NRL Round 24
- Thread starter Cartman88
- Start date
Anders' early leans:
Tigers +16.5
Cowboys +16.5
Still a lot o' looking to do though...
Another article from Wozza Ryan I thought was worth posting; may be of some help..
Play-offs hit and myth
By Warren Ryan
Let's clear up a few myths.
How many times have you heard a player say that his team is after a top-four spot so they can get a "second bite" in the semis?
Sorry boys! A top-four spot only guarantees a home semi, not a "second bite". You have to nail a top-two berth to ensure that you can't be knocked out in week one.
Furthermore, when week one of the semis is over, no team gets a second chance. If you are beaten at any stage after the first weekend, you can pull out the fishing gear.
And for those who still aren't quite sure how the eight-team system works, I hope this will help.
The rules applying in week one are that from Friday night through to Sunday afternoon, the games must be played in a strict firing order: Friday night (4 v 5), Saturday afternoon (3 v 6), Saturday night (2 v 7) then Sunday afternoon (1 v 8).
These four matches will identify the two highest-ranked winners, who go straight through to week three, and the two lowest-ranked losers, who are eliminated.
Now, if 2 beats 7 on the Saturday night and 1 beats 8 on the Sunday afternoon, everything is clear-cut. The top two are the highest-ranked and, having won, go straight through to week three. The bottom two are the two lowest-ranked and, having lost, bow out.
But players who talk about the top four getting a "second bite" are obviously unaware that if 8, 7, 6 and 5 all win their matches against 1, 2, 3 and 4, then 3 and 4 would be the lowest-ranked losers and would be gone. And teams 5 and 6 would be the highest-ranked winners straight through to week three.
Incidentally, the strict firing order is for very good reason. If 1 v 8 and 2 v 7 were the first two matches of the weekend, and 1 and 2 were victorious, we would have already established two teams for the walk through to week three and two for the heave-ho without needing to play 4 v 5 and 3 v 6.
Imagine the trick shots then. Teams 3, 4, 5 and 6 could field reserve-game teams, rest star players, forfeit altogether (only kidding). In any event, they know they'll be running around again next weekend in week two.
So the firing order has been cleverly designed to ensure that the two highest-ranked winners and two lowest-ranked losers aren't fully revealed until 1 has played 8 on the Sunday afternoon.
Another issue where the public has been confused or misled concerns diving into the field of play from the in-goal area to avoid having to do a line dropkick.
Last year it was agreed at a meeting of coaches and referees that it was not a voluntary tackle and was not to be interpreted as one by referees. Therefore it was not to be penalised.
An article by a Sydney league writer was brought to my intention by a former player who pointed out that the author of the article was obviously unaware of the difference between diving at the feet of would-be defenders to effect a fast play-the-ball and diving into the field of play to avoid being hammered into the in-goal area.
Well, not only is there an obvious difference in intent; there has been agreement by coaches and referees on that very clear difference.
The article had Bulldogs fullback Luke Patten as "the latest obvious offender", but refs boss Peter Louis reconfirmed as late as last week that it is not an offence.
Meanwhile, some great battles are looming this weekend. The Knights v St George at Marathon on Friday night and Sharks v Broncos at Shark Park on Sunday are standouts.
The Knights and Broncos both have work to do on their defence and both have had trouble with these opponents in the past.
In downing the Broncos at the weekend, the Dragons exhibited the enterprising attack and composed, efficient defence that characterised their march to the grand final from sixth spot in 1999.
The Broncos don't seem far off the money as far as application to the task is concerned, but developing some creative attack to trouble the Sharks' defence will be a hurdle after the injury to Kevin Walters.
The Newcastle Herald
Tigers +16.5
Cowboys +16.5
Still a lot o' looking to do though...
Another article from Wozza Ryan I thought was worth posting; may be of some help..
Play-offs hit and myth
By Warren Ryan
Let's clear up a few myths.
How many times have you heard a player say that his team is after a top-four spot so they can get a "second bite" in the semis?
Sorry boys! A top-four spot only guarantees a home semi, not a "second bite". You have to nail a top-two berth to ensure that you can't be knocked out in week one.
Furthermore, when week one of the semis is over, no team gets a second chance. If you are beaten at any stage after the first weekend, you can pull out the fishing gear.
And for those who still aren't quite sure how the eight-team system works, I hope this will help.
The rules applying in week one are that from Friday night through to Sunday afternoon, the games must be played in a strict firing order: Friday night (4 v 5), Saturday afternoon (3 v 6), Saturday night (2 v 7) then Sunday afternoon (1 v 8).
These four matches will identify the two highest-ranked winners, who go straight through to week three, and the two lowest-ranked losers, who are eliminated.
Now, if 2 beats 7 on the Saturday night and 1 beats 8 on the Sunday afternoon, everything is clear-cut. The top two are the highest-ranked and, having won, go straight through to week three. The bottom two are the two lowest-ranked and, having lost, bow out.
