NRL/Super 12 Fri (Down Under time) picks

[Anders]

Gee, been quiet in here lately ...

NRL:

Season to Date: 12-9 (57.14%)

Game 1) The Bulldogs v Brisbane Broncos, SFS, 19:05CST
Bulldogs $1.75 ML

Both teams are coming off contrasting defeats from last weekend. The Bulldogs suffered their first loss of the season when thumped 38-12 by the Roosters while the Broncos were pipped 13-12 on the road by the NZ Warriors. While the Bulldogs certainly didn't lie down v the Tigers, they were eventually done in by their missed tackles (25). This has been the achilles heel of the Bulldogs who are still a very handy 4-2 ATS. They average 31 missed tackles per match, compared with just 18 missed by their opponents. The Broncos, in contrast, pride themselves on their defence - averaging just 17 missed tackles per game, the best mark in the competition. The Broncos will welcome back fullback Darren Lockyer and standoff Scott Prince this weekend - Lockyer missed the Warriors' match with concussion while Prince attended his father's funeral after he was killed in a car crash. They will be without skipper Gorden Tallis, serving his second week of a three-week suspension, but Prince's return is vital after Ben Ikin was ruled out for the season with a knee injury last week. Prince may play halfback with Shaun Berrigan moving to standoff. The value here is with the visitors despite their 0-3 record as a road cover. This is only the second match in six in which the defending champs have been underdogs (their other was a loss SU and ATS v the Eels in an quality see-saw match). Coach Wayne Bennett will be desperate for his players to score a road win and to define their title credentials after last weekend's loss and Prince's situation may give them some inspiration v the Bulldogs, who are playing on five days' rest (compared to the Broncos' six) after last Sunday's loss in sapping conditions. In a virtual pick 'em, it should pay to ...
PLAY BRONCOS $2.05 ML
(Have to excuse me, still battling to fathom the +/- ML figures used - $100 on the Broncos will return $205)

Super 12:

Season to Date: 11-4 (73.33%)

Game 1) Chiefs v Highlanders, Rotorua Stadium, 17:05 CST
Chiefs $1.75 ML

The Chiefs are aiming for their third consecutive win SU and ATS at home. They upset most pundits (but not us at Madjacks) when they beat the Blues 34-16 as a home dog a fortnight ago and are off the bye for Rd 6. The Highlanders (3-2 ATS) beat the Bulls SU and ATS last week at home but are 0-2 SU on the road (both games were in Sth Africa). The Chiefs have received brighter news on the injury front with the likes of halfback Rhys Duggan, second-five Scott McLeod and first-five David Hill back but they will start on the bench, while the Highlanders bring back superstar winger/fullback Jeff Wilson (from injury) and first-five Tony Brown (dropped last weekend) into their starting 15. Very little between these two teams.
NO PLAY

Back tomorrow with more.

GLTA

 

[Anders]

Adding....(almost forgot this match was a Friday night one; sorry, it's been that kind of week). Kicks off in 90 minutes.
Super 12)

Game 2: Queensland Reds v ACT Brumbies, Brisbane, 19:05 CST
Reds +5.5

As we saw last Friday, the Reds covered the
+9.5 spread in their 5th rd match against the Crusaders thanks to a late try in the SU loss to the home team. It left them 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS and they are back home after three road losses in New Zealand (v the Chiefs, Blues and Crusaders). They won their only home match this season v the Hurricanes 27-18, also covering the spread as -5.5 home chalks. The Brumbies stormed home late in the show against the Stormers last Saturday to win 40-25 after being down 25-20 midway through the second spell. That gave us the -10.5 cover as the Brumbies, pre-season Super 12 favourites, improved their record to 3-2 ATS and 4-1 SU. While the Reds have done well against the spread, their performances have been faltering and for the most part against a Crusaders side which dominated but never reached top gear, they were awful, committing a host of errors while being outgunned up front. They lost first-five Elton Flatley to injury and while replacement Nathan Spooner replicated Flatley's accuracy goalkicking, his general play was abysmal and the Reds' backline wasn't a force. Flatley remains out for tonight's game, while the Reds still haven't recovered from their biggest injury blow - the continued absence of lock and skipper John Eales. On the contrary, Eales' felIow Australian World Cup-winner Stephen Larkham made his much-awaited return to the Super 12 from injury against the Stormers and despite a little ring-rustiness looked ready for a strong second half of the season. His presence will take a wealth of pressure off halfback George Gregan, who looked back to his annoying, chirpy best last week. If the Brumbies can get on a roll with possession and continuous phases of play, they have far too much class for the Reds.
PLAY BRUMBIES -5.5