Super 12:
Weekend: 2-1
Season to Date: 6-1 (85.71%); Best Bet - 2-0
Our third successive winning weekend to keep us nicely ahead for the season's target (57%). Let's break down the individual matches.
Game 1) Hurricanes 15 Stormers 27. For the second successive match, 'Canes failed to cover at home. Their star-studded backline struggles along, with rare moments of brilliance interspersed with many instances of recklessness, which cost them heavily on Friday night. The Stormers, under pressure for their first win in three games, responded well. (NO PLAY)
Game 2) Crusaders 40 Chiefs 11. A comfortable collect eventually, but not as simple as the final scoreline indicated. The Chiefs held tough for most of the first half and bombed two great try-scoring opportunities at crucial times which would have definitely threatened our chance of covering. But the Crusaders, as we predicted, were a much improved unit, dominant up front and more free running thru their backs. Ben Blair kicked well again and Aaron Mauger (sorry, referred to him as Nathan last week, that's his injured and equally talented brother) had a great game at first-five as Mehrtens sat on the bench all night. Chiefs have big injury problems ahead of Friday night's match v the Blues. (PLAY CRUSADERS -7.5)
Game 3) Waratahs 53 Bulls 7. A rout. The last 50 minutes of this match was little more than sevens rugby with extra players as both teams threw the ball about willy-nilly. The Bulls, who battled wel against the Hurricanes, capitulated against the confident and energetic home side, who now top the table but face the Cats away this weekend in a real test. (NO PLAY)
Game 4) Sharks 30 Highlanders 29. Soul-destroying SU loss (but ATS cover) for the Highlanders in SA after they led 29-16 late. Were the better side for the most part after an apathetic effort the previous weekend v the Cats and missed the victory when Tony Brown - who had kicked 5 from 5 - missed a penalty from in front in the final minute. (NO PLAY)
Game 5) Cats 17 Brumbies 19. Our first loss of the Super 12 season. Cats dominated for 60 mins and led 17-6, but fell to a late surge. Led 17-16 in the final minute before Rod Kafer kicked the winning drop goal in a gutsy comeback. Louis Koen's three missed kicks at goal were crucial in us missing a -2.5 cover. Feel we were on the right side here; disappointing loss but one I can live with. (PLAY CATS -2.5)
Game 6) Blues 39 Reds 35. Proud of this one as it played as we called it. Close all the way, with the Reds leading for the most part but never able to pull away - they led 25-15 early in the second spell but lost their way when Matt Cockbain was sinbinned for 10 mins. Blues had Jeremy Stanley in the bin in the first half - when the Reds scored their first try - and as expected, gave away too many penalties through dumb play and poor discipline. Flatley kicked two excellent and crucial sideline conversions and his 78th minute penalty from straight in front that put his team up 35-32 was essential to the cover as the Blues scored a match-winning converted try in injury time. (PLAY REDS +6.5)
NRL:
Weekend: 1-2
Season to Date: 7-6 (53.85%); Best Bet 1-0
Got the season's worst Bad Beat to date to turn a winning NRL weekend in to a losing one (see previous post and more here!)
