If Somebody Asked Me I?d Say...
Don?t Say I Didn?t Warn You
by Mort Olshan
Dwight Eisenhower was president, The Bridge on the River Kwai won the Oscar, and gasoline was 30 cents a gallon. Sputnik I was launched by the Soviet Union; Ford introduced the Edsel. And Sports Illustrated was three years old, Playboy a year old.
The year was 1957. It marked the publishing debut of The Gold Sheet. Just think, three great publishing empires initiated within a span of just four years! Would you believe two great empires? Upon reflection, perhaps I?d be better off had I been more interested in sex than sports. In fact, my wife has told me that for most of our 50 years together. C?est la vie.
As we embark on The Gold Sheet?s 45th year, truth be known, there have been few regrets, if you don?t count some of the losers.
In addition to offering our best insights into this vicissitudinous business over the past four-plus decades, we have tried to educate sports bettors to the realities and possibilities. Ad nauseam, many readers have said. But the exaggerated winning claims of the hucksters in this business continue to escalate each season, leading some neophytes to ask themselves, ?don?t these guys ever lose?? We have repeatedly tried to alert novice bettors to the dangers of being trapped by unscrupulous hustlers.
Let us assume that a sports bettor makes 100 bets this football season.
And let us further hypothesize that 50% of those bets will be decided by impossible to predict factors. This 50% hypothesis represents the best thinking on the subject by the most experienced and knowledgeable players in the country. You just can?t predict fumbles, interceptions, last-minute ?meaningless? touchdowns, and the hundreds of other undivinable factors which influence the outcome of so many games. This translates into 25 winners and 25 losers for those 50 random decisions. Now let us assume that the other 50 games are relatively predictable, and through hard work and research our bettor is able to accurately forecast an impressive seven out of ten of the remaining 50 games. Translated, that?s 35 winners and 15 losers, or 70%. Adding the 25 winners from the pure luck situations to the 35 winners launched by the predictable category, we find our bettor winding up with a 60 percent winning average.
Pure Luck: 25-15
Predictable: 35-25
Total: 60-40
And before you slough off 60%, you should realize this: if you started the season with a $3,000 bankroll and picked a consistent 60% winners ? that is, if you totaled exactly 60 winners in 100 bets ? even if you bet as little as $100 per game, you would end up with a profit of $1,600 (60 winners x $100, minus 40 losers x $110). That?s a return on investment of 43% on your original $3,000 bankroll.
You would be hard-pressed to find another investment with that rate of return. And, of course, if you had bet $200 per game over those 100 games, the same 60% winners would net you $3,200, which is a 107% return on investment.
We are aware that 107% doesn?t excite everyone and that 60% is likely to turn off some unrealistic fans. I remember asking a veteran journalist working for a nationally respected news publication whether he?d settle for this decent winning record or prefer to take his chances that he?d do better on his own. Thinking about it for less than a minute, he opted to try his luck his way.
If you must win every week, then perhaps you should consider some other action. And if you hurt so badly when you lose, you should re-examine why you are involved at all. In more than 50 years as an intense observer and participant, I have never seen anyone ever achieve a 70%?80% winning record that involved more than one hundred picks. Take a look at the various advertisements that appear in the football annuals this season. You will find very few of these guys claiming they haven?t won at least 70% of the time. It?s just not that kind of a game, and it never was! Anyone who tries to tell you different is a fraud!
Finally, for those who don?t believe me, should you buy into these outrageous promises, don?t say I didn?t warn you. Just don?t get burned too badly. There?s a long season ahead to enjoy and, hopefully, to profit from. But you?ve got to set reasonable goals. Otherwise you?re going to be awfully frustrated and depressed when those crazy promises turn out to be a cruel illusion.
Don?t Say I Didn?t Warn You
by Mort Olshan
Dwight Eisenhower was president, The Bridge on the River Kwai won the Oscar, and gasoline was 30 cents a gallon. Sputnik I was launched by the Soviet Union; Ford introduced the Edsel. And Sports Illustrated was three years old, Playboy a year old.
The year was 1957. It marked the publishing debut of The Gold Sheet. Just think, three great publishing empires initiated within a span of just four years! Would you believe two great empires? Upon reflection, perhaps I?d be better off had I been more interested in sex than sports. In fact, my wife has told me that for most of our 50 years together. C?est la vie.
As we embark on The Gold Sheet?s 45th year, truth be known, there have been few regrets, if you don?t count some of the losers.
In addition to offering our best insights into this vicissitudinous business over the past four-plus decades, we have tried to educate sports bettors to the realities and possibilities. Ad nauseam, many readers have said. But the exaggerated winning claims of the hucksters in this business continue to escalate each season, leading some neophytes to ask themselves, ?don?t these guys ever lose?? We have repeatedly tried to alert novice bettors to the dangers of being trapped by unscrupulous hustlers.
Let us assume that a sports bettor makes 100 bets this football season.
And let us further hypothesize that 50% of those bets will be decided by impossible to predict factors. This 50% hypothesis represents the best thinking on the subject by the most experienced and knowledgeable players in the country. You just can?t predict fumbles, interceptions, last-minute ?meaningless? touchdowns, and the hundreds of other undivinable factors which influence the outcome of so many games. This translates into 25 winners and 25 losers for those 50 random decisions. Now let us assume that the other 50 games are relatively predictable, and through hard work and research our bettor is able to accurately forecast an impressive seven out of ten of the remaining 50 games. Translated, that?s 35 winners and 15 losers, or 70%. Adding the 25 winners from the pure luck situations to the 35 winners launched by the predictable category, we find our bettor winding up with a 60 percent winning average.
Pure Luck: 25-15
Predictable: 35-25
Total: 60-40
And before you slough off 60%, you should realize this: if you started the season with a $3,000 bankroll and picked a consistent 60% winners ? that is, if you totaled exactly 60 winners in 100 bets ? even if you bet as little as $100 per game, you would end up with a profit of $1,600 (60 winners x $100, minus 40 losers x $110). That?s a return on investment of 43% on your original $3,000 bankroll.
You would be hard-pressed to find another investment with that rate of return. And, of course, if you had bet $200 per game over those 100 games, the same 60% winners would net you $3,200, which is a 107% return on investment.
We are aware that 107% doesn?t excite everyone and that 60% is likely to turn off some unrealistic fans. I remember asking a veteran journalist working for a nationally respected news publication whether he?d settle for this decent winning record or prefer to take his chances that he?d do better on his own. Thinking about it for less than a minute, he opted to try his luck his way.
If you must win every week, then perhaps you should consider some other action. And if you hurt so badly when you lose, you should re-examine why you are involved at all. In more than 50 years as an intense observer and participant, I have never seen anyone ever achieve a 70%?80% winning record that involved more than one hundred picks. Take a look at the various advertisements that appear in the football annuals this season. You will find very few of these guys claiming they haven?t won at least 70% of the time. It?s just not that kind of a game, and it never was! Anyone who tries to tell you different is a fraud!
Finally, for those who don?t believe me, should you buy into these outrageous promises, don?t say I didn?t warn you. Just don?t get burned too badly. There?s a long season ahead to enjoy and, hopefully, to profit from. But you?ve got to set reasonable goals. Otherwise you?re going to be awfully frustrated and depressed when those crazy promises turn out to be a cruel illusion.
