Hi y'all. Nice to be back - still short of full fitness but nothing that won't stop me from geting some picks done for all the good folk at MJs. Thanx for all your kind thoughts and particularly AzRusty for his wonderful present. Big card this weekend; let's get cracking.
Overall this season (AFL, NRL, Super 12): 43-33 (56.58%), 1-0 ML
AFL:
Season to Date - 7-3 (70%); 1-0 ML (+1.9 units)
Fri: Richmond pk 'em
Sat: Bulldogs +10.5 and ML +130
Sun: Sydney +14.5
While the Eagles got a cover for me last weekend they weren't wholly impressive v lowly Fremantle. While tough at home, they may struggle to match-up against a Richmond side which has looked good early, particularly in the way they bounced back from the controversial loss to the Bulldogs and I think they can sneak one in Perth.
Going for the 'dogs to get my second ML win of the year. They've been a little up and down but are good value at +10.5 to become the first team to beat Hawthorn this season, so will play ML and hedge with the points start.
Last one of the weekend will be a road dog. Again, seeking value and believe the Swans offer it - sure they were thumped by the Bombers but that was always going to happen as the champion Essendon side sought retribution from their shock loss v Carlton. Otherwise, their form has been solid while the Demons haven't looked great shakes.
NRL:
Season to Date - 18-20 (47.37%)
After a couple of rough weeks the % has dropped alarmingly - 10% from 57 a fortnight ago. Real killer to lose 2 pick 'ems by a combined 3 pts last weekend so we're looking to bounce back with a modicum of good fortune due to return a favour.
Not playing the Broncos (-11.5) v Sharks match tonite; line looks about right and should be a great game to watch.
Sat (DU time):
Game 3) Northern Eagles v Canberra Raiders, Gosford NSW, 19:05 CST
Eagles pick 'em.
Hope y'all sitting down for this one 'cos I'm playing the Eagles
Dat's right, first time this season after blowing them off so often here. So why the change of heart? Well, not just the fact the Raiders lost at Penrith last weekend. But they do appear somewhat rudderless at present. There is experience in the forward pack but not a lot of veteran guidance in the backline, which negates their scoring potential - something we desperately need against the porous Eagles defence. No such problems for the Eagles with Kimmorley at the helm. And their comeback win - admittedly in a poor quality match - on the road v the Cowboys last weekend would have finally boosted spirits. At home, they offer some value to nab a tight win v the Raiders, who are 0-4 SU as road dogs.
PLAY NORTHERN EAGLES PICK 'EM
Game 4) St George Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights, Sydney Football Stadium, 19:05 CST
Dragons +6.5
Will go against the home dog trend here (and will do it again later too!). The Dragons, after a brief surge, have hit rock bottom in recent weeks and were destroyed by the Broncos last weekend. And while +6.5 pts is a nice home start, the Knights continue to beat up the books no matter where they are. They killed the Tigers 56-6 last weekend to notch up a phenomenal 8-2 ATS record to date; 4-1 home, 4-1 road. The Dragons will continue to miss their two inspirational figures in Trent Barrett and Craig Smith while the Knights have a host of hot hands. Haven't often played the Knights this season and have missed a sizeable wad of cash because of it - hoping I'm not jumping on the gravy train too late here but the gulf in class is large.
PLAY NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS -6.5
Sun (DU) time:
Game 6) Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm, Penrith, 13:35 CST
Panthers pick 'em
Seems the 4-6 ATS Storm have jumped past the Sharks as my latest darlings! Third week in a row I'll play them after they demolished the Eagles at home and then had the Roosters on the rack before letting them squeak out a last-gasp field goal win. Like mentioned previousy, they're a different side under the new coach and beginning to realise the top 8 is a definitely achievable goal. The Panthers improved their defence to upset the Raiders at home last weekend but I'm not sold on one performance. The shocking weather probably had a lot to do with how Canberra failed to break through after dominating the first 20 minutes and it's interesting to note how the 3-7 ATS Panthers' best efforts have been in the wet - may pay to check the Sydney weather on Sunday. But if it were a forward battle, I'd still fancy the chances of the big Storm pack.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM PICK 'EM
Game 7) Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels, Leichardt Oval, 13:35 CST
Tigers +5.5
My second go-against the home dog - who are 8-10-2 SU this season and 12-8 ATS. Again, backing class v a down-and-out side. The Eels need to avoid the tardy start which cost them victory over the Bulldogs but should get some vital ingredients for success back in the shape of Jason Taylor - backline organisation and high-percentage goalkicking. The Eels are due to run up a big score shortly and must fancy their chances of doing so v the poor defence of the Tigers at the back and out wide.
PLAY PARRAMATTA EELS -5.5
Super 12:
Season to Date: 18-10 (64.29%)
* Beware the start time of the Stormers v Chiefs match; starts early Sat morning NZ time so will require those playing the game to wager tonight.
Sat (DU) time:
Game 2) Stormers v Chiefs, Newlands, 2:40 CST.