Game 1) Warriors 34 Dragons 6. Oops. For the first 25 minutes I thought we'd read this match correctly as the Warriors turned over possession and the Dragons looked sharp. But the home team improved and found strength when I thought they'd fade after a tough match the previous weekend and the big Dragons forward pack floundered. Dragons also have big injury problems following this encounter. Warriors continue to kill me either way. (PLAY DRAGONS -2.5)
Game 2) Knights 32 Eels 14. A demolition job from the ever-improving Knights. Eels look like world-beaters one week, chumps the next although nothing went right for them in this one and the home team was irresistible. (NO PLAY)
Game 3) Broncos 24 Tigers 6. Broncos are now 2-0 ATS at home, 0-2 ATS on the road. Not a dominant performance but did enough, based on very solid defence and some top moments from Shaun Berrigan, who took over the playmaking role from Scott Prince. Tigers missed a heap of tackles (NO PLAY)
Game 4) Bulldogs 38 Eagles 18. A good win for us thru the on-fire Doggies. Young sensation Braith Anasta sparked the home team while flying backs El Masri and Vagana applied the finishing touches. Yet the Bulldogs had all the luck; at least 3 tries coming from intercepts or dropped passes. Bold bettors got a great 2-0 hedge here if they played the recommended over 40.5 pts (PLAY BULLDOGS -5.5)
Game 5) Cowboys 18 Panthers 32. The first win and cover in 4 matches for the Panthers and the second consecutive home drubbing for the lowly-rated Cowboys after a sharp start tothe season. An ugly match in the muggy and oppressive Cairns heat at the magnificently named Bundaberg Rum Stadium
(NO PLAY)
Game 6) Storm 34 Sharks 24. OUCH! 28-12 down in the second spell after no luck from the officials, the +5.5 dogs come racing back to get to 28-24 with time ticking away. Look to have tied the scores at 28-all with a try from a cross-kick to winger Matt Daylight but ref calls on the video ref to rule if he was offside. Vid ref has one angle
! to watch it from, can't make call, refers back to ref who says offside, penalty Storm. I can live with that I think; still have the cover. Last seconds, Storm win scrum inside their own half, Orford breaks a devastated Sharks defensive line to set up Geyer for a converted try in the last play of the match, goodbye profit. Almost drove of the road listening to these developments on the radio
! OK, bitch session completed (PLAY SHARKS +5.5)
Game 7) Roosters 24 Raiders 17. Roosters are like the Eels, capable of demolishing any team but seemingly also well capable of self-destructing. Made very hard work of what should have been a comfortable win and cover. Glad I kept enough discipline to not play them at -10.5 after I was seething following the end of the Sharks match 15 mins earlier (NO PLAY)
Will work on my opening lines and collating stats over the next day or so and post when I have some thoughts on this weekend. Note - will be away at a wedding all of the upcoming weekend so posting could be very limited. Will continue to cap games thru-out this week and should have the usual amount of plays but will try my utmost to avoid late factors which may alter my thoughts and plays if I am out of contact.
Hope you're all enjoying the seasons to date as much as I am; any feedback on any area of interest or suggestions are greatly looked forward to.
GLTA
Weekend: 2-1
Season to Date: 6-1 (85.71%); Best Bet - 2-0
Our third successive winning weekend to keep us nicely ahead for the season's target (57%). Let's break down the individual matches.
Game 1) Hurricanes 15 Stormers 27. For the second successive match, 'Canes failed to cover at home. Their star-studded backline struggles along, with rare moments of brilliance interspersed with many instances of recklessness, which cost them heavily on Friday night. The Stormers, under pressure for their first win in three games, responded well. (NO PLAY)
Game 2) Crusaders 40 Chiefs 11. A comfortable collect eventually, but not as simple as the final scoreline indicated. The Chiefs held tough for most of the first half and bombed two great try-scoring opportunities at crucial times which would have definitely threatened our chance of covering. But the Crusaders, as we predicted, were a much improved unit, dominant up front and more free running thru their backs. Ben Blair kicked well again and Aaron Mauger (sorry, referred to him as Nathan last week, that's his injured and equally talented brother) had a great game at first-five as Mehrtens sat on the bench all night. Chiefs have big injury problems ahead of Friday night's match v the Blues. (PLAY CRUSADERS -7.5)
