NRL:
Season to Date: 26-21 (55.32%)
There are THREE plays to recommend for the weekend.
Game 4) Northern Eagles v Newcastle Knights, Gosford
Eagles +4.5
Rather than playing a side here I will play a total. The Eagles are the champions of the Over; with such a porous defence. It has improved in recent rounds but only marginally after conceding 52 pts v the Storm in rd 9 (rd 10 - 24 conceded v Cowboys, rd 11 - 16 v Raiders, rd 12 - 26 v Eels, rd 13 - 22 v Broncos). Their missed tackle rate is abysmal (last 5 rds - 29, 30, 26, 22, 33) and they turnover a lot of ball in poor field position.
The Knights' attack is obviously not the same beast it was without Andrew Johns, but they are still capable of running up big numbers with their plethora of potential havoc-wreakers in the backline; Gidley himslef from standoff, MacDougall, Tahu, Albert, Ryder and O'Davis. Their pts for in the past 5 rds have been 19, 42, 32, 56 and 22. They are also a fine offloading team, with 20 or more per game in four of their last five encounters.
The Eagles are aiming for a club record-equalling ninth win in a row and know they have a chance if they throw the ball around, while Kimmorley's upsurge in form v the Broncos was a sign he may be able to spark something for the home team.
PLAY OVER 44.5 POINTS
Game 6) Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers, Parramatta Stadium
Eels -9.5
Another total; this one going the other way. Hard to play an Under in the NRL these days but I believe we have enough factors here to make this total good value.
The Panthers defence has been poor this year but last weekend they showed signs of improvement v the Knights - 25 missed tackles, which ain't great, but their tally has dropped in the last 3 rds - and as a whole the team seems to have found a bit of fight in recent rounds. Their other pleasing stat is their completion rate - which should use up time and indicate a team won't turnover the ball in poor positions - which has seen them go 66%, 78%, 78% and 74% in the past month. But they're not a devastating scoring force - just 12, 20, 14 and 19 pts for in their last 4 rds.
Against the superb Eels defence, it's hard to see them tally many. The Eels' missed tackle count in their past three matches has been under 20 and the completion percentage also outstanding. There's the chance the Eels could run up a reasonable tally but the under could still occur by them keeping the Panthers toothless.
PLAY EELS UNDER 48 POINTS
Game 7) Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm, Sydney Showground
Bulldogs -2.5
Anyone like to explain to me how the Bulldogs are giving points here. Only things I can think of are that the books have looked at just the league table and the draw. I've been saying it for a few weeks but I'll repeat myself (at the risk of being rude) - the Storm are on of the hot teams in the NRL at present.
Last weekend they survived a late scare to beat the Raiders 32-28 but the game should have been well over early and Mark Murray will be reminding his players of the need for an 80-minute game tomorrow. They dominated possession (60%) and completed 30 of 38 sets to follow on recent top work in this area lately (79%, 78%, 78% are excellent numbers) but missed some tackles late - a feature of this year's NRL (interchange rule anyone?)
The Bulldogs were awful in their 14-26 loss to the Dragons; losing despite having 53% possession. Two line breaks, 22 errors and 40 missed tackles is scary. That's not to say they'll do it again tomorrow. But their figures haven't been flattering for a while now and they have dropped off the pace despite playing teams like the Sharks, Cowboys, Tigers and Warriors since rd 8. Gotta go with the hot side here.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM +2.5
Season to Date: 26-21 (55.32%)
There are THREE plays to recommend for the weekend.
Game 4) Northern Eagles v Newcastle Knights, Gosford
Eagles +4.5
Rather than playing a side here I will play a total. The Eagles are the champions of the Over; with such a porous defence. It has improved in recent rounds but only marginally after conceding 52 pts v the Storm in rd 9 (rd 10 - 24 conceded v Cowboys, rd 11 - 16 v Raiders, rd 12 - 26 v Eels, rd 13 - 22 v Broncos). Their missed tackle rate is abysmal (last 5 rds - 29, 30, 26, 22, 33) and they turnover a lot of ball in poor field position.
The Knights' attack is obviously not the same beast it was without Andrew Johns, but they are still capable of running up big numbers with their plethora of potential havoc-wreakers in the backline; Gidley himslef from standoff, MacDougall, Tahu, Albert, Ryder and O'Davis. Their pts for in the past 5 rds have been 19, 42, 32, 56 and 22. They are also a fine offloading team, with 20 or more per game in four of their last five encounters.
The Eagles are aiming for a club record-equalling ninth win in a row and know they have a chance if they throw the ball around, while Kimmorley's upsurge in form v the Broncos was a sign he may be able to spark something for the home team.
PLAY OVER 44.5 POINTS
Game 6) Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers, Parramatta Stadium
Eels -9.5
Another total; this one going the other way. Hard to play an Under in the NRL these days but I believe we have enough factors here to make this total good value.
The Panthers defence has been poor this year but last weekend they showed signs of improvement v the Knights - 25 missed tackles, which ain't great, but their tally has dropped in the last 3 rds - and as a whole the team seems to have found a bit of fight in recent rounds. Their other pleasing stat is their completion rate - which should use up time and indicate a team won't turnover the ball in poor positions - which has seen them go 66%, 78%, 78% and 74% in the past month. But they're not a devastating scoring force - just 12, 20, 14 and 19 pts for in their last 4 rds.
Against the superb Eels defence, it's hard to see them tally many. The Eels' missed tackle count in their past three matches has been under 20 and the completion percentage also outstanding. There's the chance the Eels could run up a reasonable tally but the under could still occur by them keeping the Panthers toothless.
PLAY EELS UNDER 48 POINTS
Game 7) Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm, Sydney Showground
Bulldogs -2.5
Anyone like to explain to me how the Bulldogs are giving points here. Only things I can think of are that the books have looked at just the league table and the draw. I've been saying it for a few weeks but I'll repeat myself (at the risk of being rude) - the Storm are on of the hot teams in the NRL at present.
Last weekend they survived a late scare to beat the Raiders 32-28 but the game should have been well over early and Mark Murray will be reminding his players of the need for an 80-minute game tomorrow. They dominated possession (60%) and completed 30 of 38 sets to follow on recent top work in this area lately (79%, 78%, 78% are excellent numbers) but missed some tackles late - a feature of this year's NRL (interchange rule anyone?)
The Bulldogs were awful in their 14-26 loss to the Dragons; losing despite having 53% possession. Two line breaks, 22 errors and 40 missed tackles is scary. That's not to say they'll do it again tomorrow. But their figures haven't been flattering for a while now and they have dropped off the pace despite playing teams like the Sharks, Cowboys, Tigers and Warriors since rd 8. Gotta go with the hot side here.
PLAY MELBOURNE STORM +2.5
