Oddsmakers: Mayweather will top Marquez in decision

[Lumi]

Oddsmakers: Mayweather will top Marquez in decision

Floyd Mayweather Jr.?s self-imposed 21-month hiatus from boxing has not discouraged oddsmakers or the betting marketplace from making him a heavy wagering favorite in his return to the ring Saturday.

Mayweather figures to enter his fight with Juan Manuel Marquez at the MGM Grand as a significantly bigger favorite than he was in either of his two most recent bouts, against Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya, both in 2007.

Mayweather is listed as a minus 360 favorite (risk $3.60 to net $1) to beat Marquez, a plus 280 underdog (risk $1 to net $2.80) according to odds at all Station Casinos properties. Other books around town, including the Las Vegas Hilton, have Mayweather as a larger favorite at minus 400 with a price of plus 330 on Marquez. (As always, odds vary by casino property and can change by the minute.)

The round proposition offered in Las Vegas sports books suggests the fight is likely to go the distance, which makes sense considering the matchup pits a tactical expert in Mayweather against a counterpuncher in Marquez.

The round prop at Station properties asks whether the fight will last 12 full rounds, with a price of minus 125 on the ?will go 12? side, and a price of plus 105 on ?will not go 12.? Some books have an over/under of 11 1/2 rounds, with a premium of minus 150 on the ?over.?

In the result proposition, Marquez to win by knockout is listed at 8-1 and Marquez to win by a decision is 4-1. Mayweather to win by knockout is an 8-5 choice with Mayweather by a decision 4-5, according to Station odds. It?s 15-1 the bout will end in a draw.

As a point of comparison, a prominent offshore sports book favors a Mayweather knockout (plus 112) over a Mayweather decision (plus 165), in contrast to the Las Vegas consensus.

Mayweather opened as a minus 300 favorite against Marquez on an early line from Las Vegas Sports Consultants, though Station oddsmakers opted to open Mayweather at minus 430.

Those figures are closer to the odds Mayweather commanded as a big favorite against Zab Judah in 2006 or Arturo Gatti in 2005 than the lines on Mayweather?s clashes with Hatton or De La Hoya.

Before he manhandled Hatton on the way to a 10th-round technical knockout in December 2007, Mayweather was listed as a betting favorite in the range of minus 200 to minus 280. The price was likely held in check by legions of British Hatton fans backing their man at the windows.

A 2-1 favorite against De La Hoya, Mayweather delivered for his backers with a split-decision victory in May 2007.

Mayweather was a favorite in the range of 4-1 to 5-1 leading to his unanimous-decision victory against Judah. The line on Mayweather opened at minus 360 and closed around minus 500 in his fight against Gatti, which Mayweather won by a sixth-round stoppage.

Given the lopsided betting line, it?s tempting to dismiss Saturday?s bout as a poor betting fight. It?s not without intrigue, though. The price on Mayweather is based in part on the physical matchup between the two men. Besides his vaunted defensive and technical skills, Mayweather is projected to have an advantage in strength and power. His edge in these areas depends, of course, on how much muscle Marquez has been packing on while training in Mexico City.

Underdog players could find it tough to resist Marquez, often considered one of the top three boxers in the sport, at such an attractive price against anyone, let alone a fighter returning from a layoff of nearly two years.

Mayweather, for his part, has a stock quip he uses to dismiss suggestions that Camp Marquez has solved the mystery of how to defeat him.

?All 39 had a plan,? Mayweather says, referring to his 39-0 record as a professional.

If Mayweather makes it 40-for-40 Saturday, bettors will probably have to wait for a proposed match against Manny Pacquiao to find Mayweather in the neighborhood of pick ?em at the betting windows.

One speculative (but real-money) Las Vegas betting line had Mayweather-Pacquiao as a pick ?em earlier this year.

The revised odds on that fight, if it does take place, will be based not only on the outcome of Saturday?s fight but on Mayweather?s performance in it.

 

[Lumi]

Mayweather vs. Marquez: Fight odds and prediction

Mayweather vs. Marquez: Fight odds and prediction

Mayweather vs. Marquez: Fight odds and prediction


Floyd ?Money? Mayweather Jr. demanded an eight-figure payday for his return to the ring after a nearly two-year layoff. Those who back him won?t find the big dollar figures so easy to come by.