But players who talk about the top four getting a "second bite" are obviously unaware that if 8, 7, 6 and 5 all win their matches against 1, 2, 3 and 4, then 3 and 4 would be the lowest-ranked losers and would be gone. And teams 5 and 6 would be the highest-ranked winners straight through to week three.
Incidentally, the strict firing order is for very good reason. If 1 v 8 and 2 v 7 were the first two matches of the weekend, and 1 and 2 were victorious, we would have already established two teams for the walk through to week three and two for the heave-ho without needing to play 4 v 5 and 3 v 6.
Imagine the trick shots then. Teams 3, 4, 5 and 6 could field reserve-game teams, rest star players, forfeit altogether (only kidding). In any event, they know they'll be running around again next weekend in week two.
So the firing order has been cleverly designed to ensure that the two highest-ranked winners and two lowest-ranked losers aren't fully revealed until 1 has played 8 on the Sunday afternoon.
Another issue where the public has been confused or misled concerns diving into the field of play from the in-goal area to avoid having to do a line dropkick.
Last year it was agreed at a meeting of coaches and referees that it was not a voluntary tackle and was not to be interpreted as one by referees. Therefore it was not to be penalised.
An article by a Sydney league writer was brought to my intention by a former player who pointed out that the author of the article was obviously unaware of the difference between diving at the feet of would-be defenders to effect a fast play-the-ball and diving into the field of play to avoid being hammered into the in-goal area.
Well, not only is there an obvious difference in intent; there has been agreement by coaches and referees on that very clear difference.
The article had Bulldogs fullback Luke Patten as "the latest obvious offender", but refs boss Peter Louis reconfirmed as late as last week that it is not an offence.
Meanwhile, some great battles are looming this weekend. The Knights v St George at Marathon on Friday night and Sharks v Broncos at Shark Park on Sunday are standouts.
The Knights and Broncos both have work to do on their defence and both have had trouble with these opponents in the past.
In downing the Broncos at the weekend, the Dragons exhibited the enterprising attack and composed, efficient defence that characterised their march to the grand final from sixth spot in 1999.
The Broncos don't seem far off the money as far as application to the task is concerned, but developing some creative attack to trouble the Sharks' defence will be a hurdle after the injury to Kevin Walters.
The Newcastle Herald
Anders,
Nth Qld are still +18.5 ($1.90) with Sportodds which seems a great number. They are definately my bet of the round.
Nth Qld are still +18.5 ($1.90) with Sportodds which seems a great number. They are definately my bet of the round.
Cheers for the heads up bro...
Definitely worth a dabble at that number; I'd pegged that game around -11.5.
Cowboys 7-4 ATS as road dogs, Bulldogs 4-6-1 as home chalk (bought my overflowing folder to work with me today; no space in the paper means extra 'capping time
)
Definitely worth a dabble at that number; I'd pegged that game around -11.5.
Cowboys 7-4 ATS as road dogs, Bulldogs 4-6-1 as home chalk (bought my overflowing folder to work with me today; no space in the paper means extra 'capping time
Truth is - I'm actually a legend
LMFAO...
Have written four stories already today - two for today's paper, two for tomorrow and have a Page One piece pending.
But still plenty of time for Madjacks..
Secret - only sleep four hours a day (night)
Have written four stories already today - two for today's paper, two for tomorrow and have a Page One piece pending.
But still plenty of time for Madjacks..
Secret - only sleep four hours a day (night)
hey guys
have to agree - was looking at my email from davidsons, and saw cowboys 18.5
wtf? was my thought
they got injuries or sometthing?
not been too horrible recently I had thought?
then again me noticing NRL not necessarily good
have to agree - was looking at my email from davidsons, and saw cowboys 18.5
wtf? was my thought
they got injuries or sometthing?
not been too horrible recently I had thought?
then again me noticing NRL not necessarily good
so you saying one of your next door neighbour's kids can write Anders?
and you stayed up late watching footy replays?
way stuff going for me recently though cowboys will give up a penalty with 3 sec left
and you stayed up late watching footy replays?
way stuff going for me recently though cowboys will give up a penalty with 3 sec left
No play for tonight's Game One between the Newcastle Knights and the St George Illawarra Dragons.
Slight lean to the Dragons at +3.5 if you can get that after their performances in recent weeks but not pulling the trigger due to the absence of suspended skipper Craig Smith. From memory, the Dragons are 3-6 SU without Smith this year. Can't back the Knights without Johns, Buderus and Peden. Total - 48.5 - too hard to figure; Knights sometimes struggle offensively without Johns but their defence can be leaky too. Dragons defence has been nice and solid lately.
Back later with weekend plays.
GLTA
If you dont mind me asking Aussievamp2 who is davidson don't mean to pry was just curious that's all.
