NZ Open

[Anders]

Ian/Stanley; here's what I've cobbled together so far.
Venue: The Grange, Auckland. Par - 70; 5974m.
Hosting the tournament for the fourth time -Peter O'Malley won in 95, Rodger Davis in 86.
When Davis won he shot 18 under 262, O'Malley's winning score was 272. The difference? Lightning hard greens in 95.
Grange officials have said greens will be firm and fast, usually run between 9-10 on the Stimp meter, Aus PGA have asked for nothing quicket than 10.5. Greens are Annual Bluegrass.
Both nines are very different - front nine (2846m) is where most of the scoring opportunities are, with accurate tee shots setting up short irons to the greens.
Inward nine contrasts at 3128m. Three par 4s over 400m, 13th and 17th possibly the toughest holes.
Tree-lined fairways thru-out, making for tricky crosswinds.
Most players likely to try and attack the front 9, look for bonus birdies on 12, 14 and 16 and hold on over 17 and 18.
Hope this helps; am trying to track down top finishers in the last 2 Opens at the Grange.
NZ TAB leading odds (note - don't get your stake back; NZ $) www.tab.co.nz

Campbell $3.50 win; $1.25 top 4
Turner $9; $2.30
Rumford $12; $3
Gossett $18; $4.25
Conran $25; $5.50
Pampling $20; $4.25
Long $20; $4.25
Gardiner $25; $4.50 (TAB have taken a bit since the Victorian)
Druce $25; $5.50

Hope this helps

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A handshake is worthy; if it's all that you've got - Michael Stipe

 

[Ian]

Just looked at NZ tab prices, one that stands out to me as being quite generous is 80-1 Scott Hend. He finished T4th this week and is apparently a good young player

 

[Ian]

Anyone know what Rod Pampling has been up to since ginishing 4th in the Johnnie Walker?, any results much appreciated

 

[Ian]

As far as I can make out Pampling has not played since finishing 4th in Johnnie Walker a much higher quality of field than that we have this week, he has a fairly good record in NZ and he is quoted at 20-1 with the NZ Tab
yet he is 50-1 with Firststake and 66-1 with Bet24hours which I think is a little over generous
Also looking at a possible play on Walters whose recent form is improving week on week his last 4 finishes being 44/32/24/4 but want to do bit more research on him (80-1 is available)

 

[Ian]

Bonhomme is 80-1 at Firststake,
only 25-1 Centrebet 28-1 Corals
Played well before Xmas finishing 6th and 11th in Ford Open and Aus PGA, he has also gained his tour card for Japan
The 80-1 is too big
(Also 80's at DAS)
(Also 80's Ladbrokes who pay on first 5 and 100-1 Hills who don't)
[This message has been edited by Ian (edited 01-16-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Ian (edited 01-16-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

My preview & plays ...

After a five-year absence the New Zealand Open returns to The Grange and to the sponsors' delight, so does Michael Campbell, the defending champion. The field does not boast some of its international flavor of five years ago - as well as more of the leading Australians, Scott Hoch and a young Mike Weir were present on the last occasion - but Campbell is a big enough draw in himself.

That said, this course is rather different to last year's Paraparaumu course, with narrow tree-lined fairways and accuracy rather than length definitely being the premium this week. The 1995 top-3 of Peter O'Malley, Scott Hoch and Frank Nobilo is testimony to the type of golfer who will perform well on this course. That does not bode well for Brett Rumford who is strongly fancied by the line-makers. Nor does the fact that Campbell's wife gave birth to their second child just before Christmas. Player's performances have been known to dip somewhat after the birth of a child.

Instead, the three outright plays will involve two former winners of this event and a rank outsider, at least in the bookies' eyes. The first is Peter O'Malley who won this event on this course in 1995 and finished last year in very good form, though he challenged more often than he won. He has excellent accuracy stats - driving accuracy and greens in regulation - and looks far better value than Campbell at 2/1.

