NRL Wk 4 fades!

[Anders]

Game One) Bulldogs v South Sydney, Oz Stad
Bulldogs -9.5/12.5

Going to pass on a "side" bet here and play the total. Bulldogs will be favoured to cover after waltzing to victory over the Dragons last rd and snatching a draw away to the Broncos. But Souths have recovered very well from their opening night embarassment and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them get within less than double digits of the Doggies.
I think the value is with an "over" play. The Bulldogs tore into their work v the Dragons and the game was already over when Riddell was sent off with the 'dogs up 18-0 within as many minutes. They cruised from there on in and will fancy their chances of getting among the points against the Rabbitohs.
Souths conceded a host of pts v the Roosters, did better away to the Raiders - more of a reflection of the genuine lack of firepower at Canberra - and still conceded 4 tries v the woeful Eagles while running up the score at the other end. All 4 tries were from close range, which leads to concerns over the Rabbitohs defence.
Believe we might sneak this one over in the last 10 minutes.

PLAY OVER 45.5 (1 unit)

 

[Anders]

Game Two) Parramatta v Melbourne, Parramatta Stadium
Eels -15.5

The home side has been sitting around angrily for the past 2 wks following their shock loss to the Tigers (followed by the bye week).
Today they should take that out on the Storm.
Winger Pat Richards is back after a long injury break for the Eels while he is joined by David Vaealiki on the bench after a rapid recovery from a scary-looking neck injury.
Matt Orford is still expected to sit this one after missing last week's 38-10 win over the Cowboys rabble.
The Eels are very good in front of their home fans in day matches. While the Storm are 2-1 SU, those wins have been over the Cowboys at home and at home just over the Raiders. In their only road trip this season, the Storm came home late in a grudge match v the Sharks to cover the spread but never looked like winning after being down 18 pts in the 2nd spell.
The home team should have far too much flair, imagination and pace for the visitors in this one and are adept at covering DD spreads.

PLAY EELS -15.5 (1 unit)

 

[Anders]

NRL:

Game Four) Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers, Penrith FS
Panthers -7

Panthers were dreadful ATS at home last year and were often faves in that role for no reason. Despite showing some spine v the Sharks last rd I can't see too much sense in this line. The Tigers got their feet stamped back to the ground last weekend by the Raiders and in a grinding match between 2 avg teams I'll back the side that has beaten the Bulldogs and the Eels already this season getting points.

PLAY WESTS TIGERS +7 (1 unit)

 

[Anders]

Game Six) Brisbane Broncos v Sharks, ANZ Stadium
Broncos -7.5

The Broncos have yet to hit their straps this campaign despite going 2-1 SU and ATS. They got home late v the depleted Roosters last week in an up-and-down performance.
The Sharks have been perfect SU but 1-2 ATS while most of the talk surrounding the side has focused on where Preston Campbell plays in Chris Anderson's system.
Broncos remain unchanged, meaning no place for Brad Meyers but the pack will need to dominate more than it has in the past 2 weeks if they are to keep the Kangaroo forward in the Queensland Cup comp. That should spark Bennett's forwards in front of the home fans and could give Langer and Lockyer enough room to work their magic against the Sharks.

PLAY BRONCOS -7.5 (1 unit)

Game Seven) Northern Eagles vSydney Roosters, Brookvale
Eagles +8.5/10.5

Even the continued absence of Brad Fittler can't keep me off this play. The Eagles are simply woeful and it should be a battle royale between them and the Cowboys for the wooden spoon. Their defence was awful against the Rabbitohs and the fact they scored four was reflection only on the suspect defence of Souths that we saw exposed by the Roosters and Bulldogs.
With Nathan Long and Tasesa Lavea likely to be out for the Eagles, there ranks of quality are spread wafer thin.
The Roosters showed a ton of pluck v the Broncos with a big casualty list and were a real shot to win SU with 15 mins to go. Luke Phillips will be out to prove he's a better fullback than the past-it Brett Mullins, Adrian Morley bolsters the front row after a one-match suspension and Simon Bonnetti is postponing a shoulder op. Roosters forwards have shown plenty of heart so far and with the likes of Craig Wing and Ryan Cross able to set up the outside speedsters, Roosters should cover here.

PLAY ROOSTERS -8.5 (1 unit)