Odds to win European Soccer Leagues

[flapjack]

This worked out really well for me last year, so I'm placing a large chunk of my stakes in odds to win individual leagues again this year. I've placed the following:

FRENCH LIGUE 1
OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS ML-225
788 To Win 309 +309 Win
(If i had more in my bank, it would have been larger. Awful odds but it just isnt a competition in France anymore.)

ODDS TO WIN HOLLAND CASINO EREDIVISIE
PSV EINDHOVEN +110
250 To Win 275 +275 Win
(Still the class of the league. Ajax is improved, but PSV beat them by 26 pts last year - their not that improved. The 2 teams between PSV and Ajax last year have gotten weaker.)

ODDS TO WIN GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2006-2007 WERDEN BREMEN +400
200 To Win 800 -200 Loss
(Love the odds on this one. I think its a toss up between Breman and Bayern - maybe a slight edge to Bayern. With Breman and +400 and Bayern at -200, gotta go with those odds)

ODDS TO WIN GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2006-2007 [52] HAMBURGER SV +700 -30 Loss
30 To Win 210
(3rd best team, just a little insurance)


Also looking at Chelsea -230 and Real Madrid +185.
Terrible odds, but can anyone realistically compete with Chelsea over 38 games? Can't see it. As far as Real Madrid, Cappello seems to do nothing other than win leagues. Bringing in his boys from Juve, it should be a battle at the top. Just like taking Werder in Germany, not convinced they will win it all, but the odds are too good a value for what should be a 50/50 2 team race.

I'm going to hold off on these 2 leagues since they dont start for a few weeks. Any thoughts on Spain or England?

 

[HoopsGuru]

flap, hamburger is +1000 at the greek if you haven't put that in already. where did you get that french bet, the greek & pinny don't have french league lines out yet? thanks! good luck on your picks, tailed you on a few yesterday in cl and won a little bit.

 

[flapjack]

flap, hamburger is +1000 at the greek if you haven't put that in already. where did you get that french bet, the greek & pinny don't have french league lines out yet? thanks! good luck on your picks, tailed you on a few yesterday in cl and won a little bit.

Too late for me on the Hamburg pk. That is a nice price, but I don't plan on cashing that one in if Breman does their job - I hope. As for France, I posted it, but the league already got under way last week so I know my book doesn't post the odds after the league starts, but I would think some would post adjusted odds during the season, maybe? Glad you won yesterday. My strategy sucked. All but a couple teams I liked yesterday won, yet I still lost $. Brillient

I'm taking Newcastle today on the ML and parlayed with Lyon this weekend. Both at close to -300 odds, but should cruise.

 

[HoopsGuru]

yeah, yesterday in your first post you mentioned six teams you liked, i took them each to win a unit. ended up 4-2 +1.6 units i believe. also enjoy your soccer posts, thanks and good luck! i still am pumped up about that klose prop you had for the cup, won a good sum on that one.

 

[Wells]

Hmmm, i think i like Ajax to win Eredivisie and Hamburge to win the German league and obviously Lyon to win the french league. No competition in France.

 

[moe777]

gl flap..
with you on chelski and psv ,like chelski in the champs leauge this year also.

 

[flapjack]

Taking a closer look, I think there is the possibility of one team giving Chelsea problems. Going to take a shot on Liverpool. Their defense and mid-field are great. They have shown alot of improvement with Benitez in charge the past 2 years and if Belemy lives up to his potential and doesnt have a melt down, they just may give Chelsea a run for it. They've gotten some big wins versus Chelsea in the past few years in big games and I think there's at least the potential for problems with too many stars and lack of cohesion with Chelsea. That being said, Chelsea may just crush everyone and win every game so I'm covering my self with Chelsea:


ODDS TO WIN ENGLISH PREMIER 2006 - 07
LIVERPOOL FC +700
150 to win $1050 -150 Loss

ODDS TO WIN ENGLISH PREMIER 2006 - 07
CHELSEA FC PK-230
345 to win $150 -345 Loss

 

[flapjack]

Real Madrid To Win La Liga +150 100 to win 150
Waited to long on this one, lines dropped from +180. +150 Winner

 

[flapjack]

Haven't had a ton of luck in the Champions League individual games, but have had some really good luck taking props to win tourneys/leagues in the past.