Bettors will be asked to pay a steep price to back Mayweather when he squares off Saturday against Mexico?s Juan Manuel Marquez at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

The battle-tested Marquez is thought to be an opponent notable enough to draw a crowd and sell pay-per-view buys, but far from a serious threat to put the first blemish on Mayweather?s undefeated record.

The MGM?s price currently sits at Mayweather -420 and Marquez +340, though sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback said the price on Mayweather has reached as high as -500, and he wouldn?t be surprised to see it rival that number again before the opening bell.

?It seems the threshold is at -400 for Mayweather,? Stoneback said. ?That?s where professional bettors are willing to jump in and lay the price.?

Stoneback said serious boxing bettors usually wait for an onslaught of underdog money to come in ? usually from tourist bettors who are looking for a big score on a small investment ? to drive down the price on the favorite. In this fight, the opening price on Mayweather at -350 might be the best value they will see.

The sportsbook manager said moving Mayweather to -500 prompted enough action on Marquez at +400 to balance the handle and drop Mayweather?s price a little. But he doubts it will sink to -400 or lower.

?Smaller bettors don?t want to bet a lot to win a little,? he said. ?Those who bet large sums of money have no problem laying -400 if they think the price is right.?

In addition to the moneyline bets on the outcome, the MGM and other sportsbooks are offering round-by-round props and wagers on the manner of the result. Mayweather by decision has been a popular pick, opening at even money and currently at -125. Mayweather by knockout sits at +160, while Marquez by decision goes for +600 and by knockout at +420.

The over/under of rounds is set at 11.5, and gamblers have pushed the price of the over to -160 or thereabouts in most gambling parlors.

Determining which boxer provides the better value is a subjective matter. Fighting at a ?catch weight? of 144 pounds, Marquez will be nearly 10 pounds heavier than he ever has been. Mayweather will be fighting at his leanest weight since 2005.

While conventional analysis suggests Mayweather, 32, will be too strong and too fast for the 35-year-old Marquez, those making a case for backing the underdog have some factors working in their favor.

For one, some question whether Mayweather (39-0, 25 KOs) will have some ring rust after his long hiatus since beating Ricky Hatton in December 2007. The Marquez fight was postponed from its original July 18 date when Mayweather suffered a rib injury during training.

Marquez (50-4-1, 37 KOs) has been active and effective, knocking out lightweight champion Juan Diaz in a dominating performance earlier this year. There are some boxing analysts who believe Marquez has the power and punch volume to give Mayweather trouble, particularly if he can land some early shots.

?I?ve heard some talk from the sharper people that Marquez has a chance to upset Mayweather,? Stoneback said. ?The combination of his power and Mayweather?s layoff play into their theory of why he has a chance to beat him.?

The Mexican fighter also saw his star rise on the strength of two hotly contested bouts against Manny Pacquaio, who assumed the unofficial title of ?pound-for-pound? champion during Mayweather?s absence. Marquez fought Pacquaio to a draw and a close decision loss.

Moreover, as often is the case, there has been some controversy surrounding the Mayweather camp. In the months leading up to the fight, there has been speculation that he is being investigated for failure to pay taxes and has other serious debts. The boxer has refused to comment on his finances. Also, Pacquaio?s camp recently filed a slander suit against Floyd Mayweather Sr., the boxer?s father, who has accused Pacquaio of using steroids.

Even so, if Mayweather Jr. has been distracted by the subplots, he?s doing a good job of disguising it. His pre-fight workouts have drawn rave reviews and, at a news conference this week, he sounded as brash and confident as ever.

?I?m looking sharp in the gym. I feel fast, I?m strong and my timing is there,? Mayweather said. ?I feel the same way I felt before I left. Actually, I feel a bit better. I think my body got a chance to heal and I just grew mentally as a person.?

Prediction: Marquez will come in determined, aggressive and in great physical shape. He will hound Mayweather, and has a chance if he can land some flurries. But Mayweather has a knack for staying out of trouble, and will likely wear down his opponent with his elite ring generalship and superior speed. Mayweather wins by majority decision.

 

[Lumi]

Mayweather vs. Marquez

Mayweather vs. Marquez

Mayweather vs. Marquez


It?s not every day that a caliber fighter such as Floyd Mayweather Jr. takes nearly a two-year hiatus from the sport after just beginning to reach the pinnacle of his career. Ok, there was of course Sugar Ray Leonard?s 1986 return win to the ring against boxing?s great ?Marvelous? Marvin Hagler. And if you really want to take a trip down memory lane then there?s no forgetting Sugar Ray Robinson?s comeback to the sport after a two and a half-year layoff in 1955.

