Odds to win 2007 Kentucky Derby

[bodawg]

133rd Kentucky Derby Futures Odds*
2007 Kentucky Derby by Bodog Racebook

May 5th, 2007
Churchill Downs, Kentucky

Any Given Saturday 18/1

Arcata 50/1

Belgravia 50/1

Birdbirdistheword 18/1

Bold Start 30/1

Boutrous 50/1

Buffalo Man 50/1

C P West 50/1

Chelokee 40/1

Circular Quay 25/1

Cowtown Cat 50/1

Day Pass 50/1

Dreaming of Anna 50/1

Drums of Thunder 40/1

E Z Warrior 40/1

Exhale 40/1

Great Hunter 30/1

Hard Spun 10/1

Holy Roman Emperor 30/1

Jalil 50/1

Kong the King 50/1

Lawrence The Roman 40/1

Les Grands Trois 50/1

Liquidity 25/1

Minefield 50/1

Nobiz Like Shobiz 6/1

Notional 20/1

Our Sacred Honor 50/1

Out of Gwedda 50/1

Pirates Deputy 40/1

Ravel 22/1

Roman Commander 50/1

Saint Paul 50/1

Sam P. 40/1

Scat Daddy 28/1

Soaring By 45/1

Soldiers Dancer 50/1

Storm In May 40/1

Stormello 35/1

Street Sense 9/1 (2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile Winner)

Tenfold 50/1

Teofilo 50/1

Teuflesberg 50/1

Unbridled Express 30/1

Vicarino 50/1

Xchanger 50/1

Zanjero 50/1

Field (Any Other Horse) 4/1

*Odds as of date of posting.

Good luck!

 

[danmurphy jr]

Hard Spun 10/1 will be the Derby favorite.

 

[danmurphy jr]

Circular Quay 15/1 and Hard Spun 10/1 are working and barned at the Fairgrounds. Not much value to gamblers but they will win their share

 

[LUCKY 7]

Nobiz Like Showbiz.......Triple crown WINNER :00hour

You heard it hear first!!!!

 

[danmurphy jr]

Mom always said, never argue with a Pro, I woud give Street Sense 9/1 a good shot as well after winning the Breeder's Juvenile by 10. Gonna be a fun spring.

 

[danmurphy jr]

The Whirlaway, a minor stakes event for 3yo at Aqueduct Saturday kicks off the Derby run. One entrant Lawrence the Roman 40/1.
ML 6/5 w/Edgar Prado up, if he runs away and hides the Dutrow/Prado combo will ride again

 

[C-A-T-S]

I took Baroness Thatcher and Jump On In in Oaks pool 1 and Ravel and Exhale in Derby pool 1.

I think Ravel could be a monster. Exhale is pretty impressive too. We'll be able to tell more when he strectches out the first time.

Lucky, you could be right about Nobiz. He seems to be pretty versatile and distance will never be a question.

Until a horse breaks the BC Juvenile "curse", the winner of that race won't get any of my money in the future pools. Damn Street Sense was impressive though.

 

[Another Steve]

Ravel 22/1


Agreee with CATS

 

[danmurphy jr]

so far we have 5 or 6 Triple Crown Winners:
Lucky 7 times has Nobiz like Shobiz @6/1
I give you Hard Spun @10/1 who has Northern Dancer(M)-Point Given(F) genes and can go any distance in a hurry and has hid from those he has raced.

 

[danmurphy jr]

There will be some changes after this week. Some horses validated their Crown prospects, others did not. One however, made a case by losing badly. Circular Quay 6/5 got ready for a winning effort when 80/1 Tizzy told his rider to get off. JV had to steer around the fallen rider and still got 5th within eyesight of the winner.
Speaking of JV/Pletcher, new team, have Lawyer Ron 4/5 in his 1st ever allowance race(red flag). Why?

 

[danmurphy jr]

Larry Jones moved Hard Spun over to Oaklawn for the $250,000 Southwest next Monday - Presidents Day. He'll be staying there. Action will be hot and heavy on the Crown hopefuls. No value for the bettors though.

 

[C-A-T-S]

Also watch Anygivensaturday Saturday in the Sam Davis. He could dominate that field and start getting a little more publicity. He is giving the field 6 pounds but as long as Mott's horse doesn't get loose out front, Pletcher/John V. should get to the winner's circle pretty easily.

 

[C-A-T-S]

The Fountain of Youth is starting to look like the first really good prep. Stormello, Nobiz Like Showbiz, Johannesburg Star, and possibly a few others are aiming for this race. I bet Stormello pretty heavily in the Juvenile but now I'm not so sure he wants to go more than a mile. This will tell the tale. I also like Johannesburg Star. Any horse out of Johannesburg cannot be overlooked these days.

 

[danmurphy jr]

Southwest Stakes - $250,000
Oaklawn Park- 9th - Monday

#9 Hard Spun 9/5 A loss in this race would assure a price in his next Prep. Terrible post
Others with a shot:
#3 Going Ballistic 10/1
#1 Xchanger 6/1
#6 Forty Grams 8/1
#5 Officer Rocket 3/1
#7 Our Sacred Honor 6/1
Pletcher/Velazquez
#4 Teuflesberg 8/1

 

[danmurphy jr]

#4 Teuflesberg bobbled at the break and still wired in a super slow 1:38.2 mile to pay 48 bucks. The fav. ran 4th at 1/2 - made enough $12,500 to pay expenses. Will Mario ride him again??

 

[Tommy Shelby]

I was there and there will not be an Oaklawn "home" contender this year. Oaklawn likes to claim the winner of this race and Derby their horse like Smarty JOnes and Lawyer Ron...these were weak with weak times. Nobody even contested the early lead.

Maybe later after a couple of races some of these peak. That is what seems to happen with 3 yr olds. That is why the favorite rarely wins.

 

[danmurphy jr]

T-That's a good analysis as any. You're right, the wrong horse fronted that field. My guess is to throw that race out. Hard Spun was restrained, wide and still was within 3. I can't get past 138.2 hough. 10K claimers do that

 

[danmurphy jr]

FYI - Larry Jones, trainer of Hard Spun as much as tossed out the 4th place finish in the Southwest saying the 9 post and rail bias, not Mario Pina caused the disappointing result. "Mario Pina is the rider" Could be.

 

[C-A-T-S]

Buffalo Man is off the Derby Trail. For some reason they are having a hard time getting Stormello to Florida for the Fountain of Youth. That race will still feature Scat Daddy, Nobiz, and a horse I really like, Johannesburg Star. Should be a good one.

 

[C-A-T-S]

8 Scat Daddy Velazquez J R 120 13.80 6.20 2.80
4 Stormello Desormeaux K J 122 6.20 3.00
5 Nobiz Like Shobiz Velasquez C 122 2.10


Times in 5ths: :231 :46 1:094 1:351 1:49

Times in 100ths: :23.21 :46.06 1:09.89 1:35.36 1:49.11

Also ran: Adore the Gold, Hal's My Hope, Drums of Thunder, Meritocracy, Divine Master and Johannesburg Star

Winning Trainer: Pletcher Todd A - Owner: Scatuorchio, James, T., Tabor, Michael, B.

$1 Exacta (8-4) Paid $37.60

$1 Trifecta (8-4-5) Paid $78.50

$1 Superfecta (8-4-5-9) Paid $252.70

$1 Pick 3 (2-7-8) 3 Correct Paid $1,037.40 Pick 3 Pool $89,484

$2 Daily Double (7-8) Paid $44.00 Daily Double Pool $99,634


I was impressed with how game Stormello was in the stretch. Johannesburg Star was last. I would say the top 4 definitely move forward from this one.