OK Let's get the real Week 1 discussion going...

[S-Love]

Thursday
121 SYRACUSE
7:45 PM
122 BRIGHAM YOUNG 3 2?

123 SAN DIEGO ST.
10:00 PM
124 FRESNO ST. 16?


451 WAKE FOREST 4 3?/3
7:30 PM
452 NORTHERN ILL.

Friday
137 OKLAHOMA 37
8:00 PM
138 TULSA

Saturday
139 WASHINGTON
12:00 PM
140 MICHIGAN 4? 5/6

141 KANSAS
12:30 PM
142 IOWA ST. 19 20?

143 COLORADO 9 9?/9
1:00 PM
144 COLORADO ST.

145 NEVADA-RENO
3:00 PM
146 WASHINGTON ST. 27 28?

147 NORTHWESTERN
3:30 PM
148 AIR FORCE 2 Pk

149 ILLINOIS 6? 7
3:30 PM
150 MISSOURI

151 VIRGINIA
3:30 PM
152 FLORIDA ST. 27

153 BAYLOR
5:00 PM
154 CALIFORNIA 9 9?

155 WYOMING
5:30 PM
156 TENNESSEE 35 34/32?

157 VANDERBILT
6:00 PM
158 GEORGIA TECH 20? 21

159 E. CAROLINA 14
6:00 PM
160 DUKE

161 UAB
6:00 PM
162 FLORIDA 31? 33

163 MISSISSIPPI ST.
6:00 PM
164 OREGON 11 10?

165 NAVY
7:00 PM
166 SMU 11

167 CLEMSON
7:45 PM
168 GEORGIA 9

169 OKLAHOMA ST.
8:00 PM
170 LOUISIANA TECH Pk 1

171 MARYLAND
8:00 PM
172 NOTRE DAME 1

173 HOUSTON
8:00 PM
174 RICE 7 8

175 WISCONSIN 4? 3?
8:45 PM
176 NEV. LAS VEGAS

Added Games of interest
453 C. FLORIDA
12:10 PM
454 PENN ST. 14? 14/13?

455 AKRON
12:10 PM
456 IOWA 18

457 MIDDLE TENN. ST.
12:30 PM
458 ALABAMA 19

459 E. MICHIGAN
1:00 PM
460 MICHIGAN ST. 37 37?

461 CONNECTICUT
7:00 PM
462 BOSTON COLLEGE 35? 35

463 TROY STATE
7:00 PM
464 NEBRASKA 38

465 SAN JOSE ST.
7:00 PM
466 ARKANSAS ST.

467 UL LAFAYETTE
7:00 PM
468 TEXAS A&M 30?

469 UL MONROE
7:00 PM
470 MISSISSIPPI 33 34

471 NEW MEXICO ST.
7:00 PM
472 S. CAROLINA 24 23?

473 MIAMI-OHIO
7:00 PM
474 N. CAROLINA 9? 9

475 OHIO U.
7:00 PM
476 PITTSBURGH 20 20?/20

477 N. TEXAS
8:00 PM
478 TEXAS 40 39

479 IDAHO
8:00 PM
480 BOISE ST. 22? 23

481 UTAH 8? 9?/10
9:00 PM
482 UTAH ST.

 

[mw]

Where did you find these numbers? What books are they from? I can't find lines at the usual sites.

 

[S-Love]

scoresandodds.com

lines for the week usually up at 8:00 every Sunday night for the following week's NCAA

 

[hellah10]

I like...

Miami(OH) +9.5
Middle Tennessee St. +20
Mizzou +7.5
Florida St. -26.5
LA Tech -1
Northern Illinois +2.5

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

I like Houston +7
Missouri +7.5
Georgia -8.5
Colo St +9.5

 

[hello there]

I see one game that pops out to me, BUT, again, I think it's good to wait another week. Patience is a virtue.

 

[Chenker]

I like-

BYU
Miss St
Maryland
Colorado St.

 

[BASON]

I really like MD here at +3. This line has moved 6 points since MD was first posted as a 3 point favorite. The Bruce Perry situation has been way overblown. The offensive system made him last year and the backups are strong and capable. Watch out for the freshman Merrills. MD has a very experienced offensive line and linebacker core on defensive. I actually expect both QBs to play in this game, but O'Brien will likely start. He is the better and more accurate passer, but Kelly is the preferred QB since he can run the ball and the option. Friedgen will have this team ready and confident, and I think Notre Dame will struggle offensively in this game

Take the 3 and play the money line.

 

[Felonious Monk]

Fresno State -17 vs. San Diego St.
After their last minute loss to an average Wisconsin team, Fresno will be looking to take out some of their frustrations on San Diego State, who is simply in a different league than Wisconsin (i.e., SDSU is the Baylor/Kansas of the Mountain West). Fresno definitely answered the critics in regards to their QB situation...Grady looks comfortable. Furthermore, Fresno has a game of experience under their collective belts against a decent team. I see a pasting by Fresno, 4+ TD's.

