Okla/tex line move
- Thread starter HoopsGuru
- Start date
I played OU -13 earlier in the week. Not sure what's up with the line movement. My site now has it at -12. I think OU rolls Texas and covers easily.
Seeing 11...has to be some news floating around. Hard to believe Texas getting steamed with that D. Coaching mismatch and OU has absolutely torched them last few years. if no news I will be all over OU.
I have had suspicion of Vegas doing "false flag" reverse line moves recently, knowing that many "serious" handicappers look for this trend now...and it WORKS!! Cappers see the reverse line move and they start pounding away without looking at the game itself. 5 years ago you could hit 60% or higher just playing reverse line moves...Not anymore.
I followed reverse line move pretty closely for a while and one thin I remember is that when the line opened over 12, the reverse move did not pay off nearly the rate that it did for lines that opened from 3 to 11.
Also consider that a line of 13 (the opening line here) is not much different than a line of 11 (where it is now). Still need 2 TD's to cover and 1 TD + 1FG does not.
Remember the game is determined on the field, not the the odds board.
GL my friends...
I take more seriously a line move that crosses a major number (3,7, 10, 14, 17, 21) much more seriously than ones that don't.
Same thing happening to Texas Tech this week. 16 to 14.5