I am going to stick with the original plays I posted earlier in the week:
Roosters $1.90 vs Warriors
Brisbane $1.95 vs Sharks
North Qld +18.5 vs Bulldogs (2 units)
Good luck to all.
Roosters $1.90 vs Warriors
Brisbane $1.95 vs Sharks
North Qld +18.5 vs Bulldogs (2 units)
Good luck to all.
well, think 'the' guy is Hamish Davidson
the bookmaker, gloveski
seems they have started sending out a weekly odds email last couple of weeks
the bookmaker, gloveski
seems they have started sending out a weekly odds email last couple of weeks
Some info from the SMH...
How valuable is Andrew Johns to Newcastle? Simple: no Johns, no Newcastle. The Knights' win/loss/draw ratio over the past two seasons with halfback Johns on the field is 24-13-2. Without him it is 6 wins, 6 losses and no draws.
In other words, when Johns plays, Newcastle have twice as much chance of winning as losing. Without him, it's even money.
OK, tell me something new, you are entitled to ask. After all, Johns is widely regarded as the best rugby league player in the world, indeed, the finest playmaker of all the football codes, if you ask any Hunter Valley coalminer.
But National Rugby League statistics on the win/loss ratios of a range of high-profile players indicate some clubs have a greater chance of winning when the star is sidelined.
The data raises the question whether some very expensive players are worth the significant payments made under a salary cap the code can ill afford.
RYAN GIRDLER
The Panthers' record with the international centre is 14 wins, 26 losses and no draws. Without him, it is 7 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws. Penrith, therefore, lose twice as many games with him, while winning twice as many without him. The number of games Girdler has missed is not significant enough to establish that the Panthers fare better when he is unavailable, but the figures do raise some questions. Girdler is the Panthers' "go to" man, meaning the ball swoops continually to his left-hand side. Are Penrith too predictable with him, or does the opposition prepare better when he is in the team? Or does he concede more points than he scores? Girdler does not play in a position where he can influence the course of a game, as Johns can. On the other hand, he is a goal-kicker and presumably should have an impact on a match. For example, last week, without Girdler, Penrith defeated Canberra but had to score six tries to four to win. The Panthers finished fifth in 2000, when Girdler missed only four games, and are destined to receive the wooden spoon this year when he has been unavailable for seven games.
MAT ROGERS
The Sharks' win/loss/draw ratio with their international winger on the paddock is 11-14-0. Without him, it is 15-8-2. At first glance it would seem the 25-year-old's switch to rugby union is not a major loss for the Cronulla club. But Rogers played 23 of 27 games last year, when the Sharks had a poor season by their standards and finished in eighth place. This year, with Preston Campbell weaving his magic and the Sharks looking set to finish in the league's top four, Rogers has played only two of the 23 games. Still, like Girdler, he is a goal-kicker, meaning he should be adding to the points tally.
DAVID PEACHEY
Rogers's teammate has better figures, the Sharks winning 21 and losing 15 with him on the field. When the fullback is absent, the Sharks' record is 5-7-2. He has missed nine games this season and his importance to the team was further underlined when the Sharks won seven consecutive matches after he returned from a long injury in June. The run concluded last week - against the Warriors - when, surprise, surprise, Peachey was unavailable.
BRAD FITTLER
Sydney's record with their captain is 28-19-1. Without him, it is 2-3-0. The significant factor here is the small number of games Fittler has missed. The Roosters and representative coaches don't give Freddie a rest. He looks tired even when he speaks. Fittler plays 80 minutes of nearly every match he plays for club, State and country. He is a target of opposition ball-runners and, because he is five-eighth, leads the attack. Fittler may be earning $800,000 a year, meaning his payment a game is running at $33,333, but even the $1,000 he earns for each tackle represents a better return than that offered by many lower-paid players who miss more games. Fittler is obviously capable of playing when many can't. It would be ludicrous to assume he is injury-free each time he takes the field.
TRENT BARRETT
St George Illawarra's statistics are 21-20-2 with Barrett and 2-4-0 without. The games the five-eighth has missed do not represent a big sample but it's hard to escape the conclusion the Dragons are likely to lose twice as many games without him. He is in a key playing position and, because of his youth, is destined to play a major role in the club's future.
CRAIG SMITH
The suspended St George Illawarra prop has an even greater impact on his club's chances of winning, not a surprising statistic considering he is an aggressive front-rower. Smith's record is 19-15-1. Without him the Dragons have lost more than twice as many as they win: 4-9-1. The bad news is Smith is headed for Wigan. The good news is the Dragons had three victories and a draw during his previous five-match suspension, meaning they have started to learn to win without him.
STACEY JONES
When the Warriors playmaker is off the field, his team is a big chance of losing. The New Zealand club's record with him is 18-21-2 and without him it is 1-6-1. The Warriors have not had a back-up halfback, which is why they have bought Parramatta's PJ Marsh. Jones has missed only two games this year, but during one of his absences the Warriors were thrashed by the Broncos.