I have to believe that over 6 games, the cream will rise to the top.


TO WIN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP B
INTER MILAN-115
Risking:230To Win:200 -230 Loss
Inter may be the deepest/most talented team in the world right now. Lot of presure for them to produce here. Bayern is weaker than they have been in a long time.


TO WIN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP C
PSV EINDHOVEN+360
Risk 60To Win:216 -60 Loss
PSV gets Liverpool at home this week to start the tourney. PSV have played great at home in Champs league. Liverpool not in good form right now. They get a win vs LP to start and they can take this group at some nice odds.


TO WIN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP D
AS ROMA+150
Risking: 200To Win: 300 -200 Loss
Valencia is the better team, but I think Roma's style and formations will be difficult for teams to figure out. Plus, I think they are a team on the rise and have a great home field advantage.


TO WIN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP F
MANCHESTER UNITED-285
Risking: 400To Win: 140 +140 Win
Should not struggle in this group.


TO WIN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP G
ARSENAL FC-140
Risking: 280To Win: 200 +200 Win
Hamburg is not looking like a strong team this year. After last years run, gotta take Arsenal again.

TO WIN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP H
AC MILAN-385
Risking: 500To Win: 129 +129 Win
Will not lose a game and should cruise through.

 

[flapjack]

With just Real Madrid bet still pending, I'm sitting at -162. Breman and Chelsea absolutely killed me - Werder was a brutal $1000 swing in the wrong direction at the end of the season.

Looking at Euro Cup Qualifying group winners

Portugal -150
Poland the only other team with a shot in the group, have a 5 pt lead with one extra game played right now, but cant see it lasting. Portugal may sweep the rest of the schedule - 2 ties at the worst. Poland's gotta play 5 of their last 7 on the road and are an unpredictible team.

Italy +150
Italy suffered a bad start - world cup hang over, but are back to being the best squad in Europe. Only 2 pts behind Ukraine & France. Ukr is crumbling and still must play France 2x. Italy has the easiest schedule left and gets France at home which should decide the winner.

Turkey -175
Turkey's rolling in a weak group. They just crushed their nearest competitor - Greece in Greece 4-1. No one else can challenge other than Greece. Tie breaker is head to head, so unless Greece can win 5-1 in Turkey, they have the tie breaker as well.

Romania +250
Taking a shot on Romania. They are playing great and got a 0-0 draw vs the Dutch in Netherlands. It Could come down to Netherlands trip to Romania. Currently sitting 3 pts behind Neth with a game in hand.

 

[flapjack]

Odds to Win Euro Qual Group
Portugal 400 to win 267 -400 Loser

Italy 150 to win 225 +225 Winner

Turkey 500 to win 286 -500 Loser

Romania 150 to win 375 +375 Winner



Odds to Win Euro Cup
Italy 200 to win 1000
These odds will only go down - assuming Italy makes the tourney - as other big teams fail to qualify.

Odds to Win Copa America
Argentina 150 to win 225 Loss -150
With Brazil bringing the B team, Argentina is so much better than every team in this tourney. I'll grab the +150 odds.

 

[flapjack]

Gold Cup Odds
USA +200? To good to be true
400 to win 800 edited to double bet +800 Winner

Mexico/USA's all time record versus the rest of the CONCAF in this tourney: 46-5-1!!! Thats right 1 loss and 5 draws in 52 games played. (Mex lost to Canada once).

In years past, they've invited other teams from other federations to make the field stronger. No teams from other federations this year to knock out US or Mexico. They will both romp in this field with their "A" teams playing. Then, they put Mexico as +125 and USA as +200? What? The final will be played in the US where the US absolutley owns Mexico in recent years.

 

[flapjack]

Thanks to the US of A and Real Madrid, now at +788 :00hour

And, back down to +633 with the Copa America pick.

