how did you lock onto that? No judgment here man - WINNING is winning.
I ask because one of my FAV baseball sources for capping are situational ats trends by team.
Just a sliver of the criteria for evaluation, but one i love is team as away underdog vs run line (not % of covers but avg +/- vs the line). Source:
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/trends/ats_trends/?sc=is_away_dog
I’m 6-1 playing the yankees in those spots.
So back to your setup / criteria, why does the 7.5 matter? I don’t have the stats in front of me but 7.5s go over like 60-65% of the time anyway. The thing with 7.5s is when its under, its not even close.
My guess would be start with home favs and their o/u cover %. On my site, SD, nym, oak were top 5 with oakland +3.2 runs over the total in that spot.
But kc is 9-16 in the spot and -1.1 on avg vs the over. Chisox also bottom 6-7 in mlb in the spot.
So just curious, personally i’d care more about the opponent than the # itself. Mets phillies arz houston minn are top 5 as road dogs vs the O/U. About +2 across the board.
So i’d look for as an example arz at nym where the mets are favored.
To wit, 5/30-6/2, the dbags were at the mets, and the dbags were favored in gm 1, under 6.5 covered 3-2 final.
The next 3 games the mets were favored (so Team with great home fav record vs the over against great road dog vs the over). The last 3 games of the series were all overs.
I mean i guess why go further than that? That’s 4-0 in 4 straight games with no regard for the actual o/u #