GORDEN TALLIS
Ah, brutal Gordie. Leave the best sadistic till last. The Bronco second-rower terrifies the opposition in the same manner as Leslie William Boyd. Brisbane are 25-5-3 with Tallis and 9-10-0 without. A player in a key position, with intimidation and skill, his absence since May20 has hurt the Broncos.
P.S. Note the absence of Parramatta and Bulldogs players from the above list. Both have been largely free of injury this year and, in the Eels' case, players have been rested and positions switched to the extent no-one is indispensable. Significantly, these clubs are first and second on the ladder.
How valuable is Andrew Johns to Newcastle? Simple: no Johns, no Newcastle. The Knights' win/loss/draw ratio over the past two seasons with halfback Johns on the field is 24-13-2. Without him it is 6 wins, 6 losses and no draws.
In other words, when Johns plays, Newcastle have twice as much chance of winning as losing. Without him, it's even money.
OK, tell me something new, you are entitled to ask. After all, Johns is widely regarded as the best rugby league player in the world, indeed, the finest playmaker of all the football codes, if you ask any Hunter Valley coalminer.
But National Rugby League statistics on the win/loss ratios of a range of high-profile players indicate some clubs have a greater chance of winning when the star is sidelined.
The data raises the question whether some very expensive players are worth the significant payments made under a salary cap the code can ill afford.
RYAN GIRDLER
The Panthers' record with the international centre is 14 wins, 26 losses and no draws. Without him, it is 7 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws. Penrith, therefore, lose twice as many games with him, while winning twice as many without him. The number of games Girdler has missed is not significant enough to establish that the Panthers fare better when he is unavailable, but the figures do raise some questions. Girdler is the Panthers' "go to" man, meaning the ball swoops continually to his left-hand side. Are Penrith too predictable with him, or does the opposition prepare better when he is in the team? Or does he concede more points than he scores? Girdler does not play in a position where he can influence the course of a game, as Johns can. On the other hand, he is a goal-kicker and presumably should have an impact on a match. For example, last week, without Girdler, Penrith defeated Canberra but had to score six tries to four to win. The Panthers finished fifth in 2000, when Girdler missed only four games, and are destined to receive the wooden spoon this year when he has been unavailable for seven games.
MAT ROGERS
The Sharks' win/loss/draw ratio with their international winger on the paddock is 11-14-0. Without him, it is 15-8-2. At first glance it would seem the 25-year-old's switch to rugby union is not a major loss for the Cronulla club. But Rogers played 23 of 27 games last year, when the Sharks had a poor season by their standards and finished in eighth place. This year, with Preston Campbell weaving his magic and the Sharks looking set to finish in the league's top four, Rogers has played only two of the 23 games. Still, like Girdler, he is a goal-kicker, meaning he should be adding to the points tally.
DAVID PEACHEY
Rogers's teammate has better figures, the Sharks winning 21 and losing 15 with him on the field. When the fullback is absent, the Sharks' record is 5-7-2. He has missed nine games this season and his importance to the team was further underlined when the Sharks won seven consecutive matches after he returned from a long injury in June. The run concluded last week - against the Warriors - when, surprise, surprise, Peachey was unavailable.
BRAD FITTLER
Sydney's record with their captain is 28-19-1. Without him, it is 2-3-0. The significant factor here is the small number of games Fittler has missed. The Roosters and representative coaches don't give Freddie a rest. He looks tired even when he speaks. Fittler plays 80 minutes of nearly every match he plays for club, State and country. He is a target of opposition ball-runners and, because he is five-eighth, leads the attack. Fittler may be earning $800,000 a year, meaning his payment a game is running at $33,333, but even the $1,000 he earns for each tackle represents a better return than that offered by many lower-paid players who miss more games. Fittler is obviously capable of playing when many can't. It would be ludicrous to assume he is injury-free each time he takes the field.
TRENT BARRETT
St George Illawarra's statistics are 21-20-2 with Barrett and 2-4-0 without. The games the five-eighth has missed do not represent a big sample but it's hard to escape the conclusion the Dragons are likely to lose twice as many games without him. He is in a key playing position and, because of his youth, is destined to play a major role in the club's future.
CRAIG SMITH
The suspended St George Illawarra prop has an even greater impact on his club's chances of winning, not a surprising statistic considering he is an aggressive front-rower. Smith's record is 19-15-1. Without him the Dragons have lost more than twice as many as they win: 4-9-1. The bad news is Smith is headed for Wigan. The good news is the Dragons had three victories and a draw during his previous five-match suspension, meaning they have started to learn to win without him.