The second is New Zealander Greg Turner who won this event in 1989 and 1997. Like O'Malley, his better stats are the accuracy ones and will revel in playing in his home country, while not being constantly in the spotlight. A solid player on the European Tour, he looks good in this field and should improve on his 8th place finish last year. The rank outsider is David Smail, a compatriot of Turner's. He plies his trade on the Japan Tour where he has not missed in cut in his last twelve tournaments, securing three top-10s and 3rd place finish in the Tours Players Championship along the way. Like the other picks, accuracy is the focal point of his game, he ranks 72nd in driving distance and 22nd in greens in regulation, and finished 11th on this course in 1995. Odds of 100/1 are certainly not justified, though most layers do not even cite him!


Outright plays:

Peter O'Malley to win e/w 14/1 @ William Hill
Greg Turner to win e/w 14/1 @ William Hill
David Smail to win e/w 100/1 @ William Hill

72-hole plays:

Andrew Bonhomme to beat Brett Rumford +140 @ Centrebet
Opposing the big-hitting Rumford as his length will be of little use this week; Bonhomme has a decent accuracy game, but his strength is on the greens. Attractive at that price

Kenny Druce to beat David Bransdon -111 @ Centrebet
From the few tournament stats that are available on the ANZ Tour site, these players appear polar opposites in terms of accuracy and that is a premium this week: Druce has hit 73% of fairways and 71% of greens in regulation; Bransdon has hit 54% of fairways and 63% of greens

Tony Carolan to beat Adrian Percey +100 @ DAS [2 units]
Neither player has stats to brag about, but Carolan has much the better form. He has finishes of 18th, mc and 21st on the Tour so far this season which ranks better than Percey's 38th, mc, 48th, mc. Carolan has also played this course before, making the cut in 1995 at least

 

[Anders]

Thanks Stanley for your picks. I'm heading up to Akl in a few mins to cover the tournament for my newspaper, so I'll try to update with any info I have as tournament progresses, although my access to the 'net may not be as often as I'd hoped.
Smail would be a good win for me work-wise; he's from Hamilton and would make a great story for our readers. Under-rated as he plays on the Japanese circuit so much.
Everyone in NZ will be on Campbell but he's not a fan of The Grange and I think the public pressure will be tough on him.
Just a word of warning on Turner. He said y'day about the course "It doesn't suit my game. I've never felt comfortable on courses where you have aerial hazards and there's a lot of that at The Grange". Has previously referred to the course as "a field with trees." Turner is never afraid to voice his opinion but often spits the dummy on courses that don't suit him.
I like O'Malley, people are climbing on him and he said y'day "I feel the thythm in my swing is not too bad. As long as the brain is working okay, I think I'll do alright."
The best outside NZ propsect may be Steve Alker (another former Hamilton lad!), who was steady in Aus before Xmas without setting the woods on fire. 40-1 @ NZ TAB.
Lucas Parsons is one who often plays well in NZ, although Rod Pampling, another with a good track record here, is the more consistent player.
I'v put each way wagers on:
Rod Pampling
Peter O'Malley
Scott Hend
Andrew Bonhomme
Steve Alker
thanks to the great advice from you and Ian.
Weather mild and overcast this morning, little wind expected, nice fine afternoon so those in the early rounds may make hay before the sun shines, especially if the already fast greens harden up. Putting here will be a precious commodity.
Weather for tomorrow expected to be fine and warm, approx 24 celsius.
Good luck to all, let me know if you want a website with live scoring and I'll see if I can update from The Grange. Can also try and post today's tee times if required.

GLTA

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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST

 

[Ian]

Anders
Thanks for the report I hope you managed to get some decent odds on your selections, and have fun cheering them home

 

[Anders]

Cheers Ian.
Don't have a lot of books that cover golf events like this at present, so most of my bets are at Centrebet. If I do well this season - and I'm expecting to now that I've discovered madjack's site

- I'll make sure I shop around more.
Looking forward to a day in the sun watching the golf and a free lunch - work is hell

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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST

 

[Ian]

A frustrating first day with Pampling recovering from a shaky start to finish on level par and Bonhomme losing the plot and finishing at +6
What was more annoying were the other 2 players I mentioned Hend (in the lead at -5)
and Walters(-2) played well from late tee times with not a penny of mine on them
Anders
all the good scoring came later in the day from what I could tell any reasons?
Might just have a little on Walters if I can fet 33-1+

 

[Ian]

Walters is available at 33-1 with Firststake and Paddy Power, as low as 12-1 with Coral Eurobet

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Definitely a case of good news, bad news. The bad news is the 72-hole plays. Two of the three were decided at the cut and both were losses. Rumford missed the cut in 92nd place, but so did Bonhomme two shots further back, while Carolan had a poor first day and never recovered; he missed the cut by two shots, the same margin by which he was trailing Percey at the time. At least the third pick is still alive: Druce just made the cut, though he still has six shots to make up on Bransdon.