Stormers -7.5
Hard to judge the intangible on this one - motivation. The 3-5 ATS Stormers are out of the playoff reckoning while the Chiefs still have a shot. But in the era of pro rugby, with players eyeing contracts for next season and national team jerseys, I don't think the Stormers will come out uninterested. They were shocked by the Blues last weekend but the previous weekend thumped the Crusaders. The 5-3 ATS Chiefs held on to beat the Bulls after racing to a huge lead but may struggle with squad depth in their second match in South Africa. They will find it hard up front with an understrength front row and while many have been impressed with the Chiefs' defence this season, it has been absent at key times and notably on the road. Expect an open match allowing the opportunity for a late Stormers cover if the Chiefs get too adventurous chasing a much-needed victory late.
PLAY STORMERS -7.5
Game 3) Crusaders v Sharks, Christchurch, 17:05 CST
Crusaders -3.5
Again, backing a team out of playoff contention v one almost certain to make the final four. The Sharks have been on the road for a month now and may be looking for home, where they should seal a home semi berth in remaining weeks. The 3-5 ATS Crusaders have the barest of mathematical chances of making the semis but will simply be out to prove they are still a quality side after last weekend's one-point heartbreaker v the Cats. They had so much territory and possession that it was astounding they went down and will have worked all week on execution. The 7-2 ATS Sharks started with a hiss and a roar v the Reds before fading after 30 minutes, when some of their limitations were exposed.
PLAY CANTERBURY CRUSADERS -3.5
Game 4) Queensland Reds v Cats, Brisbane, 19:05 CST
Reds -2.5
Too much value in this line not to take a hit. I don't like the Reds - they play ugly football but they're the punters' friends at 6-2 ATS. They're also 2-0 ATS and SU as home chalks and are very much alive for the playoffs, with a friendly looking run in. They should also be improved on last weekend's useful win after a short week following a return from SA. The Cats somehow pipped the Crusaders and have a little more flair than the Sharks but their bodies took a hammering anfd this match present us with the identical situation to last week - the Reds home v a SA team delighted with two road wins in NZ. Cats may be already eyeing their last match v the Bulls in SA as their playoff clincher.
PLAY QUEENSLAND REDS -2.5
Sun (DU) time:
* - Again, note time, game starts early Sun am NZ time so will require bet to be placed Sat night (DU time).
Game 5) Bulls v Auckland Blues, Pretoria, 22:30 CST
Bulls +4.5
Our first home dog of the Super 12 weekend - home dogs 6-2 ATS this season - and I'm leaping at it! The Bulls are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS but came close to nabbing the Chiefs with a late surge last weekend after a shocking start. Coach Phil Pretorius has again fiddled with his wafer-thin squad but the changes up front and in the backline should improve the Bulls. The 2-6 ATS Blues shocked the Stormers last weekend but have otherwise been forgettable this season. With openside flier Matua Parkinson out injured, they are the perfect fodder for the hungry Bulls. Rookie first five James Arlidge continues to impress with his maturity but the high veldt won't offer the visitors any favours.
PLAY BULLS +4.5
GLTA
Overall this season (AFL, NRL, Super 12): 43-33 (56.58%), 1-0 ML
AFL:
Season to Date - 7-3 (70%); 1-0 ML (+1.9 units)
Fri: Richmond pk 'em
Sat: Bulldogs +10.5 and ML +130
Sun: Sydney +14.5
While the Eagles got a cover for me last weekend they weren't wholly impressive v lowly Fremantle. While tough at home, they may struggle to match-up against a Richmond side which has looked good early, particularly in the way they bounced back from the controversial loss to the Bulldogs and I think they can sneak one in Perth.
Going for the 'dogs to get my second ML win of the year. They've been a little up and down but are good value at +10.5 to become the first team to beat Hawthorn this season, so will play ML and hedge with the points start.
Last one of the weekend will be a road dog. Again, seeking value and believe the Swans offer it - sure they were thumped by the Bombers but that was always going to happen as the champion Essendon side sought retribution from their shock loss v Carlton. Otherwise, their form has been solid while the Demons haven't looked great shakes.
NRL:
Season to Date - 18-20 (47.37%)
After a couple of rough weeks the % has dropped alarmingly - 10% from 57 a fortnight ago. Real killer to lose 2 pick 'ems by a combined 3 pts last weekend so we're looking to bounce back with a modicum of good fortune due to return a favour.
Not playing the Broncos (-11.5) v Sharks match tonite; line looks about right and should be a great game to watch.
Sat (DU time):
Game 3) Northern Eagles v Canberra Raiders, Gosford NSW, 19:05 CST
Eagles pick 'em.
Hope y'all sitting down for this one 'cos I'm playing the Eagles
PLAY NORTHERN EAGLES PICK 'EM
Game 4) St George Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights, Sydney Football Stadium, 19:05 CST
Dragons +6.5
Will go against the home dog trend here (and will do it again later too!). The Dragons, after a brief surge, have hit rock bottom in recent weeks and were destroyed by the Broncos last weekend. And while +6.5 pts is a nice home start, the Knights continue to beat up the books no matter where they are. They killed the Tigers 56-6 last weekend to notch up a phenomenal 8-2 ATS record to date; 4-1 home, 4-1 road. The Dragons will continue to miss their two inspirational figures in Trent Barrett and Craig Smith while the Knights have a host of hot hands. Haven't often played the Knights this season and have missed a sizeable wad of cash because of it - hoping I'm not jumping on the gravy train too late here but the gulf in class is large.
PLAY NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS -6.5
Sun (DU) time:
Game 6) Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm, Penrith, 13:35 CST
Panthers pick 'em
Seems the 4-6 ATS Storm have jumped past the Sharks as my latest darlings! Third week in a row I'll play them after they demolished the Eagles at home and then had the Roosters on the rack before letting them squeak out a last-gasp field goal win. Like mentioned previousy, they're a different side under the new coach and beginning to realise the top 8 is a definitely achievable goal. The Panthers improved their defence to upset the Raiders at home last weekend but I'm not sold on one performance. The shocking weather probably had a lot to do with how Canberra failed to break through after dominating the first 20 minutes and it's interesting to note how the 3-7 ATS Panthers' best efforts have been in the wet - may pay to check the Sydney weather on Sunday. But if it were a forward battle, I'd still fancy the chances of the big Storm pack.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM PICK 'EM
Game 7) Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels, Leichardt Oval, 13:35 CST
Tigers +5.5
My second go-against the home dog - who are 8-10-2 SU this season and 12-8 ATS. Again, backing class v a down-and-out side. The Eels need to avoid the tardy start which cost them victory over the Bulldogs but should get some vital ingredients for success back in the shape of Jason Taylor - backline organisation and high-percentage goalkicking. The Eels are due to run up a big score shortly and must fancy their chances of doing so v the poor defence of the Tigers at the back and out wide.
PLAY PARRAMATTA EELS -5.5
Super 12:
Season to Date: 18-10 (64.29%)
* Beware the start time of the Stormers v Chiefs match; starts early Sat morning NZ time so will require those playing the game to wager tonight.
Sat (DU) time:
Game 2) Stormers v Chiefs, Newlands, 2:40 CST.
Stormers -7.5
Hard to judge the intangible on this one - motivation. The 3-5 ATS Stormers are out of the playoff reckoning while the Chiefs still have a shot. But in the era of pro rugby, with players eyeing contracts for next season and national team jerseys, I don't think the Stormers will come out uninterested. They were shocked by the Blues last weekend but the previous weekend thumped the Crusaders. The 5-3 ATS Chiefs held on to beat the Bulls after racing to a huge lead but may struggle with squad depth in their second match in South Africa. They will find it hard up front with an understrength front row and while many have been impressed with the Chiefs' defence this season, it has been absent at key times and notably on the road. Expect an open match allowing the opportunity for a late Stormers cover if the Chiefs get too adventurous chasing a much-needed victory late.
PLAY STORMERS -7.5
Game 3) Crusaders v Sharks, Christchurch, 17:05 CST
Crusaders -3.5
Again, backing a team out of playoff contention v one almost certain to make the final four. The Sharks have been on the road for a month now and may be looking for home, where they should seal a home semi berth in remaining weeks. The 3-5 ATS Crusaders have the barest of mathematical chances of making the semis but will simply be out to prove they are still a quality side after last weekend's one-point heartbreaker v the Cats. They had so much territory and possession that it was astounding they went down and will have worked all week on execution. The 7-2 ATS Sharks started with a hiss and a roar v the Reds before fading after 30 minutes, when some of their limitations were exposed.
PLAY CANTERBURY CRUSADERS -3.5
Game 4) Queensland Reds v Cats, Brisbane, 19:05 CST
Reds -2.5
Too much value in this line not to take a hit. I don't like the Reds - they play ugly football but they're the punters' friends at 6-2 ATS. They're also 2-0 ATS and SU as home chalks and are very much alive for the playoffs, with a friendly looking run in. They should also be improved on last weekend's useful win after a short week following a return from SA. The Cats somehow pipped the Crusaders and have a little more flair than the Sharks but their bodies took a hammering anfd this match present us with the identical situation to last week - the Reds home v a SA team delighted with two road wins in NZ. Cats may be already eyeing their last match v the Bulls in SA as their playoff clincher.
PLAY QUEENSLAND REDS -2.5
Sun (DU) time:
* - Again, note time, game starts early Sun am NZ time so will require bet to be placed Sat night (DU time).
Game 5) Bulls v Auckland Blues, Pretoria, 22:30 CST
Bulls +4.5
Our first home dog of the Super 12 weekend - home dogs 6-2 ATS this season - and I'm leaping at it! The Bulls are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS but came close to nabbing the Chiefs with a late surge last weekend after a shocking start. Coach Phil Pretorius has again fiddled with his wafer-thin squad but the changes up front and in the backline should improve the Bulls. The 2-6 ATS Blues shocked the Stormers last weekend but have otherwise been forgettable this season. With openside flier Matua Parkinson out injured, they are the perfect fodder for the hungry Bulls. Rookie first five James Arlidge continues to impress with his maturity but the high veldt won't offer the visitors any favours.
PLAY BULLS +4.5
GLTA
