Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has won all eight races it has competed in. That's why when the morning line odds were set earlier in the week, the J. Paul Reddam-owned horse was made the betting favorite to win the Preakness at 3-5, followed by Exaggerator at 3-1 and Stradivari at 8-1.
Well, thanks to a huge bet, oddsmakers have moved the line on all three horses.
That's right, Stradivari, who did not run in the Kentucky Derby is your new favorite to win the featured race at Pimlico. Stradivari is a fairly unknown horse, with just three races under its belt. But, the 3-year-old colt has won its last two races in fairly decisive fashion.
The odds have calmed a bit, but still favor the horse in the 11th post.
group dumped 80k to win on Strad this morning at Laurel Park. showed up in a limo with briefcases. Nyquist will be odds on fav. come post time as 80k into this pool isn't going to be all that much when it is said and done. Strad should float back up closer to 5 or 6 to 1, with Nyquist going off at about 3/5 or 4/5.
I'm against Nyquist...no value for me. He is a great horse, I won't deny that, but at 3/5 in a race like this....no thank you. I'll take my chances going elsewhere and try to beat him. Also handling the surface is a ? for him, as is how will he come back off 2 weeks rest.
Exaggerator is going to be the 2nd choice and short odds, but he's proven to like the surface and has the ideal running style in a race that is going to, or should, show a hot pace up front. Nyquist isn't going to have it easy and the jockey is going to have to make some decisions. Strad on the outside is an interesting horse but the post position hurts and I think sends him wide into the 1st turn which hurts.
I like Exaggerator out of the main 3 contenders, but I also think some interesting longshots can get a piece. Lani is interesting and if he behaves, has the running style to pick up the pieces. Just a shame he has so much of his foundation racing in Japan, hard to get a line on it in the forms and ratings. I also think Cherry Wine is poised to run a big one. Another that will have the ideal running style to run into a hot pace and should like the slop. Romans barn has been pretty hot and he would love to win the Preakness after taking the Black Eyed Susan yesterday.
Cherry Wine - should take a step forward. has had a nice rest, has a good running style for today, has a post position where he can save ground, and should be a nice price
Uncle Lino - needs to take a step forward to be competitive...ran a suicide mission in the SA derby chasing Danzig Candy around at a ridiculous pace, only to see Exaggerator swallow them all up
Nyquist - undefeated champ, but 2 weeks rest and an unknown surface, at odds on I'll pass every single time. no value what so ever. Doesn't mean he cant win, but he won't get my money and if he does win, I'll be lining up to bet against him with both hands in the Belmont.
Awesome Speed - another interesting longshot, has a nice pattern and is poised to make a move forward which makes him pretty competitive here especially in the exotics. I am using this one underneath for sure. Goldberg can get his runners to pop on occasion and if he handles the surface he could run a big one. Finished 2nd last time out, placed 1st after winner was DQ'd....horse he edged out came back to run an impressive 2nd in the Peter Pan which is a G2 tune up for the Belmont
Exaggerator - handles the surface. from all reports, can bounce back in 2 weeks without much a problem...has a quick recovery time, which is rare. will be able to save ground and have some pace to run into. need a smart ride from jock though as the rail seems a bit dead right now as of race 10, so a smart jock will steer out into the 2-3 path coming for home. most likely horse to run his race and his best race is arguable the best of any in here.
Lani - had trouble in Derby, still made a nice stretch run. another late running longshot I think can get a piece if the pace melts down. a win would be asking a lot, and it is hard to gauge how much of a move up he is due as his running lines in Japan don't translate normally here, but he has a good pedigree and should relish the mud.
Collected - I don't really like him, but if Baffert is cranking out winners, it is worth a consideration. Baffert had one favorite win handily already and has another in the 11th. His horse in the 11th is rumored his best 3 year old. If Baffert is running hot though you have to at least consider what he is putting out there.
Laoban - has never won, blinkers come off but don't think it matters.
Abiding Star - a long shot that ran one in the slop 2 back that was very impressive. That figure makes him competitve here if he can repeat. He needs the lead though and will be forced to send from outside. He is one of the main guys to challenge Nyquist up front early and force their hand. Definitely an interesting factor in the race.
Fellowship - Casse has been alright this weekend, not great. this one is going to try and make a late run to try and get a piece. not a threat to win in my opinion. Would need a big move up to become competitive and has already improved quite a bite from a 2 year old, so asking another big improvement this soon is asking a lot.
Stradivari - As mentioned, a talented horse but the post position hurts. Will also be over bet. If this horse had an inside post, I would like him a lot more, but being outside and being over bet, I am going to go against him as well.
I think we could see a longshot or 2 get a piece. Typically with an off track, if a horse doesn't run their race, it is amplified. If one of the shorter prices doesn't like the track we could see the tote light up.
GL :0074
