Game One) Sydney Roosters v Brisbane Broncos, Sydney
Roosters +3.5/+5.5
A little disappointed I didn't play this earlier in the week before Brad Fittler pulled out with a fractured rib. But the line hasn't moved as much as I imagined at some books so there's still value here in backing the visitors.
The Broncos were a bit disappointing last weekend - they started at a million mph and looked like rolling all over the Doggies in the 1st 10 mins before the visitors fought back well. I think the home side tried to do a bit too much before establishing dominance up front and the wet windy conditions didn't help much either.
Having said that, Bulldogs had to make 51 more tackles as the Broncos dominated most of the 2nd spell and the Broncos numbers were pretty reasonable - 23 missed tackles, 173 hit-ups, 31 completions.
The Roosters got close to the Warriors in the 2nd spell after being 20-6 down early but the scoreline didn't show how dominant the Warriors were (and with just 3 interchange players for 78 mins after Hape's injury) . Compare these stats - Completions: Warriors 34, Roosters 25; Tackles - Warriors 205, Roosters 267; Missed Tackles - Warriors 16, Roosters 27, Hit-ups - Warriors 194, Roosters 135; Offloads - Warriors 25, Roosters 12.
Basically, the Roosters got hammered most of the day by a big athletic side in taxing conditons.
Now they have to back up five days later (Broncos have had a week) without their most influential player by a longshot; chief prop Adrian Morley and hooker Simon Bonetti - their other main man at dummy half apart from Craig Wing - nursing a busted shoulder they have real problems for this match. Don't forget the experienced and wise halfback Paul Green is already ruled out for the season.
Another handicapping pt to note - watch for sides that have forwards as goalkickers. Most of them are very good - ie Craig Fitzgibbon (Roosters), Mark Riddell (Dragons) - but check out their backups because there may be stages when vital kicks will be taken with the forward having a break on the interchange bench. One look at Ryan Cross kicking for the Roosters last weekend is all u need to note!!
With Dane Carlaw and Carl Webb coming back to fitness gradually for the Broncos, they should hammer away up front to establish the edge in this one.
PLAY BRONCOS -3.5
Roosters +3.5/+5.5
A little disappointed I didn't play this earlier in the week before Brad Fittler pulled out with a fractured rib. But the line hasn't moved as much as I imagined at some books so there's still value here in backing the visitors.
The Broncos were a bit disappointing last weekend - they started at a million mph and looked like rolling all over the Doggies in the 1st 10 mins before the visitors fought back well. I think the home side tried to do a bit too much before establishing dominance up front and the wet windy conditions didn't help much either.
Having said that, Bulldogs had to make 51 more tackles as the Broncos dominated most of the 2nd spell and the Broncos numbers were pretty reasonable - 23 missed tackles, 173 hit-ups, 31 completions.
The Roosters got close to the Warriors in the 2nd spell after being 20-6 down early but the scoreline didn't show how dominant the Warriors were (and with just 3 interchange players for 78 mins after Hape's injury) . Compare these stats - Completions: Warriors 34, Roosters 25; Tackles - Warriors 205, Roosters 267; Missed Tackles - Warriors 16, Roosters 27, Hit-ups - Warriors 194, Roosters 135; Offloads - Warriors 25, Roosters 12.
Basically, the Roosters got hammered most of the day by a big athletic side in taxing conditons.
Now they have to back up five days later (Broncos have had a week) without their most influential player by a longshot; chief prop Adrian Morley and hooker Simon Bonetti - their other main man at dummy half apart from Craig Wing - nursing a busted shoulder they have real problems for this match. Don't forget the experienced and wise halfback Paul Green is already ruled out for the season.
Another handicapping pt to note - watch for sides that have forwards as goalkickers. Most of them are very good - ie Craig Fitzgibbon (Roosters), Mark Riddell (Dragons) - but check out their backups because there may be stages when vital kicks will be taken with the forward having a break on the interchange bench. One look at Ryan Cross kicking for the Roosters last weekend is all u need to note!!
With Dane Carlaw and Carl Webb coming back to fitness gradually for the Broncos, they should hammer away up front to establish the edge in this one.
PLAY BRONCOS -3.5
