see the Tigers getting close to their far classier opponents despite home advantage - the Broncos often struggle to cover the number on the road - and a strong effort to win away in NZ last weekend. But the visitors may have half a mind on State of Origin 3 - or they may seek revenge for their loss to the Eels last Friday. Better to concentrate on the total again. The Broncos have surprisingly missed 34 and 31 tackles respectively in their last 2 games - expect coach Wayne Bennett to have them back near their normal high standard of defence - just 18 missed per game in the previous eight outings. And they're a single-figure error team too. The Tigers base their game on a no-frills forward dominated approach and have few game-breakers - just 4.6 line breaks in their last 10 games - and their defence has been on a strong improving track of late - 20, 15 and 19 MT in their last 3 matches. Hard to see them threatening the Broncos line too often; the under is very appealing.
PLAY UNDER 47.5 PTS
Game 4) Sharks v Melbourne Storm, Toyota Pk
Sharks -3.5
I guess regular readers probably won't even bother to read this write-up; knowing that I'm just going to play the Storm anyway, right? Right!! This week I'll track back and see how often they've covered for me since rd 8 but I'd wager off the top of my head it's been a profitable number. Not that this is an automatic selection, but I'll continue to recommend them as long as the books continue to under-rate them. The Sharks covered easily - as we predicted - v the Raiders last wkend with David Peachey a key figure. But the Storm also have plenty of attacking weapons in fullback Matt Geyer, winger Marcus Bai and scrumhalf/standoff pairing of Scott Hill and Matt Orford. The Sharks have been very patchy - they still only managed a 71% completion rate v the Raiders and that was their second-best effort in that respect in 5 games. Both their tackling and error rates have also been haphazard. The Storm, contrarily, avg 77% comp rate in their last 6 games and make fewer mistakes - last weekend's 12 was the first double-digit excursion since rd 10. Not a big number for the home side to cover but the Storm, with big forwards Rodney Howe and Ben Roarty back, are quite capable of winning SU. I'll take the points.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM +3.5
GLTA
Three plays this weekend and two am I agreeing with Anders which with his record is always a good thing.
Plays:
North Queensland +10.5
Melbourne +3.5
Sydney -4.5
Craig
Plays:
North Queensland +10.5
Melbourne +3.5
Sydney -4.5
Craig
Friday night result:
Parramatta 40 Newcastle 0
How good are this team ????
I know in the past couple of seasons Parramatta have looked the goods and fallen short when the pressure goes on in the finals. But this year there is something about Parramatta that makes me believe they could go all the way.
In the past 7 weeks they have won by margins of 54 12 16 26 30 16 & 40. This includes convincing wins over the other top 3 sides.
Parramatta 40 Newcastle 0
How good are this team ????
I know in the past couple of seasons Parramatta have looked the goods and fallen short when the pressure goes on in the finals. But this year there is something about Parramatta that makes me believe they could go all the way.
In the past 7 weeks they have won by margins of 54 12 16 26 30 16 & 40. This includes convincing wins over the other top 3 sides.
not many lessons to be learned from one game, although a bit hard to fade the Eels at the moment, it seems
The Eels were indeed huge. And I was right, it was a statement game for the Knights. The statement they made was "We're shite. Absolute crap. Complete pants."
The most impressive aspect to me of the Eels is the pace of their forwards, strange as that made sound. They make so much ground just hitting the ball up because they are always running onto it at pace and are quick off the mark. Guys like Andrew Ryan, Michael Vella and Nathan Cayless are wonderful, complete athletes - and is there a better rake in the game at present than Brad Drew?
The most impressive aspect to me of the Eels is the pace of their forwards, strange as that made sound. They make so much ground just hitting the ball up because they are always running onto it at pace and are quick off the mark. Guys like Andrew Ryan, Michael Vella and Nathan Cayless are wonderful, complete athletes - and is there a better rake in the game at present than Brad Drew?
The news from the rest of the night nowhere near as good as the Broncos run riot over the Tigers and the Sharks get 40
v the Storm.
Here's what I like for tomorrow..
Two plays for Sunday:
Game 5) Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters, Bruce Stadium
Raiders +4.5
Raiders are very inconsistent. A week after destroying the Bulldogs away they surrender meekly to the Sharks. A sign of their problems is 8 weeks from the last 10 featuring double-digit errors. The refusal of Todd Payten to sign a new contract and the admission they were chasing Canterbury rugby forward and former Bronco Brad Thorn hints that not all is running smoothly for the Green Machine. Their best completion rate this season has been 75% (v the Panthers). The Roosters, on the other hand, appear to be a side on the way up after a worrying mid-season slump. Brad Fittler's form has been a key while they have also got an increased offload rate from their pack, which is complementary to better results. They have more firepower out wide to cover this number and with the Eagles, Bulldogs and Panthers to follow must fancy their chances of stringing together a run of results to try and squeeze past the Broncos into the top two.