 

[flapjack]

Adding one for the '07-'08 Season I love:

Bayern Munich -150
750 to win 500+500 Winner

Might seem a bad value bet to take a team at less than 1 to 1 odds to win an 18 team league when they didnt even finish in a CL spot last year. But, they will be just at an entirely different talent level than the rest of the league. This team is beyond stacked with its new addtions - Klose, Toni and Ribery. They are out to prove a point. No Champs League to get distracted with due to crappy finish last year will let them foucs on the task at hand. They should dominate. Cant see this team losing much/any in the league this year.

The rest of the leagues are looking tough to pick.

 

[Zerwas]

Good pick!

They already dominated the league cup defeating Bremen, Stuttgart and Schalke with relativ ease.

 

[flapjack]

Taking a couple shots on some medium-long shots insured by the favorite:

Odds to win French League:
Marseille +500
100 to win 500 -100 Loser
&
Lyon -200
200 to win 100+100 Winner

Cant see any way it could not be one of these 2 teams. Lyon, going for their 7th straight title are stacked and at an entirely different level than the rest of the league as always. But, alot of turnover, new coach, some disgruntled players and an increasing focus on Europe instead of France means maybe there is a chance for a loss of focus. Marseille finished 2nd last year, lead by Ribery who was sold to Bayern Munich. But, they used the money to bring in alot of talent and already have alot of pieces in place. They actually may be stronger despite the Ribery loss if those additions fit in. And, who knows, maybe they sneak up on Lyon this year. And, if its not them to do the sneaking, then its not going to be anybody.

Odds to Win Euro 2008 Qualifying Group E
England +300
100 to win 300 -100 Loser&
Croatia -117
117 to win 100 +100 Winner

Croatia seem to have a strong hold on the lead with only 5 games left. 3 of their 5 remaining games are against teams they will take care of easily - Estonia, Andorra, Macedonia. But, if one team is to challenge them, it should be England. They are back in the pack as they started with alot of away games and some really bad results, but they have a huge advantage going down the stretch with 4 of their last 5 at home and with Beckham back in the squad, the seem to be playing better. They should pick up alot of points with the home advantage taking out Russia and Israel in the process. And, if Croatia slips and they can pull to within 3 points before their last game, they finish off with Croatia at home.

I think most likely I'll push on both, but can't see either of these ending up with another team on top. So worth a shot on some underdogs covered by the favorite.

 

[flapjack]

Adding 07-08 Champions League:
Lyon +1000
50 to win 500 -50 Loser

After a couple years of being everybody's dark horse for the tourney, they are being looked past. They have a better coach and improved side with less presure. Could finallly be their year to bust through.

 

[flapjack]

Currently at +338 after the Euro Quals - Turkey and Portugal really F'd me, unfortunately both those peices of sh*t still qualified at the #2 spot.


At the half way mark of the club season, Bayern is looking OK, tied at the top hoped they'd have a comfortable lead and Lyon is looking like they will cover my awful Marseille bet.

Looking at the Euros next year, I really like Romania at +3500 and if I liked Italy at +500 months ago when their qualification was in doubt, I love it now at +650. Someone from that group will win it all. The Germans are overrated.

 

[flapjack]

Romania +3500 to win Euro '08
100 to win 3500

 

[flapjack]

UEFA CUP Winner

Taking shot on 3 of the remaining 8 Teams:

Rangers +1100 225 to win 2475 -225 Loser
Bayern +175 300 to win 525 -300 Loser
Fiorentina +550 100 to win 550 -100 Loser

That will net:
Rangers Win +2075
Bayern Win +200
Fiorentina Win 0
Anyone Else -625

This is Bayern's tourney to win - if they are focused on it. But Rangers would avoid them till the Final which is in Manchester. I really think Rangers and Fiorentina will tcb this round and met in the semi's. PSV is the only other team that can challenge, but they'd most likely have to go through all 3 teams above to win it and I dont think their as good as any of them.

Champ League Winner

Man U +300 50 to win 150 +150 Winner