But every fighter, location and the match itself takes on a life of its own. In this case we have the tale of one of boxing?s most enigmatic characters deciding that his time to relax on the white sand of some far away island is still yet a far distance from reality.

The other half of this story is Juan Manuel Marquez. Sixteen years of blood, sweat and tears in the professional arena have resulted in claiming ownership to the current WBA and WBO lightweight belts. But even before earning his last two titles by defeating former lightweight champion, Juan Diaz back in February, Marquez laid siege to the IBF, WBA and WBO featherweight titles including a stint as WBC Super Featherweight champ.

Let?s be crystal clear; Juan Manuel Marquez is a superior fighter. Why the need to make such a bold statement? Because many in the sport question Floyd Mayweather?s motivation for signing on to exchange blows with a boxer who?s never seen the likes of the welterweight division. Some have even gone so far as to question Marquez?s inferior skills compared to Mayweather?s. And this would be doing Marquez great injustice.

This brings us to what will be the scene of the crime on Saturday, the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas. Most books decided to open the fight at $3.00 in favor of Mayweather (bet $300 to make $100). But that number has since skyrocketed to minus-400 for Mayweather as of mid-week. For those even taking a moment to think about taking the ?dog here the value is high. Marquez is catching a return price of +300 (bet $100 to make $300), that compared to the +220 figure set when this match was rescheduled from the original July 18th date due to a sustained Mayweather rib injury.

What we have here is a lot of money moving in Mayweather?s direction due to several factors. The most obvious issue is Marquez?s lack of experience at the 141 to 147-pound Welterweight division. And put experience to the side in favor of looking at the weight factor in terms of power. Sure, speed kills but so does an upper cut to the chin from a naturally heavier boxer.

Talking about speed, while Marquez is known for his fleet footedness and devastating combinations, let?s not forget what?s been Mayweather?s go-to skill. Floyd has blistering speed in both hands as anyone who?s watched just one of his fight?s can attest. It?s the power he lacks compared to other names in the division like Ricky Hatton, Ricardo Mayorga and Shane Mosley. The more important question to ask is how will the nearly two-year layoff affect Mayweather?

To put it simply, Mayweather will surely show some signs of rust in the early goings. But don?t think for a minute that Marquez will be able to coast to the finish line based on ?Pretty Boy Floyd?s? time spent outside of the ring. Mayweather will look choppy and inconsistent, but when his boxing instincts kick in expect an exchange which has the makings of an instant classic.

What could serve as a guideline for betting this fight may very well rest in Manny Pacquiao?s highly controversial split decision win over Juan Manuel Marquez on March 15, 2008 (their second meeting). The disputed scorecard may not exactly be the tool for gauging Saturday night?s expected result. And don?t look to Pacquiao?s explosive style in that throw down to closely match what Mayweather will bring to the table. But what we can draw parallels to is how close this fight will be in terms of energy, punch output and speed. We might hear Mayweather Jr. always talking to the media about how well he?s able to adjust boxing styles from fight to fight. Guess what? Marquez is no different. Case in point; wins against Juan Diaz, Joel Casamayor, Marco Antonio Barrera and, of course, the draw against Manny Pacquiao in their first fight back in 2004.

For betting purposes, the value to take Marquez is no doubt a highly intriguing investment. And while the odds are stacked against the Mexican born and raised fighter this is just the very nature of boxing itself. It?s just the large, looming cloud of whether or not Marquez will make the successful transition in terms of climbing up in weight that has us gamblers walking in circles.

We?re still left debating at the water cooler. Is Mayweather Jr. ready to return to the canvas with a vengeance? Can Marquez impose his hand and foot speed to level the playing field? The questions are numerous but the fact remains, Saturday will test boxing?s two great warriors in Las Vegas. The real question is, will you be watching?

Round Prop

Over 11.5 ? (-135)
Under 11.5 ? (-105)

Final Outcome Props

Draw or Technical Draw ? 28/1
Floyd Mayweather by Decision or Technical Decision ? 5/6
Floyd Mayweather by KO or TKO or Disqualification ? 10/13
Juan Manuel Marquez by Decision or Technical Decision ? 11/2
Juan Manuel Marquez by KO or TKO or Disqualification ? 9/1