The good news is the outright plays. 100/1 shot David Smail is leading the tournament, so I wouldn't be too upset if inclement weather cancelled the last two rounds

With Peter O'Malley lying one shot back in 2nd, could this be a 2nd successive 1-2 on the ANZ Tour? To complete the picture, Greg Turner had a fine 66 on day two to jump to 21st and six shots behind Smail.

Hope to have some 3rd round plays later.

 

[Anders]

Hi guys, sorry I haven't posted since tournament start but been working flat out and haven't had a laptop with a 'net connection.
Pulled on a few favours to jump on here for a few mins.
Quite windy today at the Grange, although early third rd scores have been useful - the greens haven't been as fast as expected; that's why -10 could win the tournament.
Pleasing news for Stanley is that Greg Turner has continued his rd 2 form and is 3 under for the day and the tournament at the turn in rd 3, while Alker has picked up 2 shots to be tied with O'Malley (even after the 1st) at -5.
Will try and post from the office tomorrow morning before heading back to cover the final rd, which will hopefully bring nice dividends to all of us who are on the contenders

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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update:

Druce halved the deficit to Bransdon in the remaining 72-hole play, while Smail increased his lead to 3 shots

O'Malley dropped to 10th alongside Turner, so the second week in a row it could be a very profitable week with the outrights on the ANZ Tour.

4th round plays:

Michael Long to beat Peter Cliff -118 @ Centrebet
Martin Pettigrew to beat Andrew Tschudin +100 @ DAS [3 units]

 

[Anders]

She's looking good for the Madjacks crew

Smail fought back well y'day after dropping three shots early, while Alker went the other way on the back nine - including a climb up a tree to retrieve his ball - after burning up the front nine.
The Grange resorted to type y'day as the winds got up and the greens firmed. Similar conditions expected today.
I followed O'Malley for most of the day y'day as work wanted something done on Kiwi legend Bob Charles, his playing partner.
O'Malley was superb from tee to green but couldn't buy a putt - don't think I've ever seen a guy miss approx 10 putts by an inch or less like he did y'day. If his blade runs hot today he could shoot 65, so I'm taking a little more on a top-4 finish @ 3-1 at the NZ TAB.
Smail, Alker, Hend, Turner, O'Malley .... could be a great day for the team here

GLTA


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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST

 

[Anders]

Congatulations Stanley

What a way to start a winter Sunday morning in Old Blighty; a 100-1 tournament winner!
Could even afford to double bogey the last

I got a nice Alker top-4 collect @ 18s, so a fine tournament all round

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These letters are not the work of a wise man, but only a player and a scribe with a dangerous gambling habit - HST

 

[Stanley]

Thanks Anders

Your pre-tournament was a great help. Would not have looked at Smail had I not known accuracy was the key at The Grange.


Final update: 1-0-1 and +1.00 units for the day; 2-2-1 and -1.00 units for the week

A good day to finish a great tournament! Long beat Cliff by five shots, though it is a little disappointing that Pettigrew surrendered his one-shot lead on the last to only tie with Tschudin. But with the dead heat rather than ties lose rule at DAS, no harm done. Small loss on the week with the matchups, but more than made up for with the outrights!


Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +60.50 units

Smail hung on to secure his maiden victory and defeat Gatehouse and the experienced trio of Campbell, Alker and Chapman by two shots

Neither Turner or O'Malley made much progress on the day, finishing 7th and 12th respectively, but of little concern on such a profitable day.

Australasian Tour ytd:
Matchups/props: 6-7; -3.88 units
Outright plays: 3-3; +74.63 units

Will summarize for all Tours after conclusion of PGA Tour event each week.

 

[boris]

100/1 winner Stanley..... simply brilliant!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

 

[Ian]

Congrats Stan
Hope that kick starts your year

My 2 plays on Pampling and Walters fell away at the end, glad I didn't get too heavily involved