STACEY JONES
When the Warriors playmaker is off the field, his team is a big chance of losing. The New Zealand club's record with him is 18-21-2 and without him it is 1-6-1. The Warriors have not had a back-up halfback, which is why they have bought Parramatta's PJ Marsh. Jones has missed only two games this year, but during one of his absences the Warriors were thrashed by the Broncos.
GORDEN TALLIS
Ah, brutal Gordie. Leave the best sadistic till last. The Bronco second-rower terrifies the opposition in the same manner as Leslie William Boyd. Brisbane are 25-5-3 with Tallis and 9-10-0 without. A player in a key position, with intimidation and skill, his absence since May20 has hurt the Broncos.
P.S. Note the absence of Parramatta and Bulldogs players from the above list. Both have been largely free of injury this year and, in the Eels' case, players have been rested and positions switched to the extent no-one is indispensable. Significantly, these clubs are first and second on the ladder.
Three games, three plays...
Game Two) NZ Warriors v Sydney Roosters, Ericsson Stadium
Warriors pick 'em
Two sides in the midst of little purple patches. The Warriors have a real sniff of their first ever playoffs appearance now after blanking the Sharks last weekend while wins over the Broncos and Storm have got the Roosters going again after a real mid-season slump.
Not keen on trying to pick the winner here but like the total at 49 points.
Weather forecast for Akl today is not great - rain easing to showers with winds around 40kph and temp around 9-10 celsius gives me a start towards the under. That grows stronger when you look at recent matches and stats. Both of the last two Warriors' home games played in similar conditions at night have been Unders - 30-0 v Sharks and 34-8 v Bulldogs. Their defence has strengthened lately - their Missed Tackles average in the low 20s over the past dozen games. And it seems to be at its best at home and at night. In their last four matches they have conceded an avg 19.25 pts. The Roosters have also picked up their defensive act of late - just 18 MT v Broncos and Storm, far fewer errors (5 and 7) and an improved Completion Rate.
Should be a tight encounter.
PLAY UNDER 49
Game Three) Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers, Parramatta Stadium
Eels -18
The juggernaut has to stop sometime right? Not that I for a minute think the Tigers will win tonite - the miracles ended last week after the game v the Knights - but I give them a real shot at covering the spread.
The Eels are simply unstoppable of late - 6-1 ATS in their last 7 matches; averaging 43 pts for and just 9.5 against in their last 4 outings. But today they rest record point-scorer and halfback Jason Taylor, meaning the kicking averages may not be quite as impressive and replacement PJ Marsh is more of an individual than Taylor, who sets up the backline rather than darting from the ruck area.
The Tigers, meanwhile have won 3 of their last 4, scoring 29 pts on avg in the process and while they won't get that against the parsimonious Eels, the return of Kevin McGuinness, Terry Hill and Owen Craigie at standoff have made the Tigers much more of an offensive threat. Their CR has been excellent in those last 4 games - 73%, 79%, 78%, 86% - along with their Error rate - 7, 7, 8, 6.
They stated in the press this week their intentions to push the Eels, who aim to celebrate clinching the minor premiership with a big win. Don't think the Tigers will completely spoil the party but they may well snatch some cake for us.
PLAY TIGERS +18
* see note at bottom
Game Four) Bulldogs v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Sydney Showground
Bulldogs +18.5
Another dog here with value, and I don't mean the home team. While the Cowboys are certainly nothing flash, the offer the punters better value than they do the fans. Cowboys are a respectable 11-12 ATS this season - compare that with other lowly teams like the Panthers (6-17 ATS) and the Raiders (9-14 ATS). Their best efforts for us bettors come on the road, where they are 7-4 ATS, all as a dog. They usually get big starts, like they do here, and are capable of covering.
The Bulldogs are nicely set for a top 4 finish but have struggled a little of late after beating the Broncos, going 1-2 SU since and scoring just 52 pts in those last 3 games. The Cowboys were humiliated 62-0 by the Eels but either side of that they've beaten the Dragons and Raiders at hoem and held the desperate Eagles to a draw on the road last weekend.
The Bulldogs are still guilty of missing far too many tackles - 35, 40, 33 and 45 in their last 4 games - and with Julian O'Neill at standoff they should score enough pts to keep this close enough to cover.
PLAY COWBOYS +18.5
GLTA
Forgot the note at the bottom
For those with a NZ TAB a/c; value here too I believe in a parlay..
Warriors by 1-12 pts/Eels by 1-12pts $14
Roosters by 1-12 pts/Eels by 1-12pts $13
Half-unit each
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 08-17-2001).]
Game Two) NZ Warriors v Sydney Roosters, Ericsson Stadium
Warriors pick 'em
Two sides in the midst of little purple patches. The Warriors have a real sniff of their first ever playoffs appearance now after blanking the Sharks last weekend while wins over the Broncos and Storm have got the Roosters going again after a real mid-season slump.
Not keen on trying to pick the winner here but like the total at 49 points.