Oklahoma -37 at Tulsa
Um... what? 37 points? When was the last time that OU beat a team by 37? November 3rd, 2001, actually, when they hosted... Tulsa. The Sooners beat the ever-loving crap out of the Golden Hurricane, 58-0 in Norman. Can the Sooners repeat that feat (or at least a 37-point pasting) in Tulsa this time in their first game of the season (they played Tulsa near the end of conference play last season, due to 9-11 cancellations)? I say yes, but not because their offense will be doing well. Rather, they'll take away a bunch of turnovers and get huge special teams play-making.

Iowa State -20 vs. Kansas
Are you kidding me? The same Iowa State team that couldn't keep Florida State under 38 won't have to worry about anything similar happening vs. Kansas... Mark Mangino's new offense will stop itself. And Iowa State's offense has a game of experience; they'll be looking polished and explosive as Seneca Wallace leads them to a complete blowout of KU. I'll take the Cyclones without a second thought.

Colorado -8.5 at Colorado State
The Rams beat a mediocre Virginia team to start the season. Good for them. Now, if they can only stop Colorado's backfield, they'll move to 2-0. Unfortunately, they won't, as CU will have an absolute field day on the ground, regardless of their unproven O-line. I think Colorado is vastly overrated, but this line looks too good to be true. I'll take the Buffs.

Illinois -7 at Missouri
Most here know what the rest of the country (and the bookies) apparently don't know: Mizzou is an incredibly average team with an average amount of talent. QB questions be damned, Illinois loses only 3 other starters on offense and 4 on defense from last year's BCS team. Missouri returns a similar number of players from its team... a team that went 4-7. On paper, I don't understand a mere 7-point spread in favor of the Illini. Does someone know something that I don't know? Give me the Fighting Illini and give the lousy touchdown.

Louisiana Tech -1 vs. Oklahoma State
My heart says, "Cowboys," but my mind screams, "Bulldogs!" Luke McCown is the real deal, and he lost almost nothing significant on offense. Yes, OSU has a solid (and mostly unproven) QB in Fields, but I'm thinking little defense from either team will result in a surprising shoot-out that favors Tech and its greater offensive experience in the end.

Maryland +3 vs. Notre Dame
No way. I'm simply dumbfounded at this line. I realize that the line is shifting in ND's favor because of the absence of Perry however the Terps seem to have enough depth at TB/FB to run the ball on poor Notre Dame when you consider that almost the entire Terrapin O-line returns this year. Is Tyrone Willingham going to so vastly change Irish football that he'll take last year's 5-6 team and turn them into a bunch capable of upsetting the Terrapins overnight? Give me a break. I'll grant that Maryland won't be what they were last year in the ACC, but the luck of the Irish will not be near enough to overcome the obvious talent gap here. Maryland by 14.

Wisconsin -3 at UNLV
Wisconsin is better than this. C'mon. UNLV lost half of their defensive starters, 4/5 of their offensive line, and went 4-7 last year (3-4 in the MWC). Wisconsin is coming off of a tough win at home and have the experience necessary to obliterate an average Rebel team. Wisconsin by 2 TD's, easily.

LA-Lafayette +31 at Texas A&M
Last year, did A&M cover vs. its weak non-conference opponents? Furthermore, did they cover against ANY opponent until midway through the season? Why should this year be any different? 31 is a huge spread and is asking a lot of an Aggie team that is essentially the same team that they were last year... a team that scored 30 points only once and whose largest margin of victory was 21 vs. an awful Notre Dame team. Whoop! Take the Cajuns and the points on this one.

North Texas +40 at Texas
I love the Longhorns, we all know this. We will crush UNT but not by 40. Allowing for a few mistakes on defense and a semi-conservative offense that needs a little time to get clicking in the first half, I see us winning by around 30- something points. However, if we're only up by 14-21 points at the end of quarter 2, I bet big on the second half line in our favor. That tends to be easy money. I would wait on this line to keep going up...Texas alumni love betting on their team. But give me the Mean Green for the game.

Louisville -13.5 vs. Kentucky
Bad Kentucky defense + excellent Louisville air attack = more points than the Cardinals will know what to do with. But even more importantly, Louisville's 10 returning defensive starters will probably give up no more than 1 point apiece (for a total of 10), if that. Louisville takes this one by 21+.

So there you have it: Monk's very unprofressional, gut-level picks.

I'd like very much to hear your thoughts on these games, as well as your thoughts on any other games I failed to address.

 

[CrazyHorse]

I really thought more would jump out at me when I first saw the lines but the only ones I like so far are:

Houston +7 vs Rice

Houston only scored 14 last year in a 21-14 loss and Rice ran all over them (who didn't?). However I think Houston will be much improved while Rice loses alot of starters. Houston supposedly has a much improved LB corps and hopefully they will play better vs the Rice option.

OU St +1 vs Louisiana Tech

Mostly a play on the fact Tech hasnt beaten a big12 school since 1994. OU St just barely won last year at home, and I think they will do enough to win this one on the road.

