Okinawa Open

[DOGS THAT BARK]

going to try an outright in this closer of season

Hoch 33/1 e/w @ skybet

dropping in class angle--
youv'e had Frost and Pavin in similiar class drops past 2 weeks and each was right up there each week--Hoch by comparison is in weaker field yet and won as much this year in 17 events as Pavin and Frost did collectively in 50 events.
Travel is concern and if weather turns cold you can forget him. Watched him and Perry in Franklin Shootout last month and he looked pretty sharp.

KAWAGISHI, Ryoken @ GG --31.00 was another strong consideration, and might add later if place only available.

Will be pulling for brother Stan to edge over that 400 unit mark this week--an AWESOME accomplishment :clap:

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Hideto Tanihara to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Opting for home players in this end-of-year, though start-of-new-season event. Tanihara is the defending champion, though he did win this event on a course a few miles away from Naha Golf Club, and he has shown a return of form recently with two top-5 finishes in his last three starts, including the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament which has had by far the strongest field on the Japan Tour this season. He ranked 2nd in greens in regulation that week and he can play as well this week, he should certainly secure another top-5 finish.

Hideki Kase to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Take out the Casio World Open and Dunlop Phoenix Tournament which are special events on this Tour because of their strong international field and Kase has been in a major player on the Japan Tour recently. He showed the first signs of this current form in July and has since recorded nine top-10 finishes, including one win and was in the top-2 all week for the season-ending JT Cup until a late falter a couple of weeks ago. Clearly playing well enough to contend against this weaker field.

Keiichiro Fukabori to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
No doubting Fukabori's form either. He had been in first place just ahead of Kase heading into the last round of the JT Cup, but he also faltered on the last day. He ranked 1st in greens in regulation this week and, taking out the Taiheiyo Masters and the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament for their strong international fields, Fukabori has ranked in the top-10 in greens in regulation in his last eight tournaments. Playing that well from tee-to-green, it only takes a moderately warm putter to challenge for the title and with the event being played on a new course, basic tee-to-green should be central as the players slowly learn the greens at Naha GC.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Yong-Eun Yang to beat Scott Hoch -130 @ Five Dimes [2pts]
Too much home advantage here for one of Japan's most in-form players. Hoch has played once in Japan in the last five years and not in a full Tour event since the PGA Championship in Japan. Should be easy if the weather turns cold!

Prayad Marksaeng to beat Thaworn Wiratchant -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [3pts]
Had this play a few weeks ago and will back it again. Marksaeng has a 6-3-0 h2h record against Wiratchant in 2004 and showed good form to finish 3rd last week in the Volvo Masters of Asia. He is also a regular on the Japan Tour and that should bring some home advantage over a player who played in this country only once.

Thammanoon Srirot to beat Boonchu Ruangkit -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [3pts]
Same here. Apart from dominating this matchup over the past four years and finishing ahead of Ruangkit in each of their last six common events, Srirot has been a regular on the Japan Tour this year securing four top-10 finishes. Ruangkit did compete on this Tour in 2001, but missed two-thirds of his cuts and has rarely been back.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

will add a 72 hole @ Cbet
Fukabori -110 over "Kiyoshi" Miyazato

Believe they intended "Yusaku" Miyazato
hoever Fukabori may be scratched

[CST] [AB] Book Closing: 15 Dec 2004 17:29


1. MIYAZATO, Kiyoshi
2. FUKABORI, Keiichiro 1.90
1.90

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

added Kawagishi to place 6/1 top 5 @ IAS this morning with Jaidee & Fukabori scratched.

and a few 1st rd's with 1st stated being selection

HIDETO TANIHARA (1ST RND) -118 RYOKEN KAWAGISHI
TAICHI TESHIMA (1ST RND) -110 PRAYAD MARKSAENG
THAWORN WIRATCHANT (1ST RND) -115 BOONCHU RUANGKIT

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Did ok yesterday will try for repeat
2nd rd plays
12/16/04 RYOKEN KAWAGISHI (2ND RND) -124 HIDEKI KASE (2ND RND) $62.00 $50.00
12/16/04 NOBUHIRO MASUDA (2ND RND) -115 KIYOSHI MIYAZATO (2ND RND) $57.50 $50.00
12/16/04 KANAME YOKOO (2ND RND) -120 KATSUMUNE IMAI (2ND RND) $60.00 $50.00

 

[Stanley]

Further outright play (6pts):

Jeev Milkha Singh to win 2/5 @ SkyBet and Bet365
This is purely a hedge play on Kase, nothing more; the second hedge play on an outright selection this season. So ignore if not on Kase already. The final event of the season and the target of 400pts profit is very close. It either needs Kase to win the event or Yong-Eun Yang to make up a three-shot deficit on Scott Hoch in the one remaining matchup. Despite Kase being in sole 2nd place at the moment, the odds are heavily tipped against either one happening, so will side with the player with a four-shot lead and who closed strongly in the 3rd round. Had he faltered, there may have been more hope for Kase, but four shots is a comfortable margin. With this maximum stake hedge play, Kase only needs to remain in the top-five for the 400pts threshold to be reached; it would be a poor way to end the season if such a great effort from Kase came up just too short.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I'll be pulling for Kase also as I have some of that cheese in trap also but will pulling hardest to see you reach 400
Agree Singh has been steady and will be hard to catch--but if he happens to spit the bit a lot can happen as it brings a slew of em in the mix.
Maybe I can put some good karma on Kase by opposing him in match

a few 4th rd plays--and hedges
Kawagishi -125 over Kase
K. holds slim 4th rd edge on events common this year but of late been all K. with 4th rd margins 5-9 and 13 strokes respectively in last 3 events.--also hedge if Kase falters.

Kawagishi +148 over Imano and Kuboya
He would be 2-0-1 in this 3ball match in last 3 outings winning the last 2 by 6 strokes over Imano and 14 over Kuboya

Imano -120 over Inque
Events in common Nov 4th rd 69-70 vs cut- 75
also hedge on above 3ball


Teshima-120 over Yeh
last 3 events in common 4th rd 69-71-70 vs 73-cut-77

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -4.92pts

Tanihara 38th
Kase 2nd
Fukabori dns
Singh 2nd

That will teach me to deviate from my standard betting tactics! I tried to greatly improve the odds of reaching a season target rather than looking at what was best on an event basis and it backfired. Singh let this event slip in the final holes where he started with a double-bogey. But still only needing to par the last hole to force a playoff with a player who had never even achieved a top-10 finish until now, he had a bogey. What irony that Yang beat Hoch in the matchup and I would have finished the season up 400pts until the Singh play!

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-0-0; +8.00pts

Yang/Hoch WON by 3
Marksaeng/Wiratchant WON by 11
Srirot/Ruangkit WON by 8

Pleasing sweep to end the season. Two comfortable wins at the cut and a last day charge to secure the third win. Just a pity that I didn't trust Yang to make the that final round deficit.

Japan Tour ytd
Outrights: 5-28; -9.54pts
Matchups: 15-5; +17.12pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 103-417; +287.89pts
Matchups: 438-332; +107.14pts