Game 3) Waratahs 53 Bulls 7. A rout. The last 50 minutes of this match was little more than sevens rugby with extra players as both teams threw the ball about willy-nilly. The Bulls, who battled wel against the Hurricanes, capitulated against the confident and energetic home side, who now top the table but face the Cats away this weekend in a real test. (NO PLAY)
Game 4) Sharks 30 Highlanders 29. Soul-destroying SU loss (but ATS cover) for the Highlanders in SA after they led 29-16 late. Were the better side for the most part after an apathetic effort the previous weekend v the Cats and missed the victory when Tony Brown - who had kicked 5 from 5 - missed a penalty from in front in the final minute. (NO PLAY)
Game 5) Cats 17 Brumbies 19. Our first loss of the Super 12 season. Cats dominated for 60 mins and led 17-6, but fell to a late surge. Led 17-16 in the final minute before Rod Kafer kicked the winning drop goal in a gutsy comeback. Louis Koen's three missed kicks at goal were crucial in us missing a -2.5 cover. Feel we were on the right side here; disappointing loss but one I can live with. (PLAY CATS -2.5)
Game 6) Blues 39 Reds 35. Proud of this one as it played as we called it. Close all the way, with the Reds leading for the most part but never able to pull away - they led 25-15 early in the second spell but lost their way when Matt Cockbain was sinbinned for 10 mins. Blues had Jeremy Stanley in the bin in the first half - when the Reds scored their first try - and as expected, gave away too many penalties through dumb play and poor discipline. Flatley kicked two excellent and crucial sideline conversions and his 78th minute penalty from straight in front that put his team up 35-32 was essential to the cover as the Blues scored a match-winning converted try in injury time. (PLAY REDS +6.5)
NRL:
Weekend: 1-2
Season to Date: 7-6 (53.85%); Best Bet 1-0
Got the season's worst Bad Beat to date to turn a winning NRL weekend in to a losing one (see previous post and more here!)
Game 1) Warriors 34 Dragons 6. Oops. For the first 25 minutes I thought we'd read this match correctly as the Warriors turned over possession and the Dragons looked sharp. But the home team improved and found strength when I thought they'd fade after a tough match the previous weekend and the big Dragons forward pack floundered. Dragons also have big injury problems following this encounter. Warriors continue to kill me either way. (PLAY DRAGONS -2.5)
Game 2) Knights 32 Eels 14. A demolition job from the ever-improving Knights. Eels look like world-beaters one week, chumps the next although nothing went right for them in this one and the home team was irresistible. (NO PLAY)
Game 3) Broncos 24 Tigers 6. Broncos are now 2-0 ATS at home, 0-2 ATS on the road. Not a dominant performance but did enough, based on very solid defence and some top moments from Shaun Berrigan, who took over the playmaking role from Scott Prince. Tigers missed a heap of tackles (NO PLAY)
Game 4) Bulldogs 38 Eagles 18. A good win for us thru the on-fire Doggies. Young sensation Braith Anasta sparked the home team while flying backs El Masri and Vagana applied the finishing touches. Yet the Bulldogs had all the luck; at least 3 tries coming from intercepts or dropped passes. Bold bettors got a great 2-0 hedge here if they played the recommended over 40.5 pts (PLAY BULLDOGS -5.5)
Game 5) Cowboys 18 Panthers 32. The first win and cover in 4 matches for the Panthers and the second consecutive home drubbing for the lowly-rated Cowboys after a sharp start tothe season. An ugly match in the muggy and oppressive Cairns heat at the magnificently named Bundaberg Rum Stadium
Game 6) Storm 34 Sharks 24. OUCH! 28-12 down in the second spell after no luck from the officials, the +5.5 dogs come racing back to get to 28-24 with time ticking away. Look to have tied the scores at 28-all with a try from a cross-kick to winger Matt Daylight but ref calls on the video ref to rule if he was offside. Vid ref has one angle
Game 7) Roosters 24 Raiders 17. Roosters are like the Eels, capable of demolishing any team but seemingly also well capable of self-destructing. Made very hard work of what should have been a comfortable win and cover. Glad I kept enough discipline to not play them at -10.5 after I was seething following the end of the Sharks match 15 mins earlier (NO PLAY)
Will work on my opening lines and collating stats over the next day or so and post when I have some thoughts on this weekend. Note - will be away at a wedding all of the upcoming weekend so posting could be very limited. Will continue to cap games thru-out this week and should have the usual amount of plays but will try my utmost to avoid late factors which may alter my thoughts and plays if I am out of contact.
Hope you're all enjoying the seasons to date as much as I am; any feedback on any area of interest or suggestions are greatly looked forward to.
GLTA