ECU -14 vs Duke

Was hoping for 13.5 but Duke should be as bad as usual and lost their starting QB and TE this summer. ECU may not have near the talent as LY, but still enough to cover this spread and I am sure they will be reminded how they loss to Wake Forest as a double digit fav in their 1st game LY.

Once a total comes out on the WIS/UNLV game I will take the over if it is close to what I think the total will be. I think Fresno wouldv'e scored more on the badgers had WR Berrian stayed in the game last week. Also think Bollinger will be more in sync w/ his WR's and UNLV has their starting MLB out 3-4 weeks.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Maryland +3 vs. Notre Dame
No way. I'm simply dumbfounded at this line. I realize that the line is shifting in ND's favor because of the absence of Perry however the Terps seem to have enough depth at TB/FB to run the ball on poor Notre Dame when you consider that almost the entire Terrapin O-line returns this year. Is Tyrone Willingham going to so vastly change Irish football that he'll take last year's 5-6 team and turn them into a bunch capable of upsetting the Terrapins overnight? Give me a break. I'll grant that Maryland won't be what they were last year in the ACC, but the luck of the Irish will not be near enough to overcome the obvious talent gap here. Maryland by 14.

Monk, enjoyed your writeups as I haven't had a chance yet to study the lines. I agree that Perry isn't a superstar worthy of a move from -2 to +3, but Maryland wasn't that great of a team last year. They used turnovers and ball control to win games much like Notre Dame did in 2000. But talent wise, they were overmatched against everybody they played outside of Duke, Wake and Troy State. Their not going to surprise anyone this year. Notre Dame will have a good defense this year, they were good last year, but the offense continued to put them into some bad spots.

The reason I think that Notre Dame has a chance in this game is that they have film to prepare for against Maryland. Maryland doesn't know the offense that the Irish will run because it won't be like last year and the Irish don't have a quarterback who can make plays in Stanford's offense. Once there is film on this Notre Dame team, fade away and I think that you will do well, but this is the game that the Irish should cover. To many questions for me to make a bet, but way to many questions for me to go against.

GL

 

[mw]

Was hoping for 13.5 but Duke should be as bad as usual and lost their starting QB and TE this summer. ECU may not have near the talent as LY, but still enough to cover this spread and I am sure they will be reminded how they loss to Wake Forest as a double digit fav in their 1st game LY.

That's one side of the coin. The other side is that ECU has Wake on deck and may be looking ahead to the chance at revenge.

 

[CrazyHorse]

mw,

didnt even see they have WF after the Duke game, thanks for pointing it out. I will have to look closer at that one during the week. I see the Houston line is now +7.5, so I think I will make it a play. Think Houston keeps it close or maybe gets the outright win.

 

[genosays]

Trouble for my Jayhawks

Trouble for my Jayhawks

Love the Iowa State play over Kansas. As everyone knows Cyclones looked good versus Florida State here in KC and Jayhawks are looking at a long season. Mangino might get KU looking better by year's end, but don't see them having much success early on. Iowa State should roll it up at home with QB Seneca Wallace going wild.

 

[Ronnie]

Probably going to make only a few plays on Saturday:


Louisville -13' Really think this game will be a blowout. Kentucky on probation( no bowl game, no nothing).

MTSU +20 My alma matter will come to play. Lots of good athletes on this team. I also think Alabama is looking ahead to Oklahoma.

Wyoming +31' No Kelley Washington means more running for the Vols.


Good Luck to all!!!!

 

[Felonious Monk]

I am going with the research and betting on SMU this weekend to cover the -11.5 against Navy. Navy didn't win a game last year, only return 4 on defense (of course with a team that bad you kind of want them to come back) and are only returning 5 on offense including 2 on the O-Line and a new QB and backfield.

The players love new coach Phil Bennet, and the alumni do too, so the turnout for the first game should be good. The Ponies have a really good running back and although QB is a question mark, he takes care of the ball and won't kill you with turnovers. I believe SMU is going to run and run and then run some more until they are stopped, which with Navy will be never. I believe SMU can win by 4 touchdowns.

Ronnie,

I'd be careful on that Wyoming play. My gut says Tennessee will cover in a big way vs. Wyoming. I mean, c'mon, it's WYOMING for crying out loud. They went 0-7 in the powerhouse Mountain West last year. I highly doubt that Washington's absence will hurt their ability to put up a huge number of points. He isn't their only WR talent, and Clausen will spread the ball around like a champ.

Then again, I'm not touching this one for the simple reason that they could come out of the gate slowly (not because of any particular player's absence, but moreso because of OL coordination issues, mis-timings on routes, etc.). I'm not putting up my money on Tennessee's ability to come out firing on all cylinders. Seems too risky for my blood.

If I WERE to bet, though, I'd lay the points and take Phat Phil.

 

[Ronnie]

Thanks Monk, just found out Wyoming RB will not play because of some team violation. I'm taking Wyoming off of my plays.