Work and family commitments prevent me from giving full write-ups for all games - I'm restricted to providing details on the games I'm recommending plays.
Super 12:
Game 2) Canterbury Crusaders v Chiefs, Jade Stadium, Canterbury, 16:05 CST
Crusaders -7.5 ($1.90Aus); Chiefs +7.5
The three-times defending champion Crusaders have lost their first two SU and with a bye next weekend, realise that another defeat today would leave them with a monstrous task to make the semis even at such an early stage. The good news for the champions is that No10 Andrew Mehrtens will be back on the bench - Nathan Mauger continues to start - while fellow All Black Norm Maxwell (lock) is also back from injury and on the reserve bench. An added bonus is that Ben Blair will start at fullback, with his goalkicking maybe worth an extra 6-8 points - which is obviously vital to the spread. The Chiefs will be without second-five Scott McLeod and in-form lock Mark Cooksley through injury, while Andrew Hore will debut at hooker for the Crusaders and Afato So'oalo expected to start on the wing in place of fellow speedster Marika Vunibaka. I believe there are some key factors to facilitate a play on the Crusaders. They will have been stung by their two losses; particular last weekend against the Blues when they were the better side in an ugly match. I expect them to dominate possession and should have a distinct advantage over the Chiefs in the scrum and after scoring just one try in their opening two matches, will aim to find the tryline with far more regularity on their first home match. A key note here is the IRB's announced intention to ease up on the tough rulings on the "tackled ball" law, which should allow quicker ball and more room for backs to exploit starting this weekend. The Chiefs pipped the Reds at home last weekend in a scrappy match with Glen Jackson kicking 7 out of 7, but he is an inconsistent performer and may struggle on the road behind a forward pack going backwards. The home team rules this match-up too throughout the history of the Super 12. Crusaders need this badly and should get it.
PLAY CRUSADERS -7.5
Game 3) NSW Waratahs v Bulls, Sydney FS, 18:05 CST
Waratahs -14.5 ($1.85Aus); Bulls +14.5 ($1.95)
Waratahs are on fire early and demolished the Stormers last weekend after doing the same to the Chiefs in week one. But the Bulls covered as big dogs v the disorganised Hurricanes last weekend and are a gutsy outfit. Home team should win well but I wonder if they can get any better.
NO PLAY
NRL:
Game 2) Brisbane Broncos v West Tigers, ANZ Stadium, Brisbane, 19:30 CST
Broncos -11.5 ($1.85Aus); Tigers +11.5 ($1.95)
Broncos covered a DD spread at home in their first match v the Panthers but the Tigers did it fairly easy v the Warriors at home last Sunday.
NO PLAY
Game 3) The Bulldogs v Northern Eagles, Sydney Showground, 21.30 CST
Bulldogs -5.5 ($1.90); Eagles +5.5
The Bulldogs are surprise table-toppers after three rounds. But they could only draw at home last weekend as -2.5 chalk v the Knights, 28-all. The Eagles covered as away dogs (+5.5) in a roller-coaster 42-38 win over the Panthers. The Doggies were upset they allowed a late converted try from the Knights to snatch a draw in their first home match to christen their new stadium and will seek to make amends here through their new-found free flowing style. They have virtually no major injury worries but the Eagles will sorely miss front-rower Nik Kosef, who is scheduled to have his fourth knee operation of his career. The visitors don't have a lot of big names and Kosef will be a substantial loss to the Eagles, who will base their game around the promptings of halfback Brett Kimmorley and loose forward Steve Menzies. The Bulldogs have new pace out wide and in the centres this year, are supremely fit early season and have some monster interchange players like the destructive Willie Mason, who could bust holes through an Eagles defence that conceded a host of points to the Panthers and 24 to the Warriors the previous week.
PLAY BULLDOGS -5.5
Note: Aggressive bettors may also be keen to play the over 40.5 points option. As it's not truly a hedge play (it works better backing the underdogs and the over) I'm passing but given the Eagles' recent porous defence and the Bulldogs propensity to throw the ball around, it's still a solid option.
Game 4) Nth Queensland Cowboys v Penrith Panthers, Cairns, 20:00 CST
Cowboys $2.00Aus SU; Panthers $1.80 SU
Again, hard to see the 0-3 SU and ATS Panthers as faves, but the Cowboys were thumped at home by the Roosters last weekend. Who knows what happens here?
NO PLAY
I will post later today on the overnight/early Sun morning (Down Under time) Super 12 games in Sth Africa but just in case your book is closed or you're in bed by then, I intend to play the Cats @ -2.5 at home v the Brumbies and will look closer at the Sharks @ -9.5 v the Highlanders, which is a pass at present but could be a late play on the hosts.
GLTA
Super 12:
Game 2) Canterbury Crusaders v Chiefs, Jade Stadium, Canterbury, 16:05 CST
Crusaders -7.5 ($1.90Aus); Chiefs +7.5
The three-times defending champion Crusaders have lost their first two SU and with a bye next weekend, realise that another defeat today would leave them with a monstrous task to make the semis even at such an early stage. The good news for the champions is that No10 Andrew Mehrtens will be back on the bench - Nathan Mauger continues to start - while fellow All Black Norm Maxwell (lock) is also back from injury and on the reserve bench. An added bonus is that Ben Blair will start at fullback, with his goalkicking maybe worth an extra 6-8 points - which is obviously vital to the spread. The Chiefs will be without second-five Scott McLeod and in-form lock Mark Cooksley through injury, while Andrew Hore will debut at hooker for the Crusaders and Afato So'oalo expected to start on the wing in place of fellow speedster Marika Vunibaka. I believe there are some key factors to facilitate a play on the Crusaders. They will have been stung by their two losses; particular last weekend against the Blues when they were the better side in an ugly match. I expect them to dominate possession and should have a distinct advantage over the Chiefs in the scrum and after scoring just one try in their opening two matches, will aim to find the tryline with far more regularity on their first home match. A key note here is the IRB's announced intention to ease up on the tough rulings on the "tackled ball" law, which should allow quicker ball and more room for backs to exploit starting this weekend. The Chiefs pipped the Reds at home last weekend in a scrappy match with Glen Jackson kicking 7 out of 7, but he is an inconsistent performer and may struggle on the road behind a forward pack going backwards. The home team rules this match-up too throughout the history of the Super 12. Crusaders need this badly and should get it.
PLAY CRUSADERS -7.5
Game 3) NSW Waratahs v Bulls, Sydney FS, 18:05 CST
Waratahs -14.5 ($1.85Aus); Bulls +14.5 ($1.95)
Waratahs are on fire early and demolished the Stormers last weekend after doing the same to the Chiefs in week one. But the Bulls covered as big dogs v the disorganised Hurricanes last weekend and are a gutsy outfit. Home team should win well but I wonder if they can get any better.
NO PLAY
NRL:
Game 2) Brisbane Broncos v West Tigers, ANZ Stadium, Brisbane, 19:30 CST
Broncos -11.5 ($1.85Aus); Tigers +11.5 ($1.95)
Broncos covered a DD spread at home in their first match v the Panthers but the Tigers did it fairly easy v the Warriors at home last Sunday.
NO PLAY
Game 3) The Bulldogs v Northern Eagles, Sydney Showground, 21.30 CST
Bulldogs -5.5 ($1.90); Eagles +5.5
The Bulldogs are surprise table-toppers after three rounds. But they could only draw at home last weekend as -2.5 chalk v the Knights, 28-all. The Eagles covered as away dogs (+5.5) in a roller-coaster 42-38 win over the Panthers. The Doggies were upset they allowed a late converted try from the Knights to snatch a draw in their first home match to christen their new stadium and will seek to make amends here through their new-found free flowing style. They have virtually no major injury worries but the Eagles will sorely miss front-rower Nik Kosef, who is scheduled to have his fourth knee operation of his career. The visitors don't have a lot of big names and Kosef will be a substantial loss to the Eagles, who will base their game around the promptings of halfback Brett Kimmorley and loose forward Steve Menzies. The Bulldogs have new pace out wide and in the centres this year, are supremely fit early season and have some monster interchange players like the destructive Willie Mason, who could bust holes through an Eagles defence that conceded a host of points to the Panthers and 24 to the Warriors the previous week.
PLAY BULLDOGS -5.5
Note: Aggressive bettors may also be keen to play the over 40.5 points option. As it's not truly a hedge play (it works better backing the underdogs and the over) I'm passing but given the Eagles' recent porous defence and the Bulldogs propensity to throw the ball around, it's still a solid option.
Game 4) Nth Queensland Cowboys v Penrith Panthers, Cairns, 20:00 CST
Cowboys $2.00Aus SU; Panthers $1.80 SU
Again, hard to see the 0-3 SU and ATS Panthers as faves, but the Cowboys were thumped at home by the Roosters last weekend. Who knows what happens here?
NO PLAY
I will post later today on the overnight/early Sun morning (Down Under time) Super 12 games in Sth Africa but just in case your book is closed or you're in bed by then, I intend to play the Cats @ -2.5 at home v the Brumbies and will look closer at the Sharks @ -9.5 v the Highlanders, which is a pass at present but could be a late play on the hosts.
GLTA
