NRL Round 23
- Thread starter Cartman88
- Start date
We know you mean Eels v Bulldogs Eric
- also leaning that way myself; don't see too many reasons why the eels gravy train - 15-7 ATS - should stop yet...
will post a very interesting article from Wozza Ryan here that relates nicely to totals/completion rates etc - a useful 'capping assistance piece...
For those not familiar with the NRL, Ryan is one of the game's most respected coaches who now works on the media side of things...
The vicious cycle of possession and point-scoring
By Warren Ryan
If the play-offs produce the attacking brilliance that was unleashed in the Sharks-Knights match on Sunday, it will be the most spectacular end of season ever.
For those that like their football tight and tense, big on defence and low on scoring, forget it. Or better still, pray for rain.
The game as we knew it no longer exists. Not only does the limited interchange produce additional fatigue, the team in possession is going for broke with the ball to accelerate the process.
So attack rules and possession is the king maker. Make mistakes and surrender the ball at your peril.
When a team forfeits possession against a crack opponent, the punishment cycle begins immediately and is relentless.
One problem triggers another and another. Loss of ball means less ball, which means more defence, which means more fatigue, which means poorer defence, which means better opportunity for opposition attack, which inevitably leads to points.
Then the process begins again. Kick off, no ball, more work, more fatigue and less sparkle in your own attack when you eventually get your hands on the pill. The 79 points at Toyota Park on Sunday suggests to those who weren't lucky enough to be there that neither the Sharks nor the Knights were interested in tackling. They had signed a mutual non-aggression pact. Not so.
There was plenty of sting and spite for the traditionalists. But the game travelled at such a pace that the skilled operators were always going to find the daylight. There were missed tackles too. Plenty of them were on the Sharks' sensational No7 Preston Campbell.
So what is happening? The avalanche of scoring right across the board - 1287 points more than at the corresponding time last year - shows that not only has the restriction on freshening up defenders taken a toll, but all-out attack and desperately keeping the ball alive has magnified the effect.
Teams know that if they don't rattle up points in the time they spend with the ball, the opposition will certainly do it when they get their hands on it.
Teams have to back their ability and skill level. Attack via very limited ball movement followed by a kick may look good in the completion column, but that kind of football is easy to defend, it doesn'ttire and it doesn't score points.
But when you marry a high completion rate (32 from 39 possessions) with brilliant attacking skills, it's not hard to see why the Sharks put 49 points past the Knights.
On the other side of the ledger, with comparatively poor figures (17 completions from 31 possessions) you can only conclude that the Knights are attacking wizards to get 30 points.
So let's have a look at the five top sides - I don't think the winner can come anywhere below fifth - and compare the tries scored and tries conceded at the 22-week mark last year with those this year.
First-placed Parramatta have made astonishing improvement this year. Last year at this stage they had scored 57 tries. This year they've run riot in attack with 124 tries. And in a points-fest climate, they've managed to reduce the tries against them from 64 last year to 55.
The quiet achievers, the Bulldogs, have hit second place. Last year: 59 tries. This year: 93. In defence last year: 80 tries. This year: 83.
This will surprise a few: The third-placed Knights haven't been part of this year's upsurge in try scoring. Last year: 109 tries. This year: 109 tries. Tries conceded last year: 78. This year: 89.
The fourth-placed Sharks were slow starters this year and hadn't assembled the lethal combination that has been piling on the tries in the past seven weeks. Last year: 87 tries scored. This year: 92. Defence last year: 63 tries. This year: 77.
The Brisbane story isn't as grim as opponents would like it to be. Last year: 103 tries. This year: 102. Defence, though, is an issue. Last year: 53 tries. This year: 72.
One grand finalist stands out like a three-legged elephant playing hopscotch. Can you pick the other?
will post a very interesting article from Wozza Ryan here that relates nicely to totals/completion rates etc - a useful 'capping assistance piece...
For those not familiar with the NRL, Ryan is one of the game's most respected coaches who now works on the media side of things...
The vicious cycle of possession and point-scoring
By Warren Ryan
If the play-offs produce the attacking brilliance that was unleashed in the Sharks-Knights match on Sunday, it will be the most spectacular end of season ever.
For those that like their football tight and tense, big on defence and low on scoring, forget it. Or better still, pray for rain.
The game as we knew it no longer exists. Not only does the limited interchange produce additional fatigue, the team in possession is going for broke with the ball to accelerate the process.
So attack rules and possession is the king maker. Make mistakes and surrender the ball at your peril.
When a team forfeits possession against a crack opponent, the punishment cycle begins immediately and is relentless.
One problem triggers another and another. Loss of ball means less ball, which means more defence, which means more fatigue, which means poorer defence, which means better opportunity for opposition attack, which inevitably leads to points.