PLAY SYDNEY ROOSTERS -4.5
Game 6) St George Illawarra Dragons v NZ Warriors, WIN Stadium
Dragons -12.5
Decided it's time to bury this ridiculous Warriors bogey once and for all. Will just 'cap their games as I do all others. But if you want to fade any of my plays on them, you have a host of good reasons too and I'll understand completely. The Dragons are a playoff contender and came home late last weekend to just fall short v the Storm. Their comp rate has been very good of late (83%, 74%, 73%, 75% in last 4 games) but I'm wary of the stats from the Storm game - just eight missed tackles in a game they lose 32-26 doesn't seem right at all! Errors are a worry - 32 over the last 2 outings. Nathan Blacklock and Trent Barret are undoubtedly their dangermen, although Barrett's effectiveness may be hampered a little by the abssence of the injured scrumhalf Willie Peters - replaced by 21-y-o Kieran Kerr. The Warriors looked half-asleep v the Tigers last weekend and should have been given a rocket all week from coach Daniel Anderson. Their defence has been solid but Anderson has mentioned this week he wants far more sharpness on attack. If they can match-up with the Craig Smith-less Dragons pack then they should cover the wood.
PLAY NZ WARRIORS +12.5
GLTA
Here's what I like for tomorrow..
Two plays for Sunday:
Game 5) Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters, Bruce Stadium
Raiders +4.5
Raiders are very inconsistent. A week after destroying the Bulldogs away they surrender meekly to the Sharks. A sign of their problems is 8 weeks from the last 10 featuring double-digit errors. The refusal of Todd Payten to sign a new contract and the admission they were chasing Canterbury rugby forward and former Bronco Brad Thorn hints that not all is running smoothly for the Green Machine. Their best completion rate this season has been 75% (v the Panthers). The Roosters, on the other hand, appear to be a side on the way up after a worrying mid-season slump. Brad Fittler's form has been a key while they have also got an increased offload rate from their pack, which is complementary to better results. They have more firepower out wide to cover this number and with the Eagles, Bulldogs and Panthers to follow must fancy their chances of stringing together a run of results to try and squeeze past the Broncos into the top two.
PLAY SYDNEY ROOSTERS -4.5
Game 6) St George Illawarra Dragons v NZ Warriors, WIN Stadium
Dragons -12.5
Decided it's time to bury this ridiculous Warriors bogey once and for all. Will just 'cap their games as I do all others. But if you want to fade any of my plays on them, you have a host of good reasons too and I'll understand completely. The Dragons are a playoff contender and came home late last weekend to just fall short v the Storm. Their comp rate has been very good of late (83%, 74%, 73%, 75% in last 4 games) but I'm wary of the stats from the Storm game - just eight missed tackles in a game they lose 32-26 doesn't seem right at all! Errors are a worry - 32 over the last 2 outings. Nathan Blacklock and Trent Barret are undoubtedly their dangermen, although Barrett's effectiveness may be hampered a little by the abssence of the injured scrumhalf Willie Peters - replaced by 21-y-o Kieran Kerr. The Warriors looked half-asleep v the Tigers last weekend and should have been given a rocket all week from coach Daniel Anderson. Their defence has been solid but Anderson has mentioned this week he wants far more sharpness on attack. If they can match-up with the Craig Smith-less Dragons pack then they should cover the wood.
PLAY NZ WARRIORS +12.5
GLTA
Originally I just posted one NRL for this weekend:
Nthn Eagles $2.05 vs Bulldogs
After a bit of study I am now adding the following:
Sydney Roosters -4.5 vs Canberra
Nthn Eagles $2.05 vs Bulldogs
After a bit of study I am now adding the following:
Sydney Roosters -4.5 vs Canberra
As a follower took the following,
Sydney -5' and -190 on ML.
Warriors +12
and Northern Eagles +105.
Sydney -5' and -190 on ML.
Warriors +12
and Northern Eagles +105.
Results from NRL Round 17:
Parramatta 40 Newcastle 0
Nth Qld 26 Penrith 20
Sharks 40 Storm 18
Broncos 44 West Tigers 10
Canberra 32 Roosters 22
St G Illa 38 Warriors 18
Bulldogs 32 Nthn Eagles 30
Very disappointing afternoon of Rugby League. Nthn Eagles give away a 20-0 lead (after 20 mins) and 30-20 lead (with 15 mins to go). Roosters looked very solid to cover the spread and in the end got beaten by 10 points.
0-2 for me on the NRL.
Parramatta 40 Newcastle 0
Nth Qld 26 Penrith 20
Sharks 40 Storm 18
Broncos 44 West Tigers 10
Canberra 32 Roosters 22
St G Illa 38 Warriors 18
Bulldogs 32 Nthn Eagles 30
Very disappointing afternoon of Rugby League. Nthn Eagles give away a 20-0 lead (after 20 mins) and 30-20 lead (with 15 mins to go). Roosters looked very solid to cover the spread and in the end got beaten by 10 points.
0-2 for me on the NRL.
I got my a$$ handed to me on a platter too - an ugly 1-5; worst NRL weekend of the season.
But first losing one in 4 or 5 rds I think so it's like the Prince in Blackadder said, gotta be able to take a hot crumpet up the rear without blubbering every now and again...
Weekend warp (or should that be wrap
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 06-24-2001).]
