NYI-TB Total (Question)

[Nolan Dalla]

CRIS has the total on the NYI-TB game at 6 goals (-130 under)

Olympic lists the total at 5.5 (-130 over)

QUESTION:

-- If you want to bet this game OVER, which is the better value?

-- If you want to be this game UNDER, which is the better value?

Any input welcome. Thanks.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Mr.]

I personnally always take the + side. I feel that if you are confident enough in a total, it should clear the 6 or stay under 5. Just my opinion. I also try not to lay more than 120 on a hockey total.

 

[Never Caught Up]

Great question, Nolan. I think all answers are going to be subjective and reflect individual opinions of value that might be hard to prove.

Personally I would lay the -130 either way. If I bet under it would take seven to beat me instead of six. That is huge. If I bet over I could win on six instead of seven.

The question becomes "Is the extra number worth about a 40% increase in the risk/return ratio?" A strong case could be made for the other side as well.


[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 10-05-2001).]

 

[NYMess]

Nolan, I think this question would be in relation to your football logic in when a line no longer has value. What I mean is when you post a side but at 'no higher than 3' for example. On the totals example you have given I think it would depend on where you see the game finishing. If you don't see the teams scoring more than 6 goals then lay the juice. If it finishes at 5 you obvously lose triple juice but win on 6. If you think the game will be like Ottawa's first two (5-4 and 6-4) then lay 6 and take the plus. money. If the game finishes at 5 here you lose a no juice bet but push on a six. I think the value only resides in your opinion of the outcome of the game.

Good Luck in your decision.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Thanks for the two replies so far (although two different strategies are recommended).

I was trying to determine the precise value of gaining the "6" (which appears to cost an extra 35-40 percent.....+110 to -130). Obviously, LESS than 35 percent of NHL games with a total of 5.5 will fall right on "6." I presume the number of games that falls on 6 when the total is 5.5 is about 20 percent (arguably between 18 and 34 percent). But, we would have to have a database and run an Excel program to find the percentages.

I would go with the +110 UNDER 5.5 in a heartbeat, but I don't like the empty goal fears. I can see it now -- Isles up 3-2, Tampa pull the goaltender and Isles score a trash goal pushing the total to 6.

Thanks for the replies thus far.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Good point NYMess. In other words, there is no "correct" mathematical answer. I presume if we could run a program to quantify the difference between 5 and 6 (when the total is 5.5) we could come up with some rough numbers. But, we also have to factor in subjective analysis as well.

Thanks for the replies.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[thepoolguy]

When faced with the dilemma of playing 5.5 rather than 5 or 6, I look at it like an insurance policy, you don't want to use it, but it sure feels good when you do. I will often split it up, and put half my $ one way and half the other. I would like to see some numbers to show which way is actually better, in the long run.

 

[katts]

Nolan..

No matter what people will say, there's nothing like using your own judgement, and you seem to have a good one.

The key number here is 6, so basically here's what you need to know:

• In the last 2 years, 14.9% (356/2389) of all NHL games (regular season) ended up with an exact total of 6
• Last year, a little less than 25% of Islanders' road games (10/41) ended up with an exact total of 6. About the same number in 1999-2000 (11/41)
• 7 games out of the 41 TB homies ended up with an exact total of 6 last year (17.1%), and make that 16/82 (19.5%) in the last 2 years.
• In the last 2 years, 7 of the 8 meetings between the 2 teams went over 5.5, however 4 of those 7 games were 6-goals games. In Tamapa Bay, thats 4/4 over 5.5 and 3/4 exact 6.

-------------------------------

***Key additions for the NYIslanders:

• Mike Peca (C)
• Alexei Yashin (C)
• Chris Osgood (G)

PS: However don't forget the Peter Laviolette (NYI coach) factor. The guy was a

disciplined defenseman when he played and he is expected to bring the same qualities to his first head coaching gig.

Good luck this seasson

 

[TexasBC6]

Katts -

Just curious as to where you were able to find those numbers. Very useful information IMO. I didn't know if you had your own numbers and extracted the percentages from that or if there is a site that has great info like that. Thanks.

 

[TexasBC6]

To address Nolan's question, I think NCU made a good point in saying that this might be a pretty subjective debate.

Personally, I would take the 6 for the over and not bet the under at either number. At 5.5, you get small plus odds on the under, but lose the chance for a 6 goal push (which is a significant number obviously). At 6, you get the push on a 6 goal game, but lose triple juice if it goes over and lose the extra +10 you could have had with under 5.5 on a win.

Conversely, betting over 5.5 at -130 gives you the win on a 6 goal game, but triple juice on a loss. Over 6 gives you plus odds and the push on a 6 goal game, while eliminating the risk of losing juice.

To sum up all of this incoherence, I would either play over 6 at +110 or pass on that total given the circumstances you described. Like I said though, that is what I personally would do, the final decision is always with the bettor. GL!

[This message has been edited by TexasBC6 (edited 10-05-2001).]

 

[Investment Executive]

hard to tell what the value of a 1/2 goal will be this season until we see some factors for current season...for sides in the past it has ranged from a worth of 34-53 cents on the first 1/2 goal depending on the side line put out on the game and total itself.

 

[Centre Ice]

Originally posted by Nolan Dalla:
I would go with the +110 UNDER 5.5 in a heartbeat, but I don't like the empty goal fears. I can see it now -- Isles up 3-2, Tampa pull the goaltender and Isles score a trash goal pushing the total to 6.
Thanks for the replies thus far.
Nolan Dalla

Hi Nolan.
I'm surprised you would go with the 5 1/2. I see the difference between -130 and +110 is 30.

We know the three senarios would be.....

Player 1 Under 6 -130
Player 2 Under 5 1/2 +110

Total goals at 5
Player 1 +100 (W)
Player 2 +110 (W)

Total goals at 6
Player 1 Even (P)
Player 2 -100 (L)

Total goals 7
Player 1 -130 (L)
Player 2 -100 (L)

I look at it this way, do you take the under 6 and risk the possibility of losing the extra $30 or take the under 5 1/2 and risk the possibility of losing the $100.

I sometimes bet runlines in baseball (hope Jack doesn't read this

), say a choice of a team at -180 or -1 1/2 +100. Is it worth the risk, it is for me.
Goalies are far more important than pitchers as the goalies will play the whole game, pitchers usually don't. The run lines are usually between 7 1/2-9 1/2 where hockey is 5-6, the % of win/loss is greater I think.

Just my opinion but that 1/2 goal I think is very big, I'd lay the juice for the 6.
(But remember, were not to bright up here, we landed here instead of taking Hawaii)

What would you do if you liked the OVER ??



[This message has been edited by Centre Ice (edited 10-05-2001).]

 

[selkirk]

I would always take 6 if I was playing the under, and take the 5.5 if I was playing the over.

we can argue value, but at the end of the day I want to win the bet, .5 of a goal throughout the season will be big.
thanks
selkirk