Then the process begins again. Kick off, no ball, more work, more fatigue and less sparkle in your own attack when you eventually get your hands on the pill. The 79 points at Toyota Park on Sunday suggests to those who weren't lucky enough to be there that neither the Sharks nor the Knights were interested in tackling. They had signed a mutual non-aggression pact. Not so.
There was plenty of sting and spite for the traditionalists. But the game travelled at such a pace that the skilled operators were always going to find the daylight. There were missed tackles too. Plenty of them were on the Sharks' sensational No7 Preston Campbell.
So what is happening? The avalanche of scoring right across the board - 1287 points more than at the corresponding time last year - shows that not only has the restriction on freshening up defenders taken a toll, but all-out attack and desperately keeping the ball alive has magnified the effect.
Teams know that if they don't rattle up points in the time they spend with the ball, the opposition will certainly do it when they get their hands on it.
Teams have to back their ability and skill level. Attack via very limited ball movement followed by a kick may look good in the completion column, but that kind of football is easy to defend, it doesn'ttire and it doesn't score points.
But when you marry a high completion rate (32 from 39 possessions) with brilliant attacking skills, it's not hard to see why the Sharks put 49 points past the Knights.
On the other side of the ledger, with comparatively poor figures (17 completions from 31 possessions) you can only conclude that the Knights are attacking wizards to get 30 points.
So let's have a look at the five top sides - I don't think the winner can come anywhere below fifth - and compare the tries scored and tries conceded at the 22-week mark last year with those this year.
First-placed Parramatta have made astonishing improvement this year. Last year at this stage they had scored 57 tries. This year they've run riot in attack with 124 tries. And in a points-fest climate, they've managed to reduce the tries against them from 64 last year to 55.
The quiet achievers, the Bulldogs, have hit second place. Last year: 59 tries. This year: 93. In defence last year: 80 tries. This year: 83.
This will surprise a few: The third-placed Knights haven't been part of this year's upsurge in try scoring. Last year: 109 tries. This year: 109 tries. Tries conceded last year: 78. This year: 89.
The fourth-placed Sharks were slow starters this year and hadn't assembled the lethal combination that has been piling on the tries in the past seven weeks. Last year: 87 tries scored. This year: 92. Defence last year: 63 tries. This year: 77.
The Brisbane story isn't as grim as opponents would like it to be. Last year: 103 tries. This year: 102. Defence, though, is an issue. Last year: 53 tries. This year: 72.
One grand finalist stands out like a three-legged elephant playing hopscotch. Can you pick the other?
Oooops.
That will teach me for posting my plays at 1am in the morning !!!!
Early leans should read:
Parramatta -5.5 vs Bulldogs
Roosters -5.5 vs Melbourne
Anders,
Interesting write-up from Warren Ryan you posted there. He made some very valid points in relation to this season and also touched on the game as a whole. I think his comment "the game as we knew it no longer exists" sums it up nicely.
[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 08-08-2001).]
Interesting write-up from Warren Ryan you posted there. He made some very valid points in relation to this season and also touched on the game as a whole. I think his comment "the game as we knew it no longer exists" sums it up nicely.
[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 08-08-2001).]
I guess when you change two basic rules to the game affecting player fatigue then it is pretty easy to predict what is going to happen.
Took the bookies a fair while to catch up, and they are still having issues.
Took the bookies a fair while to catch up, and they are still having issues.
I am on Parramatta -5.5 in tonights game.
Should be an interesting matchup 1st vs 2nd and from what I hear they are expecting a sell out crowd.
Should be an interesting matchup 1st vs 2nd and from what I hear they are expecting a sell out crowd.
NRL Rd 23:
Game One) Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels, Sydney Showground
Bulldogs +4.5
It would take a braver man than me to predict the end of the Eels gravy train (15-7 ATS this season). While some are touting this as a possible Grand Final preview, I believe the home team tonight have possibly over-achieved to date. No such thing with the Eels - they have been simply phenomenal since April. And in their past four outings, for instance, they have averaged 49.5 pts for and just 11 against. The Bulldogs have also been hot, apart from a poor 8-34 away loss to the Warriors a fortnight ago. But they aren't as power-packed offensively as the Eels (26.75pts for in the last 4) and certainly can't match the Eels' defensive qualities (24 ppg conceded over the past four rounds). That's confirmed in the Missed Tackle stats - 27, 19, 12 and 26 for the Eels from rds 19-22; 18, 35, 40 and 33 for the Bulldogs over the same time frame. The Eels forwards also offload the ball a lot more than the more conservative smash-it-up Doggies pack, and it's this constant ball movement at pace that makes the Eels so sharp.
The total over/under, 46.5, is mouth-wateringly tempting in terms of the over when you consider that between the two sides in the past four rounds, the total points has averaged 55.63 pg (B'dogs 50.75, Eels a staggering 60.5). But I'll pass on the basis that this is a night match, the defensive intensity should be very high to the top-of-the-table nature of the clash and the possibility that the Eels can keep opponents to very low totals.
A couple of stats to note - Eels 5-3 ATS as road fave, Bulldogs yet to be a home dog this season.
A key aspect will be how the Doggies scrumhalf pairing of "Tricky" Trindall and Braith Anasta handle the big-match pressure. Trindall can run spectacularly hot or cold and while Anasta is certainly a great in the making, he's still very young. I'd rather have my money on the wily, in-form heads of Jason Taylor and Michael Buettner. Edge to the Eels bench to sways me to a play.
PLAY EELS -4.5
GLTA
Game One) Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels, Sydney Showground
Bulldogs +4.5
It would take a braver man than me to predict the end of the Eels gravy train (15-7 ATS this season). While some are touting this as a possible Grand Final preview, I believe the home team tonight have possibly over-achieved to date. No such thing with the Eels - they have been simply phenomenal since April. And in their past four outings, for instance, they have averaged 49.5 pts for and just 11 against. The Bulldogs have also been hot, apart from a poor 8-34 away loss to the Warriors a fortnight ago. But they aren't as power-packed offensively as the Eels (26.75pts for in the last 4) and certainly can't match the Eels' defensive qualities (24 ppg conceded over the past four rounds). That's confirmed in the Missed Tackle stats - 27, 19, 12 and 26 for the Eels from rds 19-22; 18, 35, 40 and 33 for the Bulldogs over the same time frame. The Eels forwards also offload the ball a lot more than the more conservative smash-it-up Doggies pack, and it's this constant ball movement at pace that makes the Eels so sharp.
The total over/under, 46.5, is mouth-wateringly tempting in terms of the over when you consider that between the two sides in the past four rounds, the total points has averaged 55.63 pg (B'dogs 50.75, Eels a staggering 60.5). But I'll pass on the basis that this is a night match, the defensive intensity should be very high to the top-of-the-table nature of the clash and the possibility that the Eels can keep opponents to very low totals.
A couple of stats to note - Eels 5-3 ATS as road fave, Bulldogs yet to be a home dog this season.
A key aspect will be how the Doggies scrumhalf pairing of "Tricky" Trindall and Braith Anasta handle the big-match pressure. Trindall can run spectacularly hot or cold and while Anasta is certainly a great in the making, he's still very young. I'd rather have my money on the wily, in-form heads of Jason Taylor and Michael Buettner. Edge to the Eels bench to sways me to a play.
PLAY EELS -4.5
GLTA
Just two more plays for the weekend in the NRL; as follows
Game Three)
Canberra Raiders v Penrith Panthers, Bruce Stadium
Raiders -5.5
A Play for the Raiders and against the Panthers. At home with less than a converted try spread, the Raiders are value here after a morale-boosting 29-10 road win over the Cowboys last weekend. The Raiders have been thumped by the Eels and Knights in recent weeks but no real shame in that and the return of Ruben Wiki gives them more oomph up front. The Panthers are a club in turmoil after constant stories this week focusing on the players' discontent with stalwart club man and current coach Royce Simmons. Not surprising as the 5-17 ATS Panthers blew a huge lead over the Warriors at home last week to lose 48-32. Their only high note in the past half-dozen rounds was a win over the slumping Roosters and they also lost to the Cowboys at home. Raiders are a shocking 1-6 as a home favourite but the Panthers are 1-7 as a road dog. Take the (marginally) better home team coming off a win with Brett Finch and Andrew McFadden finding plenty of holes in the leaky visiting defence.
PLAY RAIDERS -5.5
Game Six)
Northern Eagles v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Brookvale Oval
Eagles -10.5
Some temping totals in the late 40s for an over play this week but I think the linemakers had good reasons for setting them as such. So our sole total play for the weekend is an under.
The Eagles were almost a guaranteed over mid-season, given their dodgy defence and some offensive qualities. But lately their scoring ability has dried up badly, which may have something to do with Brett Kimmorley carrying an injury. In their last 4 rds, they've managed just 15.4 pts for (while conceding 25.2). They meet here an even more anaemic attacking side. The Cowboys have averaged just 11.6 pts for in their last 5 games (26 pts against). Both teams do miss a lot of tackles, but that often comes against quality attacking teams. The Eagles are prone to errors - double figures in all of their last six games - while the Cowboys rarely achieve a completion rate above 70%, are also mistake-prone - six double-digit tallies in their last 7 games - and struggle to break the line (3.5 per game over the last seven was summed up by drawing a blank v an Eels side with 12 men for 55 minutes in rd 21). With the biggest total of the weekend on offer, an under has tons of appeal.
