Just saw that Oak is +1.5 against Phil. Was wondering if anyone can give me some info as to why Oak is not favored in this game. For the life of me I can't recall any past trends.
Oak +1.5- Am I missing something?
- Thread starter Mickstr68
- Start date
Great read on this game. I'm hammering this play with a sizable bet. Analysis will come in tomorrow's report.
Reason I posted here, is because I advise Raider-backers to jump on this now, before it drops to 1 or pick. Need I point out that the Raiders might be an inviting teaser play here up to 7.5 ?
Let the flames begin.
Nolan Dalla
Reason I posted here, is because I advise Raider-backers to jump on this now, before it drops to 1 or pick. Need I point out that the Raiders might be an inviting teaser play here up to 7.5 ?
Let the flames begin.
Nolan Dalla
Nolan, I had a feeling that this might be a candidate for one of your teaser "wheel" bets.
One thing I'm always cautious about are lines that seem too good to be true. And this seems to fit into that category. I get burned in the NBA by those lines every time, yet I still fall for them.
I do like using this as teaser material, but I'm still trying to find past trends between these two teams that can qualify why the lines might be chosen with PHILLY as the favorite. PHILLY! It just can't be!!
Any trend gatherers, I'd love to hear from you.
One thing I'm always cautious about are lines that seem too good to be true. And this seems to fit into that category. I get burned in the NBA by those lines every time, yet I still fall for them.
I do like using this as teaser material, but I'm still trying to find past trends between these two teams that can qualify why the lines might be chosen with PHILLY as the favorite. PHILLY! It just can't be!!
Any trend gatherers, I'd love to hear from you.
My two cents:
I agree with Nolan that this is an inviting teaser as Philly style of ball tends to play toward close games (ie good defense, short high percentage passes, etc.) IMHO this is an excellent game for the teaser discussion that has been started--I think this is a game that would probably go above 68% in a mathematical model if you could factor in Philly's style of play. I would ballpark it mid-70's percentage wise with the 6 extra points on the basis of going across 3, 4 6, and 7. As far as the sucker line, I don't know if I buy it. I would say the line is within a a point or two of where it should be (people jumping on the Philly bandwagon after MNF and the distinct edge of playing on a field that has a highlight reel of players blowing out knees or concussions). Keep in mind on a +1.5 line they are telling us Oakland would be favored on a neutral field which I think most cappers would agree with. Good thread that is going here--let's keep it up. If we respectfully agree/disagree with each other, everybody stands to learn something and win
Best of luck to everybody
A
I agree with Nolan that this is an inviting teaser as Philly style of ball tends to play toward close games (ie good defense, short high percentage passes, etc.) IMHO this is an excellent game for the teaser discussion that has been started--I think this is a game that would probably go above 68% in a mathematical model if you could factor in Philly's style of play. I would ballpark it mid-70's percentage wise with the 6 extra points on the basis of going across 3, 4 6, and 7. As far as the sucker line, I don't know if I buy it. I would say the line is within a a point or two of where it should be (people jumping on the Philly bandwagon after MNF and the distinct edge of playing on a field that has a highlight reel of players blowing out knees or concussions). Keep in mind on a +1.5 line they are telling us Oakland would be favored on a neutral field which I think most cappers would agree with. Good thread that is going here--let's keep it up. If we respectfully agree/disagree with each other, everybody stands to learn something and win
Best of luck to everybody
A
So far these are all the stats I could find. They come from an Inside Players Pro-football guide 2001 that I had in a heap of other mags I never look at. The stats are listed as Marc Lawrence's Team trends and do not include what has happened this year. Don't know who this person is, other's might, but just wanted everyone to know where I got them from.
Oak is:
7-0 ATS before any Denver Game
35-5 ATS when they win SU
21-0 ATS if opp is off a SU win
In the month of October Oak is:
12-3 ATS as Dogs since '91
8-2 ATS vs. opponents off SU away win
I couldn't find any Philly stats from this guy that would be applicable toward this game. Not even the month of the playing year.
Now, the Oakland Raider Website lists the history between these teams as the Raiders having an all-time record of 3-4-0 versus Philly. That's straight up of course. So it appears that the raiders have not had good success against Philly in the 7 regular season games they've played against each other. Maybe that's to reason for the Oak +1.5.
The last time that Oak played Philly in regular season play was '95 where they won 48-17.
Should you have other stats or have better knowledge of the publication that I'm taking this info from as an unreliable source, I'd like to hear about it.
Oak is:
7-0 ATS before any Denver Game
35-5 ATS when they win SU
21-0 ATS if opp is off a SU win
In the month of October Oak is:
12-3 ATS as Dogs since '91
8-2 ATS vs. opponents off SU away win
I couldn't find any Philly stats from this guy that would be applicable toward this game. Not even the month of the playing year.
Now, the Oakland Raider Website lists the history between these teams as the Raiders having an all-time record of 3-4-0 versus Philly. That's straight up of course. So it appears that the raiders have not had good success against Philly in the 7 regular season games they've played against each other. Maybe that's to reason for the Oak +1.5.
The last time that Oak played Philly in regular season play was '95 where they won 48-17.
Should you have other stats or have better knowledge of the publication that I'm taking this info from as an unreliable source, I'd like to hear about it.
Sportsline's Harmon forecast predicts a Philly win by the score 28-21. The reasoning was that Oakland's passing strength fits into Philly's defensive package.
I honestly don't look at the Harmon Forecast when deciding my games, but the lack of history between these two teams warranted a look at his prediction.
[This message has been edited by Mickstr68 (edited 10-23-2001).]
I honestly don't look at the Harmon Forecast when deciding my games, but the lack of history between these two teams warranted a look at his prediction.
[This message has been edited by Mickstr68 (edited 10-23-2001).]
Jerry Rice is very selfish,and because he is Jerry he has to get his touches.Tim Brown is not getting the ball near enough,having his worse year ever and Oakland was exposed vs Mia,Manning handed the Raiders a win on a silver platter,as the Raiders had a hard time moving it against a bad defense.Wheatly is down,and Eagles have Secondary to keep Oak wr frustrated.Gannon has not seen any real pressure this year,as Philly is up to a 2pt fav and possibly 3 by game time.
If the wind blows forget about it.
If the wind blows forget about it.
All over the Raiders at +2 sportsbook.com. Philly coming off an emotional win should fall prey to the monday night flop. Love them at + 8 in the tease!!! This line does not make sense if it were at oakland raiders would be -7!!!
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Dawgs are a man's best friend.
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Dawgs are a man's best friend.
I'll take Oakland +7 or +8. I don't know about +1.5.
They aren't a great cold-weather team. It's tough to win in Philly.
Good Luck!
They aren't a great cold-weather team. It's tough to win in Philly.
Good Luck!