Ole Miss at Mississippi State
I think this is an easy game to pick the winner and a hard game to handicap. Anyone who wants to take Mississippi State straight up should contact me IMMEDIATELY to arrange credit.
Mississippi State is a bad football team. They have no identity, no consistency and no character ? a perfect reflection of their coach, Jackie Sherrill. This is his last game, and the college football world will be a better place once this sad sack of sh*t is gone. Uh, wait, that doesn?t sound dispassionate, so let?s just pretend that I didn?t write that.
Defensively, Ole Miss is a lot like Miss St opponents Alabama, Auburn and Oregon, if those teams had absolutely no pass defense. This could play right into the hands of Fant, who under any other head coach with half a god-d*mn brain would be putting up decent numbers, but who under Jack*ss Sherrill can?t seem to get more than about 14 completions per game? Wait, wait, it will pass? I think it will pass?
Anyway, just because Ole Miss?s pass defense is lousy doesn?t mean Mississippi State will exploit it ? I really think they will just pretend that it is good, and play their usual incompetent game. I see Mississippi State rushing for about 110 yards on around 26 carries. I look for Fant (who will probably be replaced by York in the 4th because the head dumb*ss in charge couldn?t outcoach Tommy Tuberville, much less a real NCAA Div 1-A coach... sorry, I digress again) and company to put up a passing line like 19-37 for 150, with a TD and a couple of picks. What is this, maybe 10-14 points? Yeah, that seems about right.
I have no idea what Ole Miss is going to do. I don?t know if they will make one last pointless stab at positioning Eli as a Heisman candidate, or pull him early when they start to run away with it. I suspect the former, but am not sure. They?ll get their 40 rushes/ 120 yards in, and I would guess that they wouldn?t pull Eli before he gets his 3 TDs. Couple this performance with a gift or two from Miss St, and I see at least 30 points going up, and think the O/U on Ole Miss really should be about 38.
I tried to develop real numbers for Ole Miss?s performance, but they honestly have not faced a team like Miss St this year. My way just doesn?t work in situations like this. We?ve all seen games, particularly in-state rivalries, where the better team doesn?t want to ?show-up? their opponent. I don?t think that will happen here because bowl bids are still up for grabs and Sherrill is truly hated by a large number of folks in all walks of life, particularly football folks in Oxford, Austin, Tuscaloosa, Nome, Tikrit, Constantinople, Babylon, etc.
So it comes down to this. I cannot see Mississippi State, who hasn?t even won a road game this year (not even at Tulane) doing any better than they have been. If we assume 12 or so points for them, the question becomes, based on a 19 point spread, ?Will Ole Miss put up 31+ points?? I say count on it. I rate this at 3,227.3 stars. I?m betting my unit on Ole Miss -19.
I think this is an easy game to pick the winner and a hard game to handicap. Anyone who wants to take Mississippi State straight up should contact me IMMEDIATELY to arrange credit.
Mississippi State is a bad football team. They have no identity, no consistency and no character ? a perfect reflection of their coach, Jackie Sherrill. This is his last game, and the college football world will be a better place once this sad sack of sh*t is gone. Uh, wait, that doesn?t sound dispassionate, so let?s just pretend that I didn?t write that.
Defensively, Ole Miss is a lot like Miss St opponents Alabama, Auburn and Oregon, if those teams had absolutely no pass defense. This could play right into the hands of Fant, who under any other head coach with half a god-d*mn brain would be putting up decent numbers, but who under Jack*ss Sherrill can?t seem to get more than about 14 completions per game? Wait, wait, it will pass? I think it will pass?
Anyway, just because Ole Miss?s pass defense is lousy doesn?t mean Mississippi State will exploit it ? I really think they will just pretend that it is good, and play their usual incompetent game. I see Mississippi State rushing for about 110 yards on around 26 carries. I look for Fant (who will probably be replaced by York in the 4th because the head dumb*ss in charge couldn?t outcoach Tommy Tuberville, much less a real NCAA Div 1-A coach... sorry, I digress again) and company to put up a passing line like 19-37 for 150, with a TD and a couple of picks. What is this, maybe 10-14 points? Yeah, that seems about right.
I have no idea what Ole Miss is going to do. I don?t know if they will make one last pointless stab at positioning Eli as a Heisman candidate, or pull him early when they start to run away with it. I suspect the former, but am not sure. They?ll get their 40 rushes/ 120 yards in, and I would guess that they wouldn?t pull Eli before he gets his 3 TDs. Couple this performance with a gift or two from Miss St, and I see at least 30 points going up, and think the O/U on Ole Miss really should be about 38.
I tried to develop real numbers for Ole Miss?s performance, but they honestly have not faced a team like Miss St this year. My way just doesn?t work in situations like this. We?ve all seen games, particularly in-state rivalries, where the better team doesn?t want to ?show-up? their opponent. I don?t think that will happen here because bowl bids are still up for grabs and Sherrill is truly hated by a large number of folks in all walks of life, particularly football folks in Oxford, Austin, Tuscaloosa, Nome, Tikrit, Constantinople, Babylon, etc.
So it comes down to this. I cannot see Mississippi State, who hasn?t even won a road game this year (not even at Tulane) doing any better than they have been. If we assume 12 or so points for them, the question becomes, based on a 19 point spread, ?Will Ole Miss put up 31+ points?? I say count on it. I rate this at 3,227.3 stars. I?m betting my unit on Ole Miss -19.
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I think they have improved. They had a breakdown against Texas Tech. Remove that stat and they have had a respectable year.