PLAY UNDER 55.5
GLTA
Game Three)
Canberra Raiders v Penrith Panthers, Bruce Stadium
Raiders -5.5
A Play for the Raiders and against the Panthers. At home with less than a converted try spread, the Raiders are value here after a morale-boosting 29-10 road win over the Cowboys last weekend. The Raiders have been thumped by the Eels and Knights in recent weeks but no real shame in that and the return of Ruben Wiki gives them more oomph up front. The Panthers are a club in turmoil after constant stories this week focusing on the players' discontent with stalwart club man and current coach Royce Simmons. Not surprising as the 5-17 ATS Panthers blew a huge lead over the Warriors at home last week to lose 48-32. Their only high note in the past half-dozen rounds was a win over the slumping Roosters and they also lost to the Cowboys at home. Raiders are a shocking 1-6 as a home favourite but the Panthers are 1-7 as a road dog. Take the (marginally) better home team coming off a win with Brett Finch and Andrew McFadden finding plenty of holes in the leaky visiting defence.
PLAY RAIDERS -5.5
Game Six)
Northern Eagles v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Brookvale Oval
Eagles -10.5
Some temping totals in the late 40s for an over play this week but I think the linemakers had good reasons for setting them as such. So our sole total play for the weekend is an under.
The Eagles were almost a guaranteed over mid-season, given their dodgy defence and some offensive qualities. But lately their scoring ability has dried up badly, which may have something to do with Brett Kimmorley carrying an injury. In their last 4 rds, they've managed just 15.4 pts for (while conceding 25.2). They meet here an even more anaemic attacking side. The Cowboys have averaged just 11.6 pts for in their last 5 games (26 pts against). Both teams do miss a lot of tackles, but that often comes against quality attacking teams. The Eagles are prone to errors - double figures in all of their last six games - while the Cowboys rarely achieve a completion rate above 70%, are also mistake-prone - six double-digit tallies in their last 7 games - and struggle to break the line (3.5 per game over the last seven was summed up by drawing a blank v an Eels side with 12 men for 55 minutes in rd 21). With the biggest total of the weekend on offer, an under has tons of appeal.
PLAY UNDER 55.5
GLTA
Friday Night result:
Parramatta 24 Bulldogs 16
This was a very tight game and a last minute try to Parramatta saw them cover the spread for us. This will give Parramatta even more confidence as they head towards the finals but the Bulldogs showed they are going to be some hope at the end of the year.
Parramatta 24 Bulldogs 16
This was a very tight game and a last minute try to Parramatta saw them cover the spread for us. This will give Parramatta even more confidence as they head towards the finals but the Bulldogs showed they are going to be some hope at the end of the year.
Eric - while gloating over the Kenny Perry triumph, gotta ask - did u watch the Roosters / Storm game? How bizarre was that?
And how's a punter meant to stay sane
And how's a punter meant to stay sane
The Roosters/Storm game was crazy alright as were a couple of others this weekend.
The Warriors/Sharks game was unusual not only because they won 30-0 but due to 30 points being scored in the 1st half and 0 points being scored in the 2nd half.
The Tigers/Newcastle game was all over until one of the most unlikely comebacks you would ever see.
P.S.
Must get my moneys worth out of the Kenny Perry win because they don't come along too often !!!!
The Warriors/Sharks game was unusual not only because they won 30-0 but due to 30 points being scored in the 1st half and 0 points being scored in the 2nd half.
The Tigers/Newcastle game was all over until one of the most unlikely comebacks you would ever see.
P.S.
Must get my moneys worth out of the Kenny Perry win because they don't come along too often !!!!
Yep, some nutty ones alright; glad I went 2-1 in the end...
Missed the Warriors game cos I was covering the last game of the Waikato Titans' regular season NBL match. Caught glimpses of the Tigers' comeback while typing up my copy for PA and damn glad I wasn't on either of those two games - imagine being an Over punter on the Warriors/Sharks or being on the Knights covering the spread (or worse, a ML chalk)
Missed the Warriors game cos I was covering the last game of the Waikato Titans' regular season NBL match. Caught glimpses of the Tigers' comeback while typing up my copy for PA and damn glad I wasn't on either of those two games - imagine being an Over punter on the Warriors/Sharks or being on the Knights covering the spread (or worse, a ML chalk)
I was thinking the same thing after last weekend ....
But I'll no doubt get interested again when the lines go up for this weekend.