Weather forecast for Akl today is not great - rain easing to showers with winds around 40kph and temp around 9-10 celsius gives me a start towards the under. That grows stronger when you look at recent matches and stats. Both of the last two Warriors' home games played in similar conditions at night have been Unders - 30-0 v Sharks and 34-8 v Bulldogs. Their defence has strengthened lately - their Missed Tackles average in the low 20s over the past dozen games. And it seems to be at its best at home and at night. In their last four matches they have conceded an avg 19.25 pts. The Roosters have also picked up their defensive act of late - just 18 MT v Broncos and Storm, far fewer errors (5 and 7) and an improved Completion Rate.
Should be a tight encounter.
PLAY UNDER 49
Game Three) Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers, Parramatta Stadium
Eels -18
The juggernaut has to stop sometime right? Not that I for a minute think the Tigers will win tonite - the miracles ended last week after the game v the Knights - but I give them a real shot at covering the spread.
The Eels are simply unstoppable of late - 6-1 ATS in their last 7 matches; averaging 43 pts for and just 9.5 against in their last 4 outings. But today they rest record point-scorer and halfback Jason Taylor, meaning the kicking averages may not be quite as impressive and replacement PJ Marsh is more of an individual than Taylor, who sets up the backline rather than darting from the ruck area.
The Tigers, meanwhile have won 3 of their last 4, scoring 29 pts on avg in the process and while they won't get that against the parsimonious Eels, the return of Kevin McGuinness, Terry Hill and Owen Craigie at standoff have made the Tigers much more of an offensive threat. Their CR has been excellent in those last 4 games - 73%, 79%, 78%, 86% - along with their Error rate - 7, 7, 8, 6.
They stated in the press this week their intentions to push the Eels, who aim to celebrate clinching the minor premiership with a big win. Don't think the Tigers will completely spoil the party but they may well snatch some cake for us.
PLAY TIGERS +18
* see note at bottom
Game Four) Bulldogs v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Sydney Showground
Bulldogs +18.5
Another dog here with value, and I don't mean the home team. While the Cowboys are certainly nothing flash, the offer the punters better value than they do the fans. Cowboys are a respectable 11-12 ATS this season - compare that with other lowly teams like the Panthers (6-17 ATS) and the Raiders (9-14 ATS). Their best efforts for us bettors come on the road, where they are 7-4 ATS, all as a dog. They usually get big starts, like they do here, and are capable of covering.
The Bulldogs are nicely set for a top 4 finish but have struggled a little of late after beating the Broncos, going 1-2 SU since and scoring just 52 pts in those last 3 games. The Cowboys were humiliated 62-0 by the Eels but either side of that they've beaten the Dragons and Raiders at hoem and held the desperate Eagles to a draw on the road last weekend.
The Bulldogs are still guilty of missing far too many tackles - 35, 40, 33 and 45 in their last 4 games - and with Julian O'Neill at standoff they should score enough pts to keep this close enough to cover.
PLAY COWBOYS +18.5
GLTA
Forgot the note at the bottom
For those with a NZ TAB a/c; value here too I believe in a parlay..
Warriors by 1-12 pts/Eels by 1-12pts $14
Roosters by 1-12 pts/Eels by 1-12pts $13
Half-unit each
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 08-17-2001).]
A good Saturday, going 3-0 and just missed the nice parlay. Two plays for Sunday...
Game Six) Sharks v Brisbane Broncos, Toyota Park
Sharks pick 'em
Should be a tremendous match-up, with action aplenty. Slight lean to the Sharks with David Peachey and Adam Dykes back from last weekend's blanking by the Warriors. But the Broncos looked last weekend in their narrow defeat v the in-form Dragons like they were just 80 minutes away from breaking their barren spell which has seen them lose an almost unfathomable four in a row.
Coach Wayne Bennett gave his troops another three-day break this week as he tries to keep them fresh for the upcoming playoffs, as his side has been battered lately. Halfback Shaun Berrigan will be better off after his return match v the Dragons and may be the spark to get the mercurial Broncos backline clicking.
Impossible to say how much the return of Peachey and Dykes gives to the home team - suffice to say it's an awful lot. Before they went scoreless in the rain and wet v the Warriors, they had scored 49, 22 and 40 points in their previous 3 matches v Knights, Roosters and Eagles with that duo and halfback Preston Campbell virtually unstoppable.
I've given up on the Broncos' defence getting back to normality - the ravages of the 2001 campaign (along with State of Origin) have simply taken its toll. Against strong attacking sides of late, they average 35 Missed Tackles per game.
Last time a fully fit Sharks met a fellow title contender on a mild Sydney Sunday afternoon, we saw 79 pts scored as they beat the Knights 49-30 in Rd 22. In similar conditions, look for the two behemoths to impose their attacking talents on each other, with a flurry of second-half points anticipated.
PLAY OVER 51.5
Game Seven) Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers, Colonial Stadium
Storm -10.5
The Storm will be desperate for maximum points after the Warriors win last night left them struggling to make the top eight. But with a game v the Warriors still to come, they aren't totally out of the running.
Expect them to take control here - if they can't dispatch of an understrength cellar dweller than they shouldn't be in the playoffs.
The Storm get centre Aaron Moule back to field their first choice line-ups (excluding the season-long injury to Scott Hill) but the Panthers are paper thin, without key centre Ryan Girdler and fielding an almost unrecognisable backline.
The Storm's defence has been awful of late and this may be a high-scoring affair. But with their big pack, the home team should have a notable advantage in possession and turn it into points against a side 2-7 ATS as a road dog.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM -10.5
GLTA
Game Six) Sharks v Brisbane Broncos, Toyota Park
Sharks pick 'em
Should be a tremendous match-up, with action aplenty. Slight lean to the Sharks with David Peachey and Adam Dykes back from last weekend's blanking by the Warriors. But the Broncos looked last weekend in their narrow defeat v the in-form Dragons like they were just 80 minutes away from breaking their barren spell which has seen them lose an almost unfathomable four in a row.
Coach Wayne Bennett gave his troops another three-day break this week as he tries to keep them fresh for the upcoming playoffs, as his side has been battered lately. Halfback Shaun Berrigan will be better off after his return match v the Dragons and may be the spark to get the mercurial Broncos backline clicking.
Impossible to say how much the return of Peachey and Dykes gives to the home team - suffice to say it's an awful lot. Before they went scoreless in the rain and wet v the Warriors, they had scored 49, 22 and 40 points in their previous 3 matches v Knights, Roosters and Eagles with that duo and halfback Preston Campbell virtually unstoppable.
I've given up on the Broncos' defence getting back to normality - the ravages of the 2001 campaign (along with State of Origin) have simply taken its toll. Against strong attacking sides of late, they average 35 Missed Tackles per game.
Last time a fully fit Sharks met a fellow title contender on a mild Sydney Sunday afternoon, we saw 79 pts scored as they beat the Knights 49-30 in Rd 22. In similar conditions, look for the two behemoths to impose their attacking talents on each other, with a flurry of second-half points anticipated.
PLAY OVER 51.5
Game Seven) Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers, Colonial Stadium
Storm -10.5
The Storm will be desperate for maximum points after the Warriors win last night left them struggling to make the top eight. But with a game v the Warriors still to come, they aren't totally out of the running.
Expect them to take control here - if they can't dispatch of an understrength cellar dweller than they shouldn't be in the playoffs.
The Storm get centre Aaron Moule back to field their first choice line-ups (excluding the season-long injury to Scott Hill) but the Panthers are paper thin, without key centre Ryan Girdler and fielding an almost unrecognisable backline.
The Storm's defence has been awful of late and this may be a high-scoring affair. But with their big pack, the home team should have a notable advantage in possession and turn it into points against a side 2-7 ATS as a road dog.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM -10.5
GLTA
Slightly disappointed with my NRL picks going 1-2 but with North Qld being a 2 unit play I basically ended up even for the weekend.
Nice going so far Anders and I might yet join you with Melbourne -10.5 against Penrith.
Nice going so far Anders and I might yet join you with Melbourne -10.5 against Penrith.
Cheers Eric
The intangible is how they react to their position re the playoffs after today's games.
Hard work to make the eight but while they still have a shot with three wins I think they'll go all out tomorrow.
GL with the golf - I've got Dangerous Dave and Phat Phil still alive so will be watching closely
The intangible is how they react to their position re the playoffs after today's games.
Hard work to make the eight but while they still have a shot with three wins I think they'll go all out tomorrow.
GL with the golf - I've got Dangerous Dave and Phat Phil still alive so will be watching closely
Well, this changes things a little
Girdler on deck as Panthers front weakening Storm
By Steve Mascord
Penrith's chances of tonight ending Melbourne's 2001 premiership campaign have skyrocketed with the Storm losing winger Marcus Bai, centre Aaron Moule and prop Rodney Howe to injury.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have taken centre Ryan Girdler to Melbourne and have pencilled him in for a previously unscheduled comeback, in the return of Monday Night Football.
The Storm must win all their remaining games and hope other results go their way to make the play-offs, and until the late changes were announced they looked good things to make a winning start to that task against the struggling Panthers at Colonial Stadium.
Bai and Howe have knee injuries, Moule an ankle problem. International lock Scott Hill, however, has been cleared to make a return after six games out with knee ligament damage. He was not named in coach Mark Murray's original side.
"It's that time of the year where injuries can hit you and we just have to do the best we can in difficult circumstances," Murray said.
Fijian World Cup winger Sam Tadulala makes his debut in place of Bai, Tasesa Lavea plays in the unfamiliar centre position for Moule and Peter Robinson starts for Howe. Ben Roarty gets a reprieve after being demoted from the nominated bench. He is joined by Russell Bawden, Henry Perenara and Hill.
While Girdler is likely to get the all-clear to return from a buttock injury, second-rower Matt Adamson (knee) and centre Chris Hicks (broken knuckle) pulled up sore after training yesterday. Coach Royce Simmons travelled to Melbourne with 19 players.
Aside from Girdler, prop Duncan MacGillivray and halfback Matthew Rodwell have been added to the original 16-man squad.
Murray, meanwhile, was unconcerned yesterday by comments from hooker Richard Swain which suggested all was not well in the Melbourne camp.
Swain told Auckland's Sunday News: "We've lost that team unity we had in 1999. It's pretty hard to get that back. It's not something you can train back into a club.
"You don't really have to like each other off the field to play well together."
Murray said: "Richard is a pretty genuine sort of guy and he is just frustrated like a lot of us. He's our best player each week and always gives 100 per cent.
"The players are a pretty tight bunch and get on well. You'd have to ask Richard what he means with regard to that."
Teams for the match tonight, kick-off at 7.35pm, are:
Melbourne: Robbie Ross; Fafita Moala, Tasesa Lavea, Steve Bell, Sam Tadulala; Matt Geyer, Matt Orford; Danny Williams, Stephen Kearney, Matt Rua, Peter Robinson, Richard Swain, Robbie Kearns (c). Res: Russell Bawden, Ben Roarty, Henry Perenara, Scott Hill.
Penrith (possible): Brett Atkinson; Matthew Rieck, Andrew Hinson, Ryan Girdler, Martin O'Connell; Steve Carter (c), Ben Reynolds; Scott Sattler, Matt Adamson, Tony Puletua, Frank Puletua, Craig Gower, Craig Greenhill. Res: Carl MacNamara, John Cross, Duncan MacGillivray.
Referee: Steve Clark.
Girdler on deck as Panthers front weakening Storm
By Steve Mascord
Penrith's chances of tonight ending Melbourne's 2001 premiership campaign have skyrocketed with the Storm losing winger Marcus Bai, centre Aaron Moule and prop Rodney Howe to injury.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have taken centre Ryan Girdler to Melbourne and have pencilled him in for a previously unscheduled comeback, in the return of Monday Night Football.
The Storm must win all their remaining games and hope other results go their way to make the play-offs, and until the late changes were announced they looked good things to make a winning start to that task against the struggling Panthers at Colonial Stadium.
Bai and Howe have knee injuries, Moule an ankle problem. International lock Scott Hill, however, has been cleared to make a return after six games out with knee ligament damage. He was not named in coach Mark Murray's original side.
"It's that time of the year where injuries can hit you and we just have to do the best we can in difficult circumstances," Murray said.
Fijian World Cup winger Sam Tadulala makes his debut in place of Bai, Tasesa Lavea plays in the unfamiliar centre position for Moule and Peter Robinson starts for Howe. Ben Roarty gets a reprieve after being demoted from the nominated bench. He is joined by Russell Bawden, Henry Perenara and Hill.
While Girdler is likely to get the all-clear to return from a buttock injury, second-rower Matt Adamson (knee) and centre Chris Hicks (broken knuckle) pulled up sore after training yesterday. Coach Royce Simmons travelled to Melbourne with 19 players.
Aside from Girdler, prop Duncan MacGillivray and halfback Matthew Rodwell have been added to the original 16-man squad.
Murray, meanwhile, was unconcerned yesterday by comments from hooker Richard Swain which suggested all was not well in the Melbourne camp.
Swain told Auckland's Sunday News: "We've lost that team unity we had in 1999. It's pretty hard to get that back. It's not something you can train back into a club.
"You don't really have to like each other off the field to play well together."
Murray said: "Richard is a pretty genuine sort of guy and he is just frustrated like a lot of us. He's our best player each week and always gives 100 per cent.
"The players are a pretty tight bunch and get on well. You'd have to ask Richard what he means with regard to that."
Teams for the match tonight, kick-off at 7.35pm, are:
Melbourne: Robbie Ross; Fafita Moala, Tasesa Lavea, Steve Bell, Sam Tadulala; Matt Geyer, Matt Orford; Danny Williams, Stephen Kearney, Matt Rua, Peter Robinson, Richard Swain, Robbie Kearns (c). Res: Russell Bawden, Ben Roarty, Henry Perenara, Scott Hill.
Penrith (possible): Brett Atkinson; Matthew Rieck, Andrew Hinson, Ryan Girdler, Martin O'Connell; Steve Carter (c), Ben Reynolds; Scott Sattler, Matt Adamson, Tony Puletua, Frank Puletua, Craig Gower, Craig Greenhill. Res: Carl MacNamara, John Cross, Duncan MacGillivray.
Referee: Steve